Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 2 (6 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione gionmorg
- Data di Inizio
mariarosa78
Forumer attivo
finalmente cala il sipario per due giorni.....amerai il finale......Buon Week end a Tutti......Grazie
Near
Forumer storico
avevo capito che teva avesse il colera (come valeant ancora un annetto fa)
ora torna potabile?
Near
Forumer storico
magari anche i bancari turchi, sempre in $
iguanito
Forumer storico
Quelli sono israeliani caro mio......Gli affari li sanno fareavevo capito che teva avesse il colera (come valeant ancora un annetto fa)
ora torna potabile?
iguanito
Forumer storico
Una ciofechina tedesca che va a buon fine.Una rarità. La ho anche io comunque.ricevuto dalla mia banca avviso di rimborso finale di Metalcorp....un sentito ringraziamento a chi più o meno un annetto fa l'aveva segnalato a 94
angy2008
Forumer storico
stesso ramo se ti piacciono gli israeliani ti suggerisco RedHill Biopharma praticamente una macchinetta mangiasoldi ovvero una slot dove perdi sempre, non ha bond ma mi ha mazzuolato con le azioni
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Fitch Places Turkish Banks' Ratings on Watch Negative
01 JUN 2018 11:31 AM ET
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s): Fitch Places Turkish Banks’ Ratings on Watch Negative
Fitch Ratings-London-01 June 2018: Fitch Ratings has placed 25 Turkish banks' Long-Term Foreign-Currency (FC) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and 25 banks' Viability Ratings (VRs) on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). A full list of rating actions is available at www.fitchratings.com or at the link above.
The RWNs placed on all Turkish banks' VRs reflect risks to their performance, asset quality, capitalisation and, in most cases, liquidity and funding profiles following a recent period of increased market volatility. This has seen the Turkish lira depreciate against the US dollar-euro basket by about 20% this year with the authorities responding by raising the key policy rate by 300bp to 16.5%.
The RWNs on the IDRs of state-owned commercial banks and two development banks additionally consider the greater potential for stress in Turkey's external finances, which could hinder the authorities' ability to provide support in FC.
The RWNs on foreign-owned banks' 'BBB-' IDRs reflect Fitch's intention to reassess whether it remains appropriate to rate these institutions above the sovereign (BB+/Stable), given potential intervention in the banking system if there is marked deterioration in Turkey's external finances.
Fitch will resolve the RWNs based on both an analysis of the impact on banks' credit profiles of the deterioration in the operating environment that has already been observed and the extent to which the operating environment deteriorates further or stabilises in the near term. Unless there is further marked worsening of economic and financial market conditions, any downgrades are likely to be limited to one notch, in most cases. Fitch expects to resolve the RWNs in the next six months.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
VRs OF ALL BANKS
Turkish banks' VRs, which range from 'bb+' to 'b', reflect their exposure to the relatively high-risk Turkish operating environment, but also their largely satisfactory financial metrics, reflected in moderate non-performing loans (NPLs), solid profitability, reasonable capitalisation and acceptable liquidity buffers. Banks rated 'bb+' or 'bb' have stronger franchises and in most cases longer records of stable and sound performance. Banks rated 'bb-', 'b+' or 'b' have narrower franchises and, to varying degrees, have exhibited greater volatility in their results.
The RWNs on all 25 Turkish banks' VRs reflect increased risks to their asset quality, profitability and capitalisation given heightened operating environment pressures resulting from currency and interest-rate volatility. It also considers risks to most banks' funding and liquidity profiles given the reliance, to varying degrees, on external FC wholesale funding and pressure on lira funding costs.
Fitch believes that immediate risks to Turkey's macroeconomic and financial stability have reduced following the increase in the policy rate, the announced simplification of the monetary policy framework and the resulting moderate recent recovery of the exchange rate. However, the still significant fall in the exchange rate, the rise in the interest rate (and the stated readiness of the Turkish authorities to raise this further if needed) and the negative impact of both of these on economic growth are likely to result in deterioration in banks' financial metrics. Risks to financial stability also remain significant, given the possibility that policy predictability will come under pressure after June's presidential elections, and in view of Turkey's need to meet a large external financing requirement in tougher global financial conditions.
Asset-quality risks for banks have increased due to generally high FC lending (equal to about 37% of sector loans) and the potential impact of local-currency depreciation on often weakly hedged borrowers' ability to service their debt. Higher interest rates (which could affect lira borrowers' debt service capacity) and weaker economic growth could also weigh on loan performance. Fitch had expected GDP growth of 4.1% in 2018 and 4.7% in 2019, but anticipates revising downwards these forecasts following the recent volatility. Exposures to the construction and energy sectors and high borrower concentrations are also significant sources of risks at many banks.
NPL ratios have in most cases remained broadly stable in recent quarters, but the emergence of some big-ticket problematic exposures (notably on the books of the largest banks in the sector) and growth in group 2 watch list loans (partly explained by banks' transition to IFRS 9 in 1Q18) suggest the potential for future increases in NPLs. The sector NPL ratio (loans overdue by more than 90 days) was 2.9% at end-1Q18, with reserve coverage of 119%.
