Rating Action:
Moody's changes Navistar outlook to positive; Ratings affirmed
22 May 2018
New York, May 22, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") affirmed the B3 Corporate Family Rating (CFR) and all other long-term ratings of Navistar International Corp. (Navistar), but changed the outlook to positive from stable. The company's Speculative Grade Liquidity rating is affirmed at SGL-3.
RATING RATIONALE
Navistar's ratings reflect expectations for the company to continue the significant operational and financial progress it has demonstrated. Key areas of improvement include: 1) the broad-based renewal of its truck and bus portfolio; 2) the resulting improvement in market share in key segments; 3) the significant reduction in used equipment inventory and warranty expenditures; and 4) the steady improvement in profitability. These achievements will enable Navistar to further benefit from rebounding demand in the North American medium and heavy truck markets. We expect that demand levels will remain healthy into 2019.
Navistar's competitive position is further enhanced by the strategic partnership with Volkswagen Truck and Bus (VWT&B). As part of this arrangement, VWT&B (Its parent company Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft, A3/Stable) has taken a 16.9% ownership position in Navistar, and entered into a joint purchasing program that should reduce Navistar's operating cost by $200 million annually by 2022.
Navistar's liquidity position is adequate. It is supported by a $1 billion cash and marketable security position, and a $125 million asset-backed revolver. In addition the company's internally generated cash flow should be able to fund all working capital and capital expenditure requirements during the next twelve months. The company's $1 billion in balance sheet cash provides adequate coverage for the $200 million in convertible debt maturing in October 2018, and the debt maturing in early 2019.
The key risk facing Navistar is the ongoing cyclicality in the North American truck market. Although the market will remain cyclical, the magnitude of demand swings will likely be less extreme than in the past. We expect this moderation to occur because future step-ups in emission regulation requirements will be less onerous than in the past. Consequently, the historic pre-buy in advance of new regulations will be less pronounced and will have less impact on overall demand.
Navistar must also contend with the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations. Virtually all of the company's class-8 trucks sold in the US and Canada are produced in Mexico.
The positive outlook reflects Navistar's prospects for continuing to strengthen its credit metrics due to its more competitive operating position, the recovery in the North American truck market, and the close strategic ties with VWT&B.
Navistar's ratings could be upgraded if the company continues to demonstrate a positive trend in earnings improvement and market share. Continued progress towards NAFTA negotiations that do not result in any significant additional burden to the company's cost position or competitiveness will help support an upgrade. Metrics that would support an upgrade include an ability to sustain an EBITA margin exceeding 4.5% and achieve EBITA/interest above 2x.
The rating could be lowered if there were material reversals in any of the key areas in which Navistar has been making progress including: market share, warranty costs, used truck inventory. An EBITA margin below 2.5% or an erosion in the liquidity position could contribute to a downgrade.