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New York, July 27, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) downgraded Petroleos Mexicanos' (PEMEX) corporate family rating and the senior unsecured ratings on the company's existing notes, as well as the ratings based on PEMEX's guarantee, to Ba3 from Ba2. Moody's also lowered PEMEX's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), which reflects its standalone credit strength, to caa3 from caa2. These rating actions were based on PEMEX'S high liquidity risk and increasing business risk as the company faces high debt maturities while it expands its refining capacity and production. Moody's believes that such strategy will generate higher refining operating losses in the short and medium term. The outlook on Pemex's ratings remains negative primarily given the negative outlook on the Mexico government's Baa1 rating.
Ratings downgraded as follows:
Downgrades:
..Issuer: Pemex Project Funding Master Trust
....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2
..Issuer: Petroleos Mexicanos
.... Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2
....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Pemex Project Funding Master Trust
....Outlook, Remains Negative
..Issuer: Petroleos Mexicanos
....Outlook, Remains Negative
RATINGS RATIONALE
PEMEX's Ba3 corporate family rating and caa3 BCA reflect Moody's view that the company's liquidity needs and negative free cash flow will rise in the next three years due to high debt maturities and lower operating cash flow derived from the expansion of its refining business, which has generated operating losses in the last several years (close to $17 billion in 2018-20, as reported). Although oil and gas production growth has been below management targets, Moody's acknowledges that PEMEX has been successful in reverting production and reserves declines in the last two years and believes that this trend will continue in 2021. However, Moody's expects that PEMEX's cash flow generation and credit metrics will deteriorate further in the next three years as the company increases fuel production, while grappling with limited capital investment ability, high debt maturities, and volatile oil and fuel prices.