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Iron ore’s tumble into the $30s threatens the world’s biggest miners as prices approach break-even costs, according to Capital Economics Ltd. BHP Billiton Ltd. shares slumped to the lowest in 10 years and Rio Tinto Group dropped to the lowest since 2009.
The most expensive operations at the four largest suppliers are on the verge of making losses at rates below $40 a metric ton, said John Kovacs, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics in London, who estimates their break-even levels at $28 to $39, taking into account freight and other costs. While these producers will keep output strong, they’ll be constrained by low prices, he said by e-mail on Monday.
Price Sinks
Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao sank 1.1 percent to $38.65 a dry ton on Monday, a record low in daily prices compiled by Metal Bulletin Ltd. dating back to May 2009. The raw material peaked at $191.70 in 2011.
Kovacs said that while rates will stay low over the next year, he doesn’t believe they’ll remain below $40 for a significant length of time. He expects prices to recover slowly because demand won’t fall much further and the biggest miners will find it difficult to keep up output at these levels.
Mining company shares retreated. BHP declined 5.2 percent to A$17.05 in Sydney, the lowest since 2005. Rio dropped 4.3 percent to the lowest in more than six years and Fortescue closed 3 percent lower. Top producer Vale fell as much as 7.7 percent to the lowest since 2003 on Tuesday in Sao Paulo, while Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., the largest U.S. producer of iron ore, slid 3 percent in New York.
Iron ore’s tumble into the $30s threatens the world’s biggest miners as prices approach break-even costs, according to Capital Economics Ltd. BHP Billiton Ltd. shares slumped to the lowest in 10 years and Rio Tinto Group dropped to the lowest since 2009.
The most expensive operations at the four largest suppliers are on the verge of making losses at rates below $40 a metric ton, said John Kovacs, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics in London, who estimates their break-even levels at $28 to $39, taking into account freight and other costs. While these producers will keep output strong, they’ll be constrained by low prices, he said by e-mail on Monday.
Price Sinks
Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao sank 1.1 percent to $38.65 a dry ton on Monday, a record low in daily prices compiled by Metal Bulletin Ltd. dating back to May 2009. The raw material peaked at $191.70 in 2011.
Kovacs said that while rates will stay low over the next year, he doesn’t believe they’ll remain below $40 for a significant length of time. He expects prices to recover slowly because demand won’t fall much further and the biggest miners will find it difficult to keep up output at these levels.
Mining company shares retreated. BHP declined 5.2 percent to A$17.05 in Sydney, the lowest since 2005. Rio dropped 4.3 percent to the lowest in more than six years and Fortescue closed 3 percent lower. Top producer Vale fell as much as 7.7 percent to the lowest since 2003 on Tuesday in Sao Paulo, while Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., the largest U.S. producer of iron ore, slid 3 percent in New York.
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Crediti inesigibili
Another Bump Higher
In one of our recent updates on the weakness in the manufacturing sector we have mentioned the surge in the sum of charge-offs and delinquencies of commercial and industrial loans at US banks (hat tip to our friend BC, who inspired the chart below). As we were arguing at the time, this is a sign that inflationary US bank credit expansion to businesses will likely continue to stall and as a result US money supply growth should continue to decelerate.
Growth in charge-offs and delinquencies in commercial and industrial loans (black line, left hand scale) continues to accelerate – in spite of the fact that the Federal Funds rate (red line, rhs) has officially not even been hiked yet – click to enlarge.
What makes this chart so interesting is that similar accelerations in charge-offs and delinquencies have previously occurred shortly before recessions, whereby “shortly” is an elastic term: the lead times are obviously varying from case to case. Noteworthy is also the speed of the recent acceleration in this trend. We don’t think this is a good sign for the US economy.
Another Bump Higher
In one of our recent updates on the weakness in the manufacturing sector we have mentioned the surge in the sum of charge-offs and delinquencies of commercial and industrial loans at US banks (hat tip to our friend BC, who inspired the chart below). As we were arguing at the time, this is a sign that inflationary US bank credit expansion to businesses will likely continue to stall and as a result US money supply growth should continue to decelerate.
Growth in charge-offs and delinquencies in commercial and industrial loans (black line, left hand scale) continues to accelerate – in spite of the fact that the Federal Funds rate (red line, rhs) has officially not even been hiked yet – click to enlarge.
What makes this chart so interesting is that similar accelerations in charge-offs and delinquencies have previously occurred shortly before recessions, whereby “shortly” is an elastic term: the lead times are obviously varying from case to case. Noteworthy is also the speed of the recent acceleration in this trend. We don’t think this is a good sign for the US economy.
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brutta roba non avere sonno 
Tran
Transportation Sector Woes
Note in this context also that the economically highly sensitive transportation sector has recently been mercilessly stomped on in the stock market. This is a sector in which stock prices are now clearly following the worrisome deterioration in fundamentals.
Tran
Transportation Sector Woes
Note in this context also that the economically highly sensitive transportation sector has recently been mercilessly stomped on in the stock market. This is a sector in which stock prices are now clearly following the worrisome deterioration in fundamentals.
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21.365,40172,64(0.80%) 10:29AM CET
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