il BUND: la sfida alle leggi della fisica... (2 lettori)

[Fleursdumal]

non riesco a trovar niente , però godo a vedere come stanno buttando giù il T-Bond mentre comprano a manetta 5y e 10y t-note , una bella aggiustina alla curva ci voleva :smile:

 

[gastronomo]

Quindi si può pensare che si stanno chiudendo la posizione - certo che 'ste dichiarazioni alla seconda di refunding ...

 

[tzr]

liberate gli orsi

Appena sentito sulla CNBC:
Gli Us bonds sono "cheap" rispetto al resto del mondo
Usa 4%
Europa 3,45%
Japan 1 e un etto di salame

Quindi (con lo spirito contrarian) vogliono sbolognare i bond lunghi ai buoi?

 

[gastronomo]

Fed's Guynn in WSJ says language change may be soon
Wed Feb 9, 2005 09:03 AM ET
NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn said the central bank still has "got a ways to go" on raising interest rates, according to quotes in The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday but may need to change some of the language in its policy statement.
Guynn also is quoted as saying the Fed may have to change the language of its policy statement "not too far down the road," and says the language change could include dropping the words "measured" and "accommodative."

The language change may come sooner or later, "and maybe sooner," Guynn is quoted as saying.

 

[Fleursdumal]

liberate gli orsi

Appena sentito sulla CNBC:
Gli Us bonds sono "cheap" rispetto al resto del mondo
Usa 4%
Europa 3,45%
Japan 1 e un etto di salame

Quindi (con lo spirito contrarian) vogliono sbolognare i bond lunghi ai buoi?

se non riescono a mollarli agli asiatici possono dichiarare bancarotta e chiudere i giochi , e son pure abili a venderli dando interessi ridicoli per il rischio

 

[Fleursdumal]

Fed's Guynn in WSJ says language change may be soon
Wed Feb 9, 2005 09:03 AM ET
NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn said the central bank still has "got a ways to go" on raising interest rates, according to quotes in The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday but may need to change some of the language in its policy statement.
Guynn also is quoted as saying the Fed may have to change the language of its policy statement "not too far down the road," and says the language change could include dropping the words "measured" and "accommodative."

The language change may come sooner or later, "and maybe sooner," Guynn is quoted as saying.

ok sarà per la prossima riunione della fed a sto punto , ma a leggere le dichiarazioni di tutti uno poi non ci capisce più una mazza e allora meglio prenderle col beneficio del dubbio che poi arrivano dei payrolls disastrosi a marzo e cambia tutto il quadro

 

[gastronomo]

ok sarà per la prossima riunione della fed a sto punto , ma a leggere le dichiarazioni di tutti uno poi non ci capisce più una mazza e allora meglio prenderle col beneficio del dubbio che poi arrivano dei payrolls disastrosi a marzo e cambia tutto il quadro[/quote]

Concordo; giocano al poliziotto buono e poliziotto cattivo, come Sulle strade di San Francisco - aggiustano gradualmente le aspettative, giocano col bicchiere mezzo pieno e mezzo vuoto, e tutta 'sta danza per cercare di vendere la carta coi tassi che devono salire e che hanno portato ad una bolla su tutti gli asset ...

 

[gastronomo]

...non capisco

US Treasuries mixed, put dovish spin on Guynn talk
Wed Feb 9, 2005 09:41 AM ET
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Short-dated U.S. Treasury debt bounced on Wednesday as some investors interpreted comments from a top Federal Reserve official to mean the central bank may pause in raising rates in the not too distant future.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Fed Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn said the Fed still had some way to go in raising rates. However, he added that at some point, and perhaps soon, the Fed might need to change the language in its policy statement, maybe dropping references to "measured" and "accommodative".

The market latched onto the last point, since traders reasoned that if policy was no longer "accommodative" the Fed might not have to tighten any further.

"This is a dovish comment for Guynn," said James Glassman, senior economist at JPMorgan, noting Guynn had a reputation as an inflation hawk.

"Now, Guynn does not speak for the whole Fed, but if the most hawkish members of the committee are talking like this then the center of gravity at the Fed may be shifting," said Glassman.

Many in the bond market took the comments to mean the Fed may hike rates at the next one or two meetings -- which is already fully priced into futures -- and then pause. As a result, Eurodollar futures (0#ED:: Quote, Profile, Research) trimmed expectations for how high rates may rise later in the year.

Short-term Treasuries also firmed, though gains were limited given investors still expected a couple more Fed hikes. Yields on two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dipped to 3.28 percent from 3.32 percent late Tuesday.

Longer-dated debt, however, ran into profit-taking as yields have fallen sharply recently as investors bet the Fed's tightening would curtail future inflation. These curve flattening trades involve selling short-term debt and buying the long-end, but with shorter-dated debt rallying some investors had decided to unwind their positions.

The resulting shift saw the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) slip 25/32 in price, lifting yields to 4.42 percent. On Tuesday yields had delved as deep as 4.35 percent, the lowest reading since mid-2003 and a drop of almost 60 basis points since Christmas.

The benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 7/32 in price, taking its yield to 4.05 percent from a three-month trough of 4.02 percent.

Five-year yields (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) eased only fractionally, to 3.65 percent from 3.66 percent, as the market still has to digest a $15 billion sale of new paper later in the session.

Traders remain anxious the auction will fail to attract foreign demand, even though indirect bidding at Tuesday's three-year auction came in above average. Pessimists noted a sale of Japanese government five-year paper overnight had led to a steep sell-off in JGB's.

"The strong bid in yesterday's three-year note auction has set a positive tone for this week's remaining operations," said William Prophet, interest rate strategist at UBS.

But he warned that demand in Treasury auctions often fluctuated sharply from issue to issue and a good performance at one was not a guarantee for others.

Prophet added that a high indirect bid did not necessarily mean that foreign accounts were unusually active. Primary dealers are direct bidders while indirect bidders cover almost everyone else, including foreign central banks.

The indirect bid for the five-year had been volatile recently, dropping to 32 percent in September, bouncing to 66 percent in December, then falling to 40 percent in January.

"Over the past year, this volatility has normally come at the hands of domestic investment funds, not foreign accounts," said Prophet. Indeed, foreign purchases of Treasuries were remarkably stable during the first three quarters of 2004, at between 25 percent and 35 percent of every auction.

 

[Fleursdumal]

forza spaventosa e si fa realistica l'ipotesi fatta prima della figura a W, da una parte je possino dall'altra quasi quasi li ringrazi perchè ti possono far fare un altro giro sulla giostra
tra l'altro adesso comprano a lungo e stanno mantenendo inchiodati i 10y e i 5y, dei maestri

ric come diceva una vecchia canzone di degragori : non c'è niente da capire

 

[gastronomo]

forza spaventosa e si fa realistica l'ipotesi fatta prima della figura a W, da una parte je possino dall'altra quasi quasi li ringrazi perchè ti possono far fare un altro giro sulla giostra

ric come diceva una vecchia canzone di degragori : non c'è niente da capire

più che un giro di giostra, mi sembra il calci.nculo