Moody's downgrades Takko's CFR to Caa3, outlook negative
Paris, January 19, 2023 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today downgraded to Caa3 from Caa2 the corporate family rating (CFR) of German apparel retailer Takko Fashion S.a r.l. (Takko or the company). Concurrently, Moody's has downgraded to Ca-PD from Caa2-PD the company's probability of default rating (PDR), and to Ca from Caa2 the rating on the EUR510 million backed senior secured notes due in November 2023 issued by Takko Luxembourg 2 S.C.A., a wholly owned subsidiary of Takko. The outlook has been changed to negative from stable for both entities.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action reflects the very high probability of a debt restructuring in the next 3 to 6 months as the company has not yet managed to refinance the EUR 80 million super senior term loan facility due May 2023 and the EUR 510 million backed senior secured notes due November 2023. Given the higher interest rates and wider credit spreads in today's capital markets compared to the last refinancing of the company in 2017, Takko's current capital structure appears unsustainable and therefore a balance sheet restructuring is highly likely.
On 11 January 2023 Takko published results for Q3 of fiscal 2022, ending October 2022. The company's reported EBITDA in the last twelve months to October 2022 is broadly in line with fiscal 2022, at around EUR230 million, but free cash flows in the first nine months of fiscal 2022 are negative at EUR68 million, mainly due to negative working capital movements. As a result the company's cash balance decreased to around EUR 101 million compared to EUR 234 million a year before. Setting aside the aforementioned debt maturities, Moody's expects the company's cash balance to further reduce and reach a low point in March/April 2023 as a result of the normal working capital seasonality, therefore stretching further the company's liquidity buffer. Moody's understands that the company has been strategically increasing its inventory levels and expects working capital movements to partially normalise in the next 12 months. However, as the company has not managed to generate meaningful free cash flows in recent years, the rating agency expects its free cash flows to remain very limited unless the company's interest burden reduces following a debt restructuring (which would only seem feasible in a scenario of material absolute debt reduction).
Moody's positively notes the company's ongoing revenue recovery despite challenging macreoeconomic conditions with revenues above pre pandemic levels in the last twelve months to October 2022. Moody's expects the company to also benefit from some favorable dynamics in the next 12 to 18 months, including relatively new inventory carried over from last year, increasing selling prices and lower freight rates. However, the rating agency expects these positive dynamics to be offset by decreasing volumes, as consumer purchasing power and confidence remain depressed, and the company has to cover high fixed costs, notably energy bills and salaries. On balance, Moody's expect the company's EBITDA to remain at least at the same level as fiscal 2022 in the next 12 to 18 months.