iguanito
Forumer storico
C'è il rischio cambio abbastanza forte però. se torna a 1,24 son c.....i
Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Investment Grade, entro le frontiere conosciute. (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione canchye
- Data di Inizio
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Si lo so’ io ragiono con il cambio neutro.
Da gennaio 2019 sarò residente in Repubblica Dominicana
iguanito
Forumer storico
Anche tu cedi al fascino caraibico. Sto vedendo un programma su una tv di cui ora non ricordo il nome (fa parte del pacchetto sky) che racconta le vicende di molti italiani che si sono trasferiti in passato a santo domingo.
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Si ho una casa a Punta Cana. pensa che quelli che vedi in trasmissione li conosco personalmente quasi tutti( quei due friulani che stanno a Sosua e L'ultima puntata con GUIDO che sta a Las Terrenas).
Ho avuto la fortuna di diventare amico anche del mitico BRIZIONE(stiamo a 50 metri distanti di casa).
Grande Brizio un saluto !!
iguanito
Forumer storico
ma alla lunga non pensate di annoiarvi? E' sempre un'isola, peraltro oggi con un alto tasso di criminalità fuori da certe zone (a quel che dicono).Si ho una casa a Punta Cana. pensa che quelli che vedi in trasmissione li conosco personalmente quasi tutti( quei due friulani che stanno a Sosua e L'ultima puntata con GUIDO che sta a Las Terrenas).
Ho avuto la fortuna di diventare amico anche del mitico BRIZIONE(stiamo a 50 metri distanti di casa).
Grande Brizio un saluto !!
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
no non cedo di annoiarmi. Puoi fare tantissime cose con una qualita' della vita nettamente superiore, dedicarti a tua figlia , agli hobby e non far suonare la sveglia.
La zona di Punta cana è una delle piu' sicure del CARIBE
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Fitch Affirms The Kraft Heinz Company's IDR at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
30 MAY 2018 12:20 PM ET
Fitch Ratings-New York-30 May 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed The Kraft Heinz Company's (Kraft Heinz) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' and Short-Term IDR at 'F3'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. A full list of rating actions follows at the end of this release.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Mature Markets Limit Organic Business Growth: Kraft Heinz generated $26 billion annual revenue in 2017. Its portfolio includes eight $1 billion-plus brands and many other large and well-known household brands. Kraft Heinz is heavily exposed to the mature North American market, which makes up about 80% of sales and EBITDA. In addition, another 9% of its revenue comes from EMEA. Kraft Heinz's organic sales were down 1.5% in the first quarter of 2018, after declining 1% in 2017. Fitch expects full-year 2018 top-line growth to be flattish. Beyond 2018, Fitch forecasts that the overall organic growth rate to be modestly positive, assuming the North American and European businesses stabilize.
Organic growth trends remain challenging for large packaged foods companies across most developed economies, due to brand maturity and changing consumer preferences. In addition, the lack of pricing power reflects continued consolidation and shifts in distribution channels towards discounters, including hard-discount grocers. Kraft Heinz competes with both large national and international food and beverage companies and numerous local and regional companies. It competes with both branded products and private brands on the basis of product quality, innovation, consumer preference relevancy, brand recognition and the effectiveness of its marketing programs, distribution, shelf space, merchandising support, and price.
Significant Margin Improvement Achieved: The ratings incorporate significant qualitative benefits from the company's 51% owners, 3G Capital (3G; 23.9% ownership) and Berkshire Hathaway (Berkshire; 26.7%), who were previous owners of H.J. Heinz Company (Heinz). 3G has substantially increased operating profitability and delevered acquired firms, including Heinz and Restaurant Brands International, Inc. (formerly Burger King). For example, 3G and Berkshire acquired Heinz in June 2013 and improved the company's leverage (total debt to EBITDA) to 6.2x in 2014 from 8.9x in 2013. The improvement was driven by a 35% EBITDA increase due to lower overhead and manufacturing costs and more than $1 billion in debt repayment.
At the end of 2017, Kraft Heinz had achieved $1.7 billion in net savings since the merger closed in July 2015, stronger than the expected $1.5 billion, and completed approximately 70% of footprint right-sizing. However, gross margin improvement in 2017 has been muted by increasing input prices. In addition, the company is making large investments in go-to-market capabilities, Big Bet launches, increased media dollars and customer services.
As a result of gross margin compression, investments in the business and weakness in top line in the first half 2018, Fitch expects EBITDA to decline to around $7.7 billion in 2018 versus almost $8 billion in 2017. EBITDA is expected to grow in the low single digit range thereafter to $8 billion by 2020, assuming modest top line growth and stable margins.
Progress Towards Deleveraging: The company has made strong progress to date and has realized integration savings through fixed-cost and overhead reduction, rationalizing the manufacturing footprint, and realizing procurement savings from increased scale.
