Fitch Revises Croatia's Outlook to Positive; Affirms at 'BB+'
06 JUL 2018 4:06 PM ET
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s):
Croatia - Rating Action Report
Fitch Ratings-London-06 July 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Croatia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB+' and revised the Outlook to Positive from Stable.
A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The revision of the Outlook on Croatia's 'BB+' Long-Term IDRs to Positive from Stable reflects the following key rating drivers and their relative weights:
High
Fitch forecasts Croatia to run a budget surplus of around 0.4% of GDP in 2018, following a surplus of 0.8% in 2017. This would be an outperformance of the government's own target of a deficit of 0.5% of GDP, owing to the favourable 2017 starting point, commitment to expenditure targets, falling interest costs and strong revenue growth. The European Commission (EC) forecasts a 2018 surplus of 0.7% of GDP. Croatia outperformed its 2017 budget target by 2.1% of GDP and its 2016 target by 1.5% of GDP.
For 2019, Fitch forecasts a balanced budget, compared with the government's target of a deficit of 0.4% of GDP in its Convergence Plan (CP), based on similar dynamics as in 2018. Statements by government ministers suggest likely cuts in VAT, personal income tax or social contributions in 2019. However, these are already included in the CP base line. The CP envisages a deficit of 0.4% in 2019, a balanced budget in 2020 and a surplus of 0.5% in 2021.
Fitch expects the combination of persistent primary budget surpluses (2.9% of GDP in 2018), low interest rates and healthy GDP growth to contribute to a continued marked reduction in gross general government debt. Public debt/GDP fell by 2.7pp to 77.5% at end-2017, from a peak of 84% at end-2014, and Fitch projects it to fall to around 71% by end-2019. Nevertheless, it remains well above the current 'BB' range median of 45% at end-2017.