Se realmente la realizzassero, chi ha preso a 75 (area) il lt2 ha fatto un gran affare...
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- BES EU2b recapitalization may be
done through EU983m subordinated debt exchange, plus EU1b new
rights issue, fully underwritten by the Bank Solvency Support
Facility, Merrion Stockbrokers Ciaran Callaghan writes in client
note.
* Sub debt investors would hold ~26% of the post EU2b recapped
bank
* Assumes a debt for equity tender at a price of 80 cents
of par to acquire new BES shares at rights issue price
of 22.5 cents, with a 50% discount to current share
price
* Says investors may emerge from debt-for-equity type of
restructuring in a stronger economic position
* Solution would pose difficulties for certain funds whose
mandates don’t allow them to make equity investments
* Exchanges could involve insertion of compulsory call options
at lower cash pricing to encourage take-up and minimize
likelihood of hold-outs
* While sourcing private investment would be a clear positive
for bank, there’s still a risk Portuguese government will be
forced to use the BSSF as backstop
* Existing shareholders would be able to exercise pre-
emptive rights and participate in order to avoid
dilution
* CET1 ratio would rise to 12.1% post recapitalization on 1Q
2014 pro-forma basis, assuming total losses of EU1.5b
relating to ESFG and Angolan exposures
* Sees upside to the equity valuation in this scenario;
estimates shares trade at ~0.6x TERP to TNAV, at a
significant discount to peers (~1x)