eh la madonna che prezzone, dove hai acquistato dal desk di goldman?
Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 2 (7 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione gionmorg
- Data di Inizio
AAA+
Forumer attivo
Ho il numero diretto di Blankfeineh la madonna che prezzone, dove hai acquistato dal desk di goldman?
Maio72
Follow the white rabbit
Near
Forumer storico
Che scossa positiva dovrebbero dare?Sinceramente non riesco a capire come mai il prezzo del bond Moby sia così basso da un po' di tempo a questa parte e come mai notizie del genere non abbiano scosso (intendo in senso positivo) il titolo....
Mettere la sede legale su di un'isola servita dalle loro navi (tirrenia, non so se mi spiego, ne hai mai preso una?
) spero usino l'aereo per andare sul continente Ps: giornata di acquisti per tutti
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Congo, Republic of
Fitch Affirms Republic of Congo at 'CC'
20 JUN 2018 8:29 AM ET
Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-20 June 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Congo's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'CC'.
A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The Republic of Congo's ratings reflect a severe liquidity shortage, a weak sovereign balance sheet and weak public financial management (PFM) and track record of debt repayment. Very low governance and development indicators are also key constraints for the rating.
Congo is still contending with an intense strain on liquidity. The recovery in oil revenues from higher prices and the rebound in production volumes coupled with fiscal consolidation will result in the large external and budget deficits registered in 2014-2017 shifting to surplus in 2018 and 2019. However, financing needs will remain sizable owing to the concentration of maturities on public debt over the coming three years and the accumulation of large government arrears, while funding options have narrowed sharply. The relief from the oil sector will be temporary as we project oil production will start declining again in 2020 and the risks of fiscal slippages ahead of the 2021 presidential elections is high.
Financing needs will average 16.4% of GDP per year in 2018-2020 according to our estimates based on official statistics. External debt maturities will average 10.4% of GDP per year while net repayments on domestic debt will average 5.7% of GDP. Arrears on external debt were 9% of GDP at end-2017, in addition to 22% of GDP of domestic arrears mostly on public wages, pensions and payments to suppliers, based on government estimates. An audit of domestic arrears commissioned by the government in March is still ongoing.
Fiscal buffers are depleted, while access to financing has been drastically tightened. Statutory advances from BEAC, the central bank of the CEMAC monetary union, have been frozen since end-2016. Congo's issuances of CFA-franc denominated debt have been undersubscribed. This is attributable to the regional market's shallowness, tight liquidity conditions in CEMAC, regulatory constraints on bank holdings of sovereign debt and possibly risk aversion towards the sovereign. Access to bilateral official loans has reportedly been cut due to concerns over debt sustainability and governance shortcomings that have also held back an agreement with the IMF on a possible financial support programme.
The government expects an IMF arrangement to be approved in the coming weeks although renewed delays in the negotiations cannot be excluded, in our view. While the government has long deferred the required fiscal adjustment to the collapse in oil revenues, the 2018 budget introduced substantial cuts to public spending. Some modest progress has been achieved on governance reforms with the dissolution of several utilities and their replacement with public companies and the endorsement by the government of a draft bill to improve the financial transparency of the national oil company, SNPC.
Fitch deems the implementation risks of a possible IMF programme to be high. PFM deficiencies and data gaps will impair the execution and monitoring of fiscal consolidation and reforms. Deep-rooted institutional shortcomings are underscored by Congo's ranking of 161 over 180 countries on Transparency International's corruption index and very weak governance indicators, which are the third lowest among Fitch-rated sovereigns.
If an agreement is reached, IMF support could catalyse additional official funding. However, debt restructuring will remain likely as we expect total financing under the programme to fall short of Congo's sizable needs over the coming years. The government has started negotiations with external creditors over a possible restructuring of loans owed to bilateral official creditors, mainly China, and oil traders. We expect these negotiations will likely result in a temporary suspension of debt service payments and possibly some maturity extensions rather than nominal haircuts.
We understand that the authorities aim to exclude their outstanding 2029 Eurobond and five-year local-currency bond from any debt restructuring operation. Bondholders are exposed to the risk of disruption of payments due to the structural weaknesses of PFM or from legal actions initiated against the sovereign by third parties. These risks are illustrated by two missed payments on Congo's Eurobond since June 2016 that led Fitch to downgrade the sovereign to 'RD' (Restricted Default) twice as bondholders received their payments only after the grace period elapsed.
