captain sparrow
Forumer storico
urca, che giornatina oggi per le borse. mi sa che domani la mia wl piangerà
Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 2
- Creatore Discussione gionmorg
- Data di Inizio
Myskin
Forumer stoico
e da questo post si capisce quanto sei (anzi siamo) vecchi!
vero però se non fossimo vecchi non sapremmo scovare tali chicche, spero mariarosa prenda la cosa con ironia, mi sono permesso perchè a me sta simpatica
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Ma non vedo perchè
gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
Probabilmente ha anche qualche titolo azionario...
captain sparrow
Forumer storico
bella questa nuova versione del tuo mitico "perchè?"
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Moby SpA Downgraded To 'B' On Weak EBITDA Performance; Outlook Negative On Recurring Covenant Pressure
it lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Italian ferry operator Moby
SpA to 'B' from 'B+'. The outlook is negative.
We also lowered the issue rating on Moby's senior secured debt to 'B+' from
'BB-'. The recovery rating is unchanged at '2', indicating our expectation of
substantial recovery (70%-90%; rounded estimate: 85%), for the secured lenders
in the event of a payment default.
We removed the ratings from CreditWatch with negative implications where they
were placed on Dec. 20, 2017.
The downgrade reflects that on the back of a more competitive trading
environment than previously expected, Moby's reported EBITDA base has fallen
to close to €110 million (excluding the gain from asset disposals) in 2017 and
we do not think it will climb to our previously forecast levels of €130
million-€140 million in 2018-2019. This weakness has diminished the company's
financial flexibility to confront potential operational setbacks and
unexpected cash calls.
We expect Moby will continue to face intense competition, which combined with
potential regulatory fines from ongoing several legal proceedings, could
reduce its ability to improve credit metrics (which are currently weak for the
rating) and could lead to a liquidity shortfall depending on the severity of
fines. In the 12 months ending March 31, 2018, Moby's credit metrics weakened
further due to the fierce competition in its core and new routes, particularly
to the island of Sicily where the company competes with a well-established
player. As such, its adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt reached 10%
compared with about 15% in 2016. During this period, Moby communicated a €22
million loss from the new routes. While we expect a slight improvement in
2018, we believe increased fuel prices and the adverse change in the
competitive landscape will constrain the company's ability to reach break-even
levels on the new routes.
Furthermore, we believe that Moby is at risk of breaching the net leverage
covenant test in June 2019 when the level will step down to the original
threshold of maximum of 3.5x from the most recently relaxed maximum of 5.5x
(as agreed with the lender group) for the June 2018 and December 2018 tests.
The rating remains under pressure from the uncertainty regarding the European
Commission (EC) investigation, which could result in significant cash calls on
the company, and a potential Italian anti-trust regulatory fine of up to €29
million. The EC is investigating historical and existing subsidies from the
Italian state to Tirrenia-CIN and Toremar (Moby's wholly-owned subsidiary).
The investigation started in 2011, but the EC is yet to determine if such
subsidies constitute incompatible state aid and threatens to distort
competition. Until the commission concludes the investigation, the Italian
government is contracted to pay annual subsidies amounting to about €87
million for all of Tirrenia-CIN's and some of Toremar's loss-making routes, in
exchange for provision of services, especially in winter. The ongoing
investigation also encompasses other issues related to allegations that the
privatization of the Tirrenia-CIN business was conducted unfairly.
To provision for an adverse ruling, Moby agreed with Tirrenia-CIN at the time
of the acquisition in 2012 to defer €180 million of the acquisition price
(included in debt) and suspend the payment until the EC concludes the
investigation. We consider that the deferred payment provides a cushion for
Moby because it can be reduced or terminated if the company is subject to the
EC fine. It has also been negotiated to be paid in deferred installments (€55
million already due and suspended, €65 million due in April 2019, and €60
million in April 2021) if the EC doesn't overrule this payment agreement.
However, we acknowledge that the €180 million may not cover all the possible
outcomes and, depending on the EC ruling in terms of severity of fines and
payment schedule, Moby could face a liquidity shortfall, which would lead us
to lower the rating.
