Islanda: Standard & Poor's taglia rating
A 'BBB/A-3' da 'BBB+/A-2'
30 marzo, 17:44 ANSA) - Standard & Poor's ha tagliato il rating dell'Islanda a 'BBB/A-3' da 'BBB+/A-2'. Standard & Poor's ritiene che nel breve termine i rischi per l'economia dell'Islanda siano diminuiti, e rileva che la liquidita' rimarra' debole, ma stabile. Tuttavia ritiene che il ricorso a prolungati controlli sui mercati ridurra' la flessibilita' monetaria e fiscale e le prospettive di investimento, per cui ha abbassato il rating a BBB/A-3 da BBB+/A-2.
In realtà, S&P pronostica (come si era detto anche qui) un ritardo nei tempi di allentamento dei vincoli sulla convertibilità, in quanto finché non si trova un accordo sulla vicenda Icesave, restano bloccati i finanziamenti di FMI e paesi nordici, e senza finanziamenti non è possibile tornare alla convertibilità, altrimenti, priva delle munizioni finanziarie occorrenti a sostenerla nella prima fase di riapertura del cambio, l'ISK tracollerebbe.
Secondo S&P, nè l'Islanda, nè l'UK né l'Olanda vogliono un fallimento dei nuovi negoziati su Icesave, e tuttavia, essendoci elezioni generali in entrambi i paesi UE, un accordo sarà raggiunto verso fine anno. Quindi un allentamento dei vincoli di cambio in autunno non sarà possibile.
Ovviamente, questa ipotesi è soggetta al rischio che la politica non trovi le lunghezze giuste, e vi siano ulteriori ritardi e/o un fallimento delle trattative, che vedrebbe l'Islanda passare a rating sovrano HY.
Republic of Iceland FC Ratings Affirmed On Near-Term Stability; LC Ratings Lowered To 'BBB/A-3'; Outlook Negative
- We consider that the near-term risks to Iceland's economy have subsided.
We believe Iceland's external liquidity will remain weak, but stable, as
exchange controls will remain in place and partly compensate for delayed
official disbursements.
- We are therefore affirming our 'BBB-/A-3' foreign currency credit ratings
on Iceland.
- However, prolonged application of foreign exchange controls will, in our
view, restrict Iceland's monetary and fiscal flexibility and investment
prospects.
- Consequently, we are lowering our local currency credit ratings on
Iceland to 'BBB/A-3' from 'BBB+/A-2'. We are removing all the ratings
from CreditWatch where they were placed with negative implications on
Jan. 5, 2010.
- The negative outlook reflects the risk of a downgrade if the Icesave
negotiations were to break down, undermining Iceland's prospects for
external financing and exacerbating external liquidity pressures.
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) March 30, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it affirmed its 'BBB-/A-3' long- and short-term foreign
currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Iceland. At the same
time, the long- and short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings were
lowered to 'BBB/A-3' from 'BBB+/A-2'. The ratings were removed from
CreditWatch where they were placed with negative implications on Jan. 5, 2010.
The outlook is negative.
The 'BBB-' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged.
"The rating affirmation reflects our view that Iceland's near-term financial
outlook has stabilized since the electorate resoundingly rejected legislation
at a referendum in early March that would have required Iceland to compensate
The Netherlands and the U.K. for their deposit insurance outlays after the
failure of Icelandic Internet bank Icesave," said Standard & Poor's credit
analyst Moritz Kraemer.
In our view, the government coalition is likely to remain in place for the
remainder of this year, reducing the risks of a policy vacuum. The current
account has swung into a surplus and the currency has appreciated 4% against
the euro since the beginning of January. Moreover, the central bank has cut
its policy rates twice this year and official foreign currency reserves have
remained broadly stable.
We believe the authorities will now opt to keep exchange controls in place for
longer than envisaged when they were first imposed after Iceland's banking
system collapsed in late 2008. This should help preserve external liquidity
that could otherwise have come under pressure by the likely delay of future
disbursements from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Nordic
governments. However, we still consider a successful second IMF review
possible over the next few months.
"However, exchange controls will not be a long-term solution to Iceland's
fragile external liquidity situation," said Mr. Kraemer. "They are likely to
progressively weigh on investment prospects, which we believe are critical to
economic recovery. Nevertheless, we see that, at 6.5%, GDP shrank less
severely last year than we expected and the economy is likely to stabilize in
2010."
We expect the Icesave negotiations to continue after general elections in the
U.K. and The Netherlands, and a mutually agreeable compromise will likely be
found later this year. We believe none of parties would like to see the
negotiations fail. However, the lack of a fixed deadline may prolong the
negotiations, during which Iceland may need to keep capital controls in place.
Lifting them without secured external financing sources could lead to
depreciation pressure, which could result in renewed problems in the financial
sector. This is because the population remains highly indebted, including in
foreign currency.
The disbursement of $2.3 billion remaining under the IMF program is not linked
to the resolution of the Icesave conflict, and we believe that Iceland has
broadly fulfilled the program's conditionality on fiscal adjustment and
financial sector restructuring.
The IMF might release the funds even if only some of the bilateral loans
agreed with Nordic countries are also made available. However, the Nordic
governments have signaled their reluctance to disburse unless a solution to
the Icesave dispute is found. In the meantime, Iceland's gross external
financing needs have reached about 130% of its foreign exchange reserves and
current account receipts, which is much higher than the 'BBB' median (114%).
Despite strong external financing pressures and a government debt ratio that
quadrupled to 124% of GDP between 2007 and 2009, Iceland's prosperous and very
flexible economy supports an investment-grade rating. Iceland's GDP per capita
remains almost four times higher than the 'BBB' median.
"The outlook is negative because we still see a risk to Iceland's
creditworthiness if the Icesave negotiations with the U.K. and The Netherlands
were to break down," added Mr. Kraemer. "We believe this would undermine
Iceland's prospects for external financing, exacerbating external liquidity
pressures and limiting growth opportunities in light of continuing capital
controls."
Such a scenario could cause us to lower the rating on Iceland by one or two
notches, as would economic policy decisions that lead to another sharp
devaluation. An unexpected deterioration of political stability, jeopardizing
Iceland's capacity to react in a timely manner to economic shocks, would also
be detrimental to the country's creditworthiness, in our view.
An orderly and lasting stabilization of Iceland's external accounts and the
implementation of a credible program to reverse the high government debt ratio
could stabilize the ratings in the 'BBB' category.
