Telecom operator Altice has not yet sailed into calm waters, with problems coming at it from all sides. As reported by AFP, a number of the group’s shareholders have announced that they plan to lodge a complaint in Paris against the group for having “provided false or misleading information”. Their lawyer, Maitre Frédérik-Karel Canoy, stated that about 50 shareholders will be involved in the legal proceedings. According to the shareholders, Altice "played down the level of debt during the period 2015-2017 and wrongly claimed to have the debt totally under control ". The lawyer is also seeking plaintiffs in Amsterdam, where the Altice head office is located. The Altice group has denounced this report on the basis that “it is a manipulation, a malicious reporting manoeuvre and an attempt by the media to destabilise the group’s business”. Yesterday, the Altice share price lost almost 9% (closing at €7.6) which means that market capitalisation has collapsed by 50% in the last month.
It appears increasingly likely that Altice will have to consider asset disposals in order to calm pressure on the equity markets and in the media. At this stage, the group is thinking about selling a portion of its mobile transmission towers in France, valued at a total of €4bn-€6bn This morning, the Financial Times reports that the Altice group is also seeking a buyer for its subsidiary in the Dominican Republic, which includes the ex-Orange Dominicana, the mobile operator acquired in 2013 for $1.4bn from Orange. Given all these problems, we maintain our negative opinion on this issuer and confirm our SELL recommendation.
Altice Financing 5.25% 2023: z + 405bp (to maturity) or z + 285bp (to next call on 15/02/2018).
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Up to EUR3bn from the sale of Rep Dom assets reported by Reuters. S&P’s rating outlook cut to Neg. No worries
According to Reuter, Altice Dominican Republic assets could be sold for up to EUR3bn. Price multiples are said to be at around 7-8x EBITDA. This very close to our expectations of EUR3.2bn.
We remind that the sale of Altice Domincan Republic assets could prompt deleveraging to 2.6x vs 3.6x at Altice International level. Based on a new targeted leverage ratio of 3.5x in our estimates, Atl Int could upstream EUR1.7bn of cash to Altice Lux. We see the post leverage ratio drop to 4.8x on a consolidated basis at Altice Lux level.
Meanwhile, S&P cut its outlook from St to Neg on Altice’s B+ debt, but lowered its corporate credit ratings. The rating agency stressed key credit factors such as accelerated FCF generation in 2018 following strong investments in France. It also affirmed its B+ credit rating at Altice US with a Neg outlook in order to reflect concerns at Altice Europe level. This was mainly due to France and its revised growth and EBITDA expectations for 2017.
S&P revised downwards its expectations for France in 2018 and noted overall debt concerns due to the collapse of the share price. As widely reported, SFR’s differentiation strategy on content and network have not yet proved its effectiveness. It is expecting now the EBITDA to reach -2.5% on average for 2016-2018 vs +3% before. In France, it foresees no rebound in EBITDA due to more aggressive competitors in broadband and costs associated to the ramp up of fiber offers.
As for us, S&P expects credit metrics to improve in 2018 amid operating stabilization in France, management reshuffling and asset sales. Its adjusted leverage ratio should reach 6.4x in FY17 vs 6x initially expected and should end up lower than 6x by year-end 2018. The rating affirmation also stems from Altice’s strong liquidity overall. At Altice lux level, S&P expects a FFO / debt ratio of 11% in 2019 vs 8-9% in 2016 and a gross leverage of 5.9x in 2018 vs 6.4x in 2017.
Altice Lux Consolidated Net debt vs credit ratios- EURm FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Net debt
19 509
17 214
28 468
29 189
30 261
29 949
Net debt / EBITDA
4.7
3.5
5.0
4.9
5.2
4.9
EBITDA / interest expense
7.2
9.5
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.7
FFO / net debt
17%
25%
13%
13%
12%
14%
Adjusted net debt / Adj EBITDA
4.9
3.7
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.2
Adj FFO / Adj net debt
16%
23%
12%
13%
11%
13%
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