5 Reasons why this run is not over 2-Jun-09 05:51 am
1. With leap in the stock price, KERX no longer falls below the $35M threshold required by NASDAQ. This means that their appeal to NASDAQ NOT to delist KERX will likely be granted. The company is not only above the limit ($35M market cap) but one of the hottest stocks traded during the past 4 weeks.
2. New management: Yes, Bentsur is not entirely new - but that could be a good thing. Weiss is gone and the company appears to be making better decisions. One example is handling of the data from ASCO and the Press Releases tied to this information. In addition, the Board and Michael Tarnok moved QUICKLY toward bringing Bentsur. This fast decision helped bring in management when the portfolio needed it the most. ASCO is one of the biggest meetings where deals happen. I have no information to suggest that KERX was talking to possible partners, but this is a very common at this meeting. Finally, many on the management team and the board HAVE MADE DIRECT STOCK PURCHASES ON THE OPEN MARKET. This is a major, major sign of confidence. Putting their own money on the line here.
3. Start of Phase III Perifosine Trials - With the hugely positive randomized Phase II colon cancer trial at ASCO, KERX in fact has possibly "two shots on goal". By this, I mean that there is a clear path to approval now in Multiple Myeloma and Colon Cancer. The company has already outlined a MM trial with Richardson (Dana Farber) that would compare Velcade + Perifosine vs. Velcade alone. This is based on Richardson's positive Phase II trial showing the addition of P can reinduce a response to Velcade (major pre-clinical evidence to support this as well). KERX can also start a phase III trial in colon cancer with Xeloda + Perifosine vs. Xeloda alone. The Phase II data already suggests that this is a MAJOR WIN.
4. Partnership Soon?: KERX still owns the US rights to Perifosine in the United States. With positive data now in MM, Colon, Kidney, Waldenstroms, and other tumor types - Perifosine would represent a nice pickup for many companies. Based on its broad activity in multiple tumor types, Perifosine has blockbuster (>$1B) potential. Also, Perifosine would be the first-in-class molecule (AKT-inhibitor). AKT is in a similar pathway that is very hot right now, PI3K kinase. See the press release from EXEL where they signed a deal with Sanofi for $140M for rights to two products in this pathway. Partnership possibilities are HUGE RIGHT NOW. KERX has major leverage with the colon data and a product in LATE STAGE DEVELOPMENT (meaning we are 12-24 months from approval).
5. VISIBILITY: With the recent press from the Street.com and RealMoney.com, the word is getting out there. In fact, the big move yesterday came on 19 million shares. This is 19x the typical trading day volume. Some of these trades were from day traders but there are likely some institutions buying as well. WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE FIRST ANALYST UPGRADE OR INVESTMENT REPORT ON KERX. Once this happens, the stock could make a quick move into the mid single digits.
Based on similar companies with late stage oncology products with $1B potential, KERX would be fairly valued at between $500M and $900M. This would take the stock to $9-$15. HOLD ON FOR A WILD RIDE. THIS ONE IS NOT OVER. GONNA BE CHOPPY BUT THIS ONE IS A 10 BAGGER
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