Kraft Heinz's leverage declined to 4.1x in 2017 from 5x in 2015 (on pro forma combined 2015 EBITDA of $6.7 billion), due to the combination of realizing a substantial portion of the targeted annual synergies and $1.6 billion of debt paydown. Kraft also made a $1.5 billion cash contribution to its pension and postretirement benefit plans in 2017. Fitch expects leverage to remain flattish at around 4x going forward barring significant debt paydown.
FCF (after dividends) is expected to be around $1 billion annually, driven by lower capex and restructuring charges and assuming neutral working capital swings. Using projected FCF towards debt paydown could result in leverage trending towards the mid-3x by 2020.
Elevated M&A Event Risk: It has been three years since the Kraft / Heinz merger closed in July 2015. The combined company has been able to drive leverage down from a pro forma level of 5x in 2015 to 4.1x in 2017. In February 2017, Kraft Heinz approached Unilever NV (A+/Stable) with an acquisition proposal for a purchase price of $143 billion. The acquisition would have increased Kraft Heinz's leverage; Unilever declined the proposal. This Unilever overture affirmed Kraft Heinz's interest in seeking greater scale, geographic expansion and cost-cutting opportunities that could offset the challenging organic top-line growth environment, but would have delayed Kraft Heinz's deleveraging timeframe.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
Kraft Heinz' 'BBB-' rating reflects the company's large scale with $26 billion in annual sales, industry-leading EBITDA margins in the high 20's versus its peer average in the 20% range, as well as elevated leverage after the Kraft/Heinz merger in 2015. Fitch expects EBITDA to decline to $7.7 billion in 2018 from $7.9 billion in 2017 and grow in the low single digit range thereafter assuming modest top line growth and stable margins. Leverage is expected to be in the 4x times barring substantial debt paydown. Using projected FCF after dividends of $1 billion annually towards debt paydown could result in leverage trending towards the mid-3x by 2020.
Mondelez International, Inc. (BBB/Stable) also benefits from global scale with brands that hold #1 and #2 market shares in their respective categories. At $26 billion, Kraft's revenue is similar to Mondelez but EBITDA is higher by a factor of 1.5x. Mondelez differentiates itself from competitors by its primary focus on snacks and beverages, as well as a high exposure to international markets at about 75% of revenues. Mondelez's leverage is expected to be in the low-to-mid 3x.
Kellogg's (BBB/Stable) ratings reflect Fitch's expectations that organic volume will remain modestly negative over the medium term given the Kellogg portfolio's exposure to mature developed markets that account for 85% of total sales and a nascent natural/organic offering. This is balanced by the company's well-known brands, increasing shift away cereal into snacking, improved EBITDA margins and leverage around the mid-3x. General Mills' (BBB/Stable) performance has been similar to Kellogg, given significant exposure to categories such as cereal, which is facing meaningful decline in demand. General Mills' leverage is currently at 2.8x but is expected to increase to 4.2x post its acquisition of Blue Buffalo and trend toward mid-3x over the next two to three years. Kraft's scale in terms of revenue is almost 1.5x as large as General Mills and 2x Kellogg's, while EBITDA is 2x higher than General Mills and 3x larger than Kellogg.
30 MAY 2018 12:20 PM ET
Fitch Ratings-New York-30 May 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed The Kraft Heinz Company's (Kraft Heinz) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' and Short-Term IDR at 'F3'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. A full list of rating actions follows at the end of this release.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Mature Markets Limit Organic Business Growth: Kraft Heinz generated $26 billion annual revenue in 2017. Its portfolio includes eight $1 billion-plus brands and many other large and well-known household brands. Kraft Heinz is heavily exposed to the mature North American market, which makes up about 80% of sales and EBITDA. In addition, another 9% of its revenue comes from EMEA. Kraft Heinz's organic sales were down 1.5% in the first quarter of 2018, after declining 1% in 2017. Fitch expects full-year 2018 top-line growth to be flattish. Beyond 2018, Fitch forecasts that the overall organic growth rate to be modestly positive, assuming the North American and European businesses stabilize.
Organic growth trends remain challenging for large packaged foods companies across most developed economies, due to brand maturity and changing consumer preferences. In addition, the lack of pricing power reflects continued consolidation and shifts in distribution channels towards discounters, including hard-discount grocers. Kraft Heinz competes with both large national and international food and beverage companies and numerous local and regional companies. It competes with both branded products and private brands on the basis of product quality, innovation, consumer preference relevancy, brand recognition and the effectiveness of its marketing programs, distribution, shelf space, merchandising support, and price.
Significant Margin Improvement Achieved: The ratings incorporate significant qualitative benefits from the company's 51% owners, 3G Capital (3G; 23.9% ownership) and Berkshire Hathaway (Berkshire; 26.7%), who were previous owners of H.J. Heinz Company (Heinz). 3G has substantially increased operating profitability and delevered acquired firms, including Heinz and Restaurant Brands International, Inc. (formerly Burger King). For example, 3G and Berkshire acquired Heinz in June 2013 and improved the company's leverage (total debt to EBITDA) to 6.2x in 2014 from 8.9x in 2013. The improvement was driven by a 35% EBITDA increase due to lower overhead and manufacturing costs and more than $1 billion in debt repayment.
