Obbligazioni valute high yield MESSICO, PEMEX e Obbligazioni in pesos (MXN)
- Creatore Discussione Gaudente
- Data di Inizio
marcob77
Moderator
Se il pil crescesse più del 2,5%.....attualmente le proiezioni sono per un +2,7% nel 2024 mentre per il 2025 sembrerebbe un rallentamento all'1,5%
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing
Global growth is projected to stay at 3.1 percent in 2024 and rise to 3.2 percent in 2025. Elevated central bank rates to fight inflation and a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weigh on economic activity. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, amid unwinding...
www.imf.org
Se anche il petrolio andasse a $200Se il pil crescesse più del 2,5%.....attualmente le proiezioni sono per un +2,7% nel 2024 mentre per il 2025 sembrerebbe un rallentamento all'1,5%
In tutti questi "articoli" non trovo una proiezione di quanto dovrebbe incassare Pemex dalle nuove raffinerie e di come il prezzo del petrolio alto dovrebbe aiutarla a sostenere il fatturato
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing
Global growth is projected to stay at 3.1 percent in 2024 and rise to 3.2 percent in 2025. Elevated central bank rates to fight inflation and a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weigh on economic activity. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, amid unwinding...www.imf.org
Se li papperebbero in corruzione e ruberie varie
Ricordo che i prelievi illeciti di petrolio dalle pipeline sono una delle cause del deficit di Pemex
La criminalità (anche dei narcos ma non solo) ha il totale controllo di ampie aeree del Messico
Se non risolveranno questi problemi Pemex sarà sempre in perdita
marcob77
Moderator
In realtà l'azienda è in attivo..il problema è che non guadagna abbastanza per ripagare i debiti in scadenza..e se non li puoi rollare..
Lady Gain
Forumer attivo
Il 2024 è il peggior anno con scadenze per 11 mld di $ non a caso lo Stato sta dando una enorme mano e cmq la prossima amministrazione tranne nel 2025 si troverà un 2026 e un 2027 sempre pesante
m.m.f
Forumer storico
m.m.f
Forumer storico
....devono trovare una soluzione definitiva,strutturale.Anche spostare le scadenze in avanti non serve a nulla ,o poco.Se nel durante non risolvi i problemi.
demox000
Forumer attivo
bloomberg.com
Maria Elena Vizcaino, Carolina Wilson
5–7 minuti
State-owned companies across Latin America face falling output, cash woes and expensive investment plans. Yet bondholders can’t get enough.
Companies such as Petroleos Mexicanos SA, Petroleos de Peru SA and Chile’s Codelco are luring investors by offering much higher yields than debt from their respective governments for what is proving essentially the same risk. The argument, it goes, is if the sovereign is doing well, it won’t let the company go under.
“The government won’t want to make a political crisis. Nobody is interested in that,” said Peter Varga, a senior portfolio manager at Erste Asset Management GmbH. “It’s cheaper to kick down the can on the road, so they’ll always help a bit just to avoid default.”
Betting on their bonds has paid off. Debt from Pemex, PetroPeru and Codelco beat the average 5.7% return for a Bloomberg index of emerging-market credits in the last three months by at least 1.3 percentage points. While investors have long been touting Pemex’s eye-popping yields, bets on state-backed giants in Peru and Chile are only now making a comeback on the expectation of government support after their weakening finances sent spreads to historical highs.
“These entities are really quite bizarre,” Philip Fielding, co-head of emerging markets at Mackay Shields in London. Pemex, for instance, “is quite an unusual monster that sits atop of an otherwise quite normal, investment-grade sovereign.”
PetroPeru started to build a refinery 10 years ago that ended up costing over twice the original budget, straining its finances and saddling it with $5.2 billion of debt. The company is running out of cash, executives have said, and needs over $1 billion in the next few months to pay suppliers. Codelco’s production is running at the lowest level in a quarter century while its debt load is the largest among major copper producers tracked by Bloomberg. Pemex, which was downgraded last week by Moody’s Investors Service, has $11 billion due this year and a total debt burden of $106 billion, making it the world’s most indebted oil company.
Yet bonds for all three companies are far from distressed — Codelco’s most liquid notes, due in 2036, are trading above par — largely on the expectation of continued government backing. When it downgraded the company late last year, S&P Global Ratings cited it as a reason for a stable outlook. While Fitch slashed PetroPeru’s credit score by three notches on concern about wavering support, the government reassured investors earlier this month saying the oil producer will get liquidity in the short term and meet all payments to bondholders.
Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who proved much more fiscally responsible
than investors feared, has repeatedly put money into Pemex over the years to keep it afloat. In its latest assessment of the sovereign rating, S&P said the government is, in effect, “formally raising debt on behalf of Pemex” this year, “given a line item in the budget to cover 90% of the company’s amortizations.”
“Mexico tends to a very nationalistic country and Pemex is like the eldest child within the family,” said Jennifer Gorgoll, an Atlanta-based portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman Group LLC, which owns Pemex bonds. “It’s so incredibly important to Mexico to maintain that stability and I don’t think a default will ever happen.”
That rings true across the region. Mexico actually has an oil expropriation day — March 18 — to mark the date it seized the nation’s oil fields in 1938. Nationalizing the copper industry in the early 1970s in Chile was so popular that even free-market dictator Augusto Pinochet refused to backtrack on it.