Our base case assumes:
definition of net debt leverage used for the purpose of leverage covenant
calculation. This is mainly due to our standard operating lease and surplus
cash adjustments to total adjusted debt.
As a ferry operator with a fleet of 47 passenger and cargo ferries and 17
tugboats, Moby predominantly serves routes between continental Italy and
Italian islands (as well as French island Corsica). Our business assessment
for Moby continues to reflect the company's exposure to the cyclical
transportation industry and its narrow business scope compared with other
global ship operators and transport service providers.
Furthermore, we consider that Moby participates in a competitive market where
strategic pricing to maintain market share will continue pressuring
profitability. As a seasonal business, Moby's revenues are highly concentrated
in Sardinian routes, some of which are not profitable outside the tourist
season, and we note that certain routes never turn a profit. While we assume
that Moby will continue receiving state grants in 2018 and 2019 (€86 million
per year), we view negatively the termination of such aid in 2020. However, we
assume that Moby could discontinue the services, sell vessels, charter them
out, or implement other efficiency measures to mitigate any potential changes
to the system of state grants. On top of its passenger ferry operations, Moby
generates about 30% of its total revenue from cargo transportation, which we
consider to have more stable volume patterns throughout the year.
Moby's leading position as a ferry operator in the niche Italian market
supports the rating, in our view. It has a well-recognized and long-standing
brand and has operated in the maritime industry since the 18th century. Moby's
relatively young and difficult-to-replicate fleet of vessels is also a
relative strength. We consider the fundamentals of the ferry industry to be
more favorable than traditional cyclical transportation because demand and
pricing is generally more stable and capital intensity is lower.
The negative outlook reflects our view that Moby's credit metrics could remain
below a level commensurate with the 'B' rating in 2018 to an extent that we
see an elevated risk of covenant breach in 2019. The outlook also takes into
account that the cash fines imposed by the EC may exceed our base-case
expectations.
We would lower the rating in the next 12 months if EBITDA generation
deteriorated, such that adjusted FFO to debt appeared to remain below 12% in
2018. This could occur, for example, if the cost of fuel were 10% higher than
expected, hitting profitability, or if new routes generated similar losses to
those in 2017 (€22 million) amid competitive pricing pressure.
We would also lower the rating by one or more notches if the EC's ruling
resulted in Moby having to pay a fine significantly higher than the deferred
payment amount of €180 million and within a short period of time, which would
likely lead to a liquidity shortfall.
We would revise the outlook to stable if the company performs better than
expected and restores adequate headroom under the leverage covenant for tests
in 2019. This could occur, all other things being equal, if Moby recovers from
the operating losses in the new routes reaching break-even levels.
- 25-Jun-2018 11:53 EDT
- Moby SpA's reported EBITDA base dropped in 2017 and we do not think it
will climb to levels we have previously expected in the foreseeable
future. This weakness has diminished the company's financial flexibility
to confront operational setbacks and unexpected cash calls. - We expect Moby will continue to face intense competition in core and new
routes, which combined with potential regulatory fines, could reduce its
ability to improve credit metrics, which are currently weak for the
rating, and lead to a liquidity shortfall depending on the severity of
fines. - Additionally, Moby will be at risk of breaching the net leverage covenant
test in June 2019 when the level will step down to a maximum of 3.5x from
5.5x for the June 2018 and December 2018 tests. - We are therefore lowering our issuer credit rating on Moby to 'B' from
'B+' and the issue rating on its senior secured debt to 'B+' from 'BB-',
and removing the ratings from CreditWatch negative where we placed them
on Dec. 20, 2017. - The negative outlook reflects that we could downgrade Moby if the
company's credit metrics appeared to remain below the level commensurate
with the 'B' rating in 2018 to an extent that we see an elevated risk of
covenant breach in 2019 or if the potential cash fines imposed by the
European Commission were to exceed our base-case expectations.
it lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Italian ferry operator Moby
SpA to 'B' from 'B+'. The outlook is negative.
We also lowered the issue rating on Moby's senior secured debt to 'B+' from
'BB-'. The recovery rating is unchanged at '2', indicating our expectation of
substantial recovery (70%-90%; rounded estimate: 85%), for the secured lenders
in the event of a payment default.
We removed the ratings from CreditWatch with negative implications where they
were placed on Dec. 20, 2017.
The downgrade reflects that on the back of a more competitive trading
environment than previously expected, Moby's reported EBITDA base has fallen
to close to €110 million (excluding the gain from asset disposals) in 2017 and
we do not think it will climb to our previously forecast levels of €130
million-€140 million in 2018-2019. This weakness has diminished the company's
financial flexibility to confront potential operational setbacks and
unexpected cash calls.
We expect Moby will continue to face intense competition, which combined with
potential regulatory fines from ongoing several legal proceedings, could
reduce its ability to improve credit metrics (which are currently weak for the
rating) and could lead to a liquidity shortfall depending on the severity of
fines. In the 12 months ending March 31, 2018, Moby's credit metrics weakened
further due to the fierce competition in its core and new routes, particularly
to the island of Sicily where the company competes with a well-established
player. As such, its adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt reached 10%
compared with about 15% in 2016. During this period, Moby communicated a €22
million loss from the new routes. While we expect a slight improvement in
2018, we believe increased fuel prices and the adverse change in the
competitive landscape will constrain the company's ability to reach break-even
levels on the new routes.
Furthermore, we believe that Moby is at risk of breaching the net leverage
covenant test in June 2019 when the level will step down to the original
threshold of maximum of 3.5x from the most recently relaxed maximum of 5.5x
(as agreed with the lender group) for the June 2018 and December 2018 tests.
The rating remains under pressure from the uncertainty regarding the European
Commission (EC) investigation, which could result in significant cash calls on
the company, and a potential Italian anti-trust regulatory fine of up to €29
million. The EC is investigating historical and existing subsidies from the
Italian state to Tirrenia-CIN and Toremar (Moby's wholly-owned subsidiary).
The investigation started in 2011, but the EC is yet to determine if such
subsidies constitute incompatible state aid and threatens to distort
competition. Until the commission concludes the investigation, the Italian
government is contracted to pay annual subsidies amounting to about €87
million for all of Tirrenia-CIN's and some of Toremar's loss-making routes, in
exchange for provision of services, especially in winter. The ongoing
investigation also encompasses other issues related to allegations that the
privatization of the Tirrenia-CIN business was conducted unfairly.
To provision for an adverse ruling, Moby agreed with Tirrenia-CIN at the time
of the acquisition in 2012 to defer €180 million of the acquisition price
(included in debt) and suspend the payment until the EC concludes the
investigation. We consider that the deferred payment provides a cushion for
Moby because it can be reduced or terminated if the company is subject to the
EC fine. It has also been negotiated to be paid in deferred installments (€55
million already due and suspended, €65 million due in April 2019, and €60
million in April 2021) if the EC doesn't overrule this payment agreement.
However, we acknowledge that the €180 million may not cover all the possible
outcomes and, depending on the EC ruling in terms of severity of fines and
payment schedule, Moby could face a liquidity shortfall, which would lead us
to lower the rating.
Our base case assumes:
- Sales growth of about 2.0%-2.5% in 2018 and 2019, linked to our estimates
of annual GDP and inflation growth rates for Italy and the eurozone (down
from 9% in 2017 supported by new routes). - Low cost-base inflation given that Moby has hedges on the vast majority
of its bunker fuel volumes in 2018, although we note there are no hedges
in 2019. We believe that the company will continue updating its hedging
program. However, we acknowledge that an increase in fuel prices will
make hedging more expensive. - Annual capital expenditure (capex) of around €35 million for the next two
years to cover investments in fleet refitting and dry-docking. - State grants continuing in 2018 and 2019. We assume that Moby could
terminate the services or implement other efficiency measures to mitigate
any potential changes to the system of state grants. - No dividend distribution.
- About €105 million of the company's cash to be immediately accessible to
repay debt in 2018 and 2019. This amount corresponds to the first
installment of €55 million for the deferred payment to the Tirrenia group
(due in April 2016 but suspended), and €50 million for the amortization
of the secured term loan in February 2019.
- S&P Global Ratings-adjusted FFO to debt of about 14%-15% in 2018 and 17%
in 2019 (from 10% in 2017). - Adjusted debt to EBITDA of about 5.0x-4.5x in 2018 and improving to about
4.2x in 2019, compared with 5.9x in 2017.*
definition of net debt leverage used for the purpose of leverage covenant
calculation. This is mainly due to our standard operating lease and surplus
cash adjustments to total adjusted debt.
As a ferry operator with a fleet of 47 passenger and cargo ferries and 17
tugboats, Moby predominantly serves routes between continental Italy and
Italian islands (as well as French island Corsica). Our business assessment
for Moby continues to reflect the company's exposure to the cyclical
transportation industry and its narrow business scope compared with other
global ship operators and transport service providers.
Furthermore, we consider that Moby participates in a competitive market where
strategic pricing to maintain market share will continue pressuring
profitability. As a seasonal business, Moby's revenues are highly concentrated
in Sardinian routes, some of which are not profitable outside the tourist
season, and we note that certain routes never turn a profit. While we assume
that Moby will continue receiving state grants in 2018 and 2019 (€86 million
per year), we view negatively the termination of such aid in 2020. However, we
assume that Moby could discontinue the services, sell vessels, charter them
out, or implement other efficiency measures to mitigate any potential changes
to the system of state grants. On top of its passenger ferry operations, Moby
generates about 30% of its total revenue from cargo transportation, which we
consider to have more stable volume patterns throughout the year.
Moby's leading position as a ferry operator in the niche Italian market
supports the rating, in our view. It has a well-recognized and long-standing
brand and has operated in the maritime industry since the 18th century. Moby's
relatively young and difficult-to-replicate fleet of vessels is also a
relative strength. We consider the fundamentals of the ferry industry to be
more favorable than traditional cyclical transportation because demand and
pricing is generally more stable and capital intensity is lower.
The negative outlook reflects our view that Moby's credit metrics could remain
below a level commensurate with the 'B' rating in 2018 to an extent that we
see an elevated risk of covenant breach in 2019. The outlook also takes into
account that the cash fines imposed by the EC may exceed our base-case
expectations.
We would lower the rating in the next 12 months if EBITDA generation
deteriorated, such that adjusted FFO to debt appeared to remain below 12% in
2018. This could occur, for example, if the cost of fuel were 10% higher than
expected, hitting profitability, or if new routes generated similar losses to
those in 2017 (€22 million) amid competitive pricing pressure.
We would also lower the rating by one or more notches if the EC's ruling
resulted in Moby having to pay a fine significantly higher than the deferred
payment amount of €180 million and within a short period of time, which would
likely lead to a liquidity shortfall.
We would revise the outlook to stable if the company performs better than
expected and restores adequate headroom under the leverage covenant for tests
in 2019. This could occur, all other things being equal, if Moby recovers from
the operating losses in the new routes reaching break-even levels.
captain sparrow
Forumer storico
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Paraguay 'BB/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Stable
RATINGS
Foreign Currency: BB/Stable/B
Local Currency: BB/Stable/B
For further details see Ratings List.
OVERVIEW
On June 25, 2018, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB/B' long- and short-term
sovereign credit ratings on Paraguay. The outlook remains stable. At the same
time, we affirmed our 'BB+' transfer and convertibility assessment on
Paraguay.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects our expectations that Paraguay's weak institutions
of governance and evolving political system will continue to limit the
effectiveness of policymaking. We expect these factors to be balanced by
favorable economic growth, which is likely to remain buoyant over the next
three years, and by Paraguay's strong external position, sustained by small
current account deficits. We expect continuity in key economic policies
following the transition in mid-August from President Horacio Cartes to
President-elect Mario Abdo Benitez. We expect Paraguay to run moderate general
government deficits in the next three years, contributing to a low debt
burden.
We could raise our ratings over the next couple of years if we see more
effective policymaking and strengthening of public institutions of governance,
thereby reducing the risk of instability or unexpected changes in economic
policy that undermine confidence. Stronger checks and balances between public
institutions and greater predictability and transparency of policy decisions
could improve our institutional assessment of Paraguay. We could also raise
our ratings if continued diversification of the economy reduces its
vulnerability to low commodity prices and adverse weather conditions.
Additionally, we could raise our ratings if monetary policy credibility
strengthens, contributing to a sustained decline in dollarization in the
economy, strengthening the central bank's ability to conduct policy.
On the other hand, poor economic management or unexpected external shocks
could undermine GDP growth and reverse the recent strengthening of Paraguay's
financial profile. Higher-than-expected fiscal deficits or unexpected currency
weakness could lead to larger-than-expected increases in net general
government debt over the next couple of years. Similarly, an unexpected
deterioration in the current account could weaken the country's currently
strong external liquidity position. The combination of weaker public finances
and external liquidity, along with potentially growing contingent
liabilities--from the financial sector or public-private projects (PPP)--could
result in a downgra
- 25-Jun-2018 16:40 EDT
RATINGS
Foreign Currency: BB/Stable/B
Local Currency: BB/Stable/B
For further details see Ratings List.
OVERVIEW
- We expect continuity in key economic policies following the transition
from President Horacio Cartes to President-elect Mario Abdo Benitez. - Paraguay's resilient GDP growth and favorable external position are
balanced by institutional bottlenecks and continued economic reliance on
commodities. - We are affirming our 'BB/B' long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings
on Paraguay. - The stable outlook reflects our expectation of continued good GDP growth,
moderate public debt levels, and small current account deficits in the
coming three years, balanced by weak public institutions and structural
challenges that continue to hamper the effectiveness of policymaking.
On June 25, 2018, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB/B' long- and short-term
sovereign credit ratings on Paraguay. The outlook remains stable. At the same
time, we affirmed our 'BB+' transfer and convertibility assessment on
Paraguay.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects our expectations that Paraguay's weak institutions
of governance and evolving political system will continue to limit the
effectiveness of policymaking. We expect these factors to be balanced by
favorable economic growth, which is likely to remain buoyant over the next
three years, and by Paraguay's strong external position, sustained by small
current account deficits. We expect continuity in key economic policies
following the transition in mid-August from President Horacio Cartes to
President-elect Mario Abdo Benitez. We expect Paraguay to run moderate general
government deficits in the next three years, contributing to a low debt
burden.
We could raise our ratings over the next couple of years if we see more
effective policymaking and strengthening of public institutions of governance,
thereby reducing the risk of instability or unexpected changes in economic
policy that undermine confidence. Stronger checks and balances between public
institutions and greater predictability and transparency of policy decisions
could improve our institutional assessment of Paraguay. We could also raise
our ratings if continued diversification of the economy reduces its
vulnerability to low commodity prices and adverse weather conditions.
Additionally, we could raise our ratings if monetary policy credibility
strengthens, contributing to a sustained decline in dollarization in the
economy, strengthening the central bank's ability to conduct policy.
On the other hand, poor economic management or unexpected external shocks
could undermine GDP growth and reverse the recent strengthening of Paraguay's
financial profile. Higher-than-expected fiscal deficits or unexpected currency
weakness could lead to larger-than-expected increases in net general
government debt over the next couple of years. Similarly, an unexpected
deterioration in the current account could weaken the country's currently
strong external liquidity position. The combination of weaker public finances
and external liquidity, along with potentially growing contingent
liabilities--from the financial sector or public-private projects (PPP)--could
result in a downgra
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Volevo rassicurarti dall'alto della mia esperienzabella questa nuova versione del tuo mitico "perchè?"
,invitandoti a non seguire troppo emotivamente i mercati azionari
