Commento a caldo di una investment bank.
The Novo saga is not finished yet.
Lone Star will hold 75% of the bank following a EUR 750m capital injection now and EUR 250m more within 3 years. The Resolution Fund will keep 25% of the bank and will use up to EUR 3.8bn to recap the bank when its CET1 ratio goes below 12.5%. But more importantly, this is all subject to a debt management operation requiring to generate EUR 500m of common equity tier1 capital through a
voluntary exchange of SNR bonds into AT1. This looks like it will target the zeros which will probably accept a haircut for a 10-12% coupon bond. As long as the operation is voluntary the CDS shouldn’t trigger, but we could have another MONTE situation where not enough investors agree to the exchange, forcing a more coercive solution.
We could trade a bit wider until we have more details on the exchange (1-2 months).