At the end of 2017, Kraft Heinz had achieved $1.7 billion in net savings since the merger closed in July 2015, stronger than the expected $1.5 billion, and completed approximately 70% of footprint right-sizing. However, gross margin improvement in 2017 has been muted by increasing input prices. In addition, the company is making large investments in go-to-market capabilities, Big Bet launches, increased media dollars and customer services.
As a result of gross margin compression, investments in the business and weakness in top line in the first half 2018, Fitch expects EBITDA to decline to around $7.7 billion in 2018 versus almost $8 billion in 2017. EBITDA is expected to grow in the low single digit range thereafter to $8 billion by 2020, assuming modest top line growth and stable margins.
Progress Towards Deleveraging: The company has made strong progress to date and has realized integration savings through fixed-cost and overhead reduction, rationalizing the manufacturing footprint, and realizing procurement savings from increased scale.
Kraft Heinz's leverage declined to 4.1x in 2017 from 5x in 2015 (on pro forma combined 2015 EBITDA of $6.7 billion), due to the combination of realizing a substantial portion of the targeted annual synergies and $1.6 billion of debt paydown. Kraft also made a $1.5 billion cash contribution to its pension and postretirement benefit plans in 2017. Fitch expects leverage to remain flattish at around 4x going forward barring significant debt paydown.
FCF (after dividends) is expected to be around $1 billion annually, driven by lower capex and restructuring charges and assuming neutral working capital swings. Using projected FCF towards debt paydown could result in leverage trending towards the mid-3x by 2020.
Elevated M&A Event Risk: It has been three years since the Kraft / Heinz merger closed in July 2015. The combined company has been able to drive leverage down from a pro forma level of 5x in 2015 to 4.1x in 2017. In February 2017, Kraft Heinz approached Unilever NV (A+/Stable) with an acquisition proposal for a purchase price of $143 billion. The acquisition would have increased Kraft Heinz's leverage; Unilever declined the proposal. This Unilever overture affirmed Kraft Heinz's interest in seeking greater scale, geographic expansion and cost-cutting opportunities that could offset the challenging organic top-line growth environment, but would have delayed Kraft Heinz's deleveraging timeframe.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
Kraft Heinz' 'BBB-' rating reflects the company's large scale with $26 billion in annual sales, industry-leading EBITDA margins in the high 20's versus its peer average in the 20% range, as well as elevated leverage after the Kraft/Heinz merger in 2015. Fitch expects EBITDA to decline to $7.7 billion in 2018 from $7.9 billion in 2017 and grow in the low single digit range thereafter assuming modest top line growth and stable margins. Leverage is expected to be in the 4x times barring substantial debt paydown. Using projected FCF after dividends of $1 billion annually towards debt paydown could result in leverage trending towards the mid-3x by 2020.
Mondelez International, Inc. (BBB/Stable) also benefits from global scale with brands that hold #1 and #2 market shares in their respective categories. At $26 billion, Kraft's revenue is similar to Mondelez but EBITDA is higher by a factor of 1.5x. Mondelez differentiates itself from competitors by its primary focus on snacks and beverages, as well as a high exposure to international markets at about 75% of revenues. Mondelez's leverage is expected to be in the low-to-mid 3x.
Kellogg's (BBB/Stable) ratings reflect Fitch's expectations that organic volume will remain modestly negative over the medium term given the Kellogg portfolio's exposure to mature developed markets that account for 85% of total sales and a nascent natural/organic offering. This is balanced by the company's well-known brands, increasing shift away cereal into snacking, improved EBITDA margins and leverage around the mid-3x. General Mills' (BBB/Stable) performance has been similar to Kellogg, given significant exposure to categories such as cereal, which is facing meaningful decline in demand. General Mills' leverage is currently at 2.8x but is expected to increase to 4.2x post its acquisition of Blue Buffalo and trend toward mid-3x over the next two to three years. Kraft's scale in terms of revenue is almost 1.5x as large as General Mills and 2x Kellogg's, while EBITDA is 2x higher than General Mills and 3x larger than Kellogg.
Prova a camminare in zona stazione centrale a Milano verso le 6 del pomeriggio e poi mi racconti
Ps Walter
Abitiamo a bavaro e non a punta cana
Sono due cose completamente differenti
iguanito
Forumer storico
Può essere; ma Milano è grande e offre anche ben altro. ma comunque ognuno fa le proprie scelte per carità. Io sono stato in varie isole caraibiche: tutto molto bello, ma giusto il tempo di una vacanza e poi basta.....
Ot e poi chiudo
Le possibilità di fare business che ha li in Europa te le sogni
Oltre alla tutela della proprietà privata e della persona che in Europa sono ormai un lontano ricordo
Ciao a tutti