Brazilian Airline Gol Outlook Revised To Stable From Positive On Higher Financing Risks; 'CCC+' Ratings Affirmed
- We now forecast for Brazil-based airline Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. (Gol) to take longer to deleverage, mostly because of much higher fuel prices, with debt to EBITDA at about 11x in 2022 and 6x-7x in 2023.
- Financing conditions have considerably worsened during 2022, and we believe Gol will need to finance its cash-flow deficits in 2023.
- On Aug. 22, 2022, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Gol to stable from positive and affirmed its global scale 'CCC+' issuer credit rating on the company. We lowered the national scale issuer credit rating on Gol to 'brBB' from 'brBB+'. We also affirmed our 'CCC+' issue-level rating on the senior unsecured notes and kept the '4' recovery rating unchanged, indicating our expectation of average (30%-50%; rounded estimate: 30%) recovery in the event of a payment default.
- The stable outlook incorporates our expectation of improved performance and leverage metrics in 2023 but also considerable free cash flow deficits and very high leverage of more than 6.0x through 2023.
SAO PAULO (S&P Global Ratings) Aug. 22, 2022—S&P Global Ratings took the ratings actions described above. Despite the absence of sizeable short-term maturities, a slower-than-expected recovery in margins and limited access to capital markets have heightened cash-flow risks. While during the first seven months of 2022, Gol's available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) rebounded considerably, the pace has been slower than our expectations last year. This, coupled with much higher fuel costs, will result in EBITDA of R$2.0 billion, down from our forecast of R$3.4 billion.
As of July 2022, Gol's domestic RPK jumped 52.4% and ASK by 58.3%. We expect both metrics to rise 52%-55% and 40%-44% for 2022, but demand and capacity to be still about 20% lower than 2019 levels. We forecast domestic air travel to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2023, but the international one might do so only by the end of 2024. Sound demand for domestic air travel, a more rational capacity management among all players, and gradual recovery of corporate travel have allowed Gol to increase fares substantially in 2022. We believe the much higher fares will partly offset the higher costs related mostly to the sharp jump in fuel prices and inflationary pressures on other costs. Amid much higher crude oil prices and jet-fuel crack spreads at historically-high levels, we estimate average fuel price per ASK will jump 58%-60% while revenue per available seat kilometers (RASK) by 30%-32% in 2022. We expect very strong top-line performance this year, with revenue soaring about 105%, but we now expect EBITDA margins to drop to 13%-14% from about 25% in our projections last year. As a result, cash-flow generation and leverage metrics will be weaker. We now expect debt to EBITDA to be about 11x and funds from operations (FFO) to debt of about 1.5% in 2022 and the former ratio would only fall to more sustainable levels of 6x-7x by the end of 2023.
Fears of an economic slowdown as central banks increase interest rates in response to high inflation, along with a strong U.S. dollar, and the resulting rapid increases in interest rates are tightening funding conditions for issuers. As a result, investors' risk aversion has increased, while access to credit markets for high-yield issuers in emerging markets has been very limited so far during the year. In response, has opted for a very rational capacity management, attempting to keep yields high and to protect cash. Additionally, the company focuses on working capital preservation and on trimming capital expenditures (capex). All these efforts, coupled with the capital increase under Gol's expanded codeshare agreement with American Airlines, have allowed Gol to maintain cash burn at minimum levels (R$92 million in the first half of 2022). We estimate that Gol's cash position will be sufficient at year-end. However, our base-case scenario assumes that the company would need additional financing during 2023. Despite expectations for improved operating performance, margins, and EBITDA, we forecast a cash-flow deficit amid operational revamp and because of high renegotiated lease expenses, reduction of payables and other accumulated liabilities during the past two years, maintenance, fleet transformation, and other capex needs.
ESG credit indicators: E-3, S-5, G-2
Social factors are a very negative consideration in our credit analysis of Gol, because of the pandemic-related financial hit. Its EBITDA and cash flows eroded and the company's adjusted debt has increased almost 23% since December 2019 to protect liquidity and fund operations during the pandemic. On the other hand, that only about 8% of Gol's pre-pandemic business consisted of international travel has allowed for a faster capacity and revenue recovery. However, we expect Gol to maintain high leverage, with debt to EBITDA above 6x through 2023. Environmental factors are a moderately negative consideration in our credit rating analysis of Gol. All airlines face long-term risk from potentially tighter GHG emissions regulation. Gol's average fleet age of about 11 years is in line with global average, but older than some of those of regional players. However, Gol is accelerating its fleet renewal plan to replace Boeing 737 NGs with 737 MAX, which will reduce fuel consumption, GHG emissions, and the average fleet age.