General government (GG) debt was 119% of GDP at end-December 2017 according to official statistics, including the aforementioned arrears of 31% of GDP. Some uncertainty persists regarding the actual level of public debt resulting from incomplete data on arrears, past recourse to opaque financing schemes, including commodity-backed transactions, and weak transparency on the balance sheets of state-owned enterprises, including SNPC. Based on currently available data, we project GG debt to decline to 105% of GDP in 2019 and rise again in 2020. These projections do not take into account the impact of a possible loan restructuring on debt dynamics.
Fitch Affirms Republic of Congo at 'CC'
20 JUN 2018 8:29 AM ET
Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-20 June 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Congo's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'CC'.
A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The Republic of Congo's ratings reflect a severe liquidity shortage, a weak sovereign balance sheet and weak public financial management (PFM) and track record of debt repayment. Very low governance and development indicators are also key constraints for the rating.
Congo is still contending with an intense strain on liquidity. The recovery in oil revenues from higher prices and the rebound in production volumes coupled with fiscal consolidation will result in the large external and budget deficits registered in 2014-2017 shifting to surplus in 2018 and 2019. However, financing needs will remain sizable owing to the concentration of maturities on public debt over the coming three years and the accumulation of large government arrears, while funding options have narrowed sharply. The relief from the oil sector will be temporary as we project oil production will start declining again in 2020 and the risks of fiscal slippages ahead of the 2021 presidential elections is high.
Financing needs will average 16.4% of GDP per year in 2018-2020 according to our estimates based on official statistics. External debt maturities will average 10.4% of GDP per year while net repayments on domestic debt will average 5.7% of GDP. Arrears on external debt were 9% of GDP at end-2017, in addition to 22% of GDP of domestic arrears mostly on public wages, pensions and payments to suppliers, based on government estimates. An audit of domestic arrears commissioned by the government in March is still ongoing.
Fiscal buffers are depleted, while access to financing has been drastically tightened. Statutory advances from BEAC, the central bank of the CEMAC monetary union, have been frozen since end-2016. Congo's issuances of CFA-franc denominated debt have been undersubscribed. This is attributable to the regional market's shallowness, tight liquidity conditions in CEMAC, regulatory constraints on bank holdings of sovereign debt and possibly risk aversion towards the sovereign. Access to bilateral official loans has reportedly been cut due to concerns over debt sustainability and governance shortcomings that have also held back an agreement with the IMF on a possible financial support programme.
The government expects an IMF arrangement to be approved in the coming weeks although renewed delays in the negotiations cannot be excluded, in our view. While the government has long deferred the required fiscal adjustment to the collapse in oil revenues, the 2018 budget introduced substantial cuts to public spending. Some modest progress has been achieved on governance reforms with the dissolution of several utilities and their replacement with public companies and the endorsement by the government of a draft bill to improve the financial transparency of the national oil company, SNPC.
Fitch deems the implementation risks of a possible IMF programme to be high. PFM deficiencies and data gaps will impair the execution and monitoring of fiscal consolidation and reforms. Deep-rooted institutional shortcomings are underscored by Congo's ranking of 161 over 180 countries on Transparency International's corruption index and very weak governance indicators, which are the third lowest among Fitch-rated sovereigns.
If an agreement is reached, IMF support could catalyse additional official funding. However, debt restructuring will remain likely as we expect total financing under the programme to fall short of Congo's sizable needs over the coming years. The government has started negotiations with external creditors over a possible restructuring of loans owed to bilateral official creditors, mainly China, and oil traders. We expect these negotiations will likely result in a temporary suspension of debt service payments and possibly some maturity extensions rather than nominal haircuts.
We understand that the authorities aim to exclude their outstanding 2029 Eurobond and five-year local-currency bond from any debt restructuring operation. Bondholders are exposed to the risk of disruption of payments due to the structural weaknesses of PFM or from legal actions initiated against the sovereign by third parties. These risks are illustrated by two missed payments on Congo's Eurobond since June 2016 that led Fitch to downgrade the sovereign to 'RD' (Restricted Default) twice as bondholders received their payments only after the grace period elapsed.
General government (GG) debt was 119% of GDP at end-December 2017 according to official statistics, including the aforementioned arrears of 31% of GDP. Some uncertainty persists regarding the actual level of public debt resulting from incomplete data on arrears, past recourse to opaque financing schemes, including commodity-backed transactions, and weak transparency on the balance sheets of state-owned enterprises, including SNPC. Based on currently available data, we project GG debt to decline to 105% of GDP in 2019 and rise again in 2020. These projections do not take into account the impact of a possible loan restructuring on debt dynamics.
fedro10
è la somma che fa il totale...
captain sparrow
Forumer storico
primo prezzo dell'obbligazione 21 US458204AP96 a FRA 91/96Intelsat share ore 20:30 +27,21% ad aprile si comprava a 4 usd. Oggi oltre 20.