Fitch expects sector profitability to moderately weaken in 2018 due to higher funding costs (following the policy rate rise), slower credit growth (reflecting the reduction in Credit Guarantee Fund (CGF) stimulus, the snap elections and lower GDP growth) and higher impairment charges. Performance could deteriorate more significantly in case of a marked weakening of asset quality. The sector return on average equity was a solid 14.7% in 2017 and 15.9% in 1Q18, supported by CGF-driven loan growth (21% for the sector in 2017) solid margins and manageable impairment charges.
Capital ratios are under pressure from lira depreciation (which inflates FC risk-weighted assets) and higher interest rates (which will result in negative revaluations of government bond portfolios). Potential asset-quality deterioration also represents a risk to banks' capital positions, but strong pre-impairment profit provides most banks with a considerable buffer to absorb credit losses through income statements.
01 JUN 2018 11:31 AM ET
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s): Fitch Places Turkish Banks’ Ratings on Watch Negative
Fitch Ratings-London-01 June 2018: Fitch Ratings has placed 25 Turkish banks' Long-Term Foreign-Currency (FC) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and 25 banks' Viability Ratings (VRs) on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). A full list of rating actions is available at www.fitchratings.com or at the link above.
The RWNs placed on all Turkish banks' VRs reflect risks to their performance, asset quality, capitalisation and, in most cases, liquidity and funding profiles following a recent period of increased market volatility. This has seen the Turkish lira depreciate against the US dollar-euro basket by about 20% this year with the authorities responding by raising the key policy rate by 300bp to 16.5%.
The RWNs on the IDRs of state-owned commercial banks and two development banks additionally consider the greater potential for stress in Turkey's external finances, which could hinder the authorities' ability to provide support in FC.
The RWNs on foreign-owned banks' 'BBB-' IDRs reflect Fitch's intention to reassess whether it remains appropriate to rate these institutions above the sovereign (BB+/Stable), given potential intervention in the banking system if there is marked deterioration in Turkey's external finances.
Fitch will resolve the RWNs based on both an analysis of the impact on banks' credit profiles of the deterioration in the operating environment that has already been observed and the extent to which the operating environment deteriorates further or stabilises in the near term. Unless there is further marked worsening of economic and financial market conditions, any downgrades are likely to be limited to one notch, in most cases. Fitch expects to resolve the RWNs in the next six months.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
VRs OF ALL BANKS
Turkish banks' VRs, which range from 'bb+' to 'b', reflect their exposure to the relatively high-risk Turkish operating environment, but also their largely satisfactory financial metrics, reflected in moderate non-performing loans (NPLs), solid profitability, reasonable capitalisation and acceptable liquidity buffers. Banks rated 'bb+' or 'bb' have stronger franchises and in most cases longer records of stable and sound performance. Banks rated 'bb-', 'b+' or 'b' have narrower franchises and, to varying degrees, have exhibited greater volatility in their results.
The RWNs on all 25 Turkish banks' VRs reflect increased risks to their asset quality, profitability and capitalisation given heightened operating environment pressures resulting from currency and interest-rate volatility. It also considers risks to most banks' funding and liquidity profiles given the reliance, to varying degrees, on external FC wholesale funding and pressure on lira funding costs.
Fitch believes that immediate risks to Turkey's macroeconomic and financial stability have reduced following the increase in the policy rate, the announced simplification of the monetary policy framework and the resulting moderate recent recovery of the exchange rate. However, the still significant fall in the exchange rate, the rise in the interest rate (and the stated readiness of the Turkish authorities to raise this further if needed) and the negative impact of both of these on economic growth are likely to result in deterioration in banks' financial metrics. Risks to financial stability also remain significant, given the possibility that policy predictability will come under pressure after June's presidential elections, and in view of Turkey's need to meet a large external financing requirement in tougher global financial conditions.
Asset-quality risks for banks have increased due to generally high FC lending (equal to about 37% of sector loans) and the potential impact of local-currency depreciation on often weakly hedged borrowers' ability to service their debt. Higher interest rates (which could affect lira borrowers' debt service capacity) and weaker economic growth could also weigh on loan performance. Fitch had expected GDP growth of 4.1% in 2018 and 4.7% in 2019, but anticipates revising downwards these forecasts following the recent volatility. Exposures to the construction and energy sectors and high borrower concentrations are also significant sources of risks at many banks.
NPL ratios have in most cases remained broadly stable in recent quarters, but the emergence of some big-ticket problematic exposures (notably on the books of the largest banks in the sector) and growth in group 2 watch list loans (partly explained by banks' transition to IFRS 9 in 1Q18) suggest the potential for future increases in NPLs. The sector NPL ratio (loans overdue by more than 90 days) was 2.9% at end-1Q18, with reserve coverage of 119%.
Fitch expects sector profitability to moderately weaken in 2018 due to higher funding costs (following the policy rate rise), slower credit growth (reflecting the reduction in Credit Guarantee Fund (CGF) stimulus, the snap elections and lower GDP growth) and higher impairment charges. Performance could deteriorate more significantly in case of a marked weakening of asset quality. The sector return on average equity was a solid 14.7% in 2017 and 15.9% in 1Q18, supported by CGF-driven loan growth (21% for the sector in 2017) solid margins and manageable impairment charges.
Capital ratios are under pressure from lira depreciation (which inflates FC risk-weighted assets) and higher interest rates (which will result in negative revaluations of government bond portfolios). Potential asset-quality deterioration also represents a risk to banks' capital positions, but strong pre-impairment profit provides most banks with a considerable buffer to absorb credit losses through income statements.