Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 2

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California resources

The risk for bondholders is whether CRC can continue to grow production and revenues after a period of limited capital investment, as well as improve its balance sheet enough to position itself for debt refinancing opportunities within the next few years. The company has proven to be very nimble in its response to oil’s ups and downs. The key to success will be in its ability to derive more production from its current asset base. In regards to debt reduction, the most recent Lost Hills sale provided much needed cash to pay down the company’s current revolver and may have influenced the banking group’s most recent reaffirmation of CRC’s borrowing base. In any case, the outstanding yield-to-maturity of nearly 17.5% on CRC’s 2021 notes does appear to outweigh the risks identified.

Recently, there has been a bill proposed in the California legislature that would essentially shut down all of California’s in-state oil production. Assembly Bill AB-345 would require, beginning in 2020, that all new oil and gas development that is not on federal land, to be located at least 2,500 feet from a residence, school, childcare facility, playground, hospital, or health clinic. For these purposes, the bill would define re-drilling of a previously plugged and abandoned oil or gas well or other rework operations, to be considered new oil and gas development.

The effect of this 2,500 feet of clear space around production wells would virtually destroy California’s in-state oil production. If passed, this bill would likely put CRC out of business as the vast majority of its revenues come from its production and sale of oil. However, opponents of this bill argue that shutting down in-state production would further threaten California’s economy by increasing its dependence on foreign oil and eliminating 368,000 high-paying blue collar jobs. Legislation like this has been proposed in the past, each time falling short of becoming law.


CRC’s revenues are derived from the sale of oil and, to a lesser extent, natural gas, so price fluctuations of these commodities is also a risk. Oil prices, which react to both market forces as well as national and international politics, have been recovering since the unexpected decline in late 2018. However, predicting the movement of commodity prices is difficult at best. A drop in prices could affect CRC’s ability to increase its production through increased capital spending.

In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect tends to be more pronounced for lower couponed, longer-term debt instruments. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a gain or loss. Higher yielding bonds typically have lower credit ratings, if any, and therefore involve higher degrees of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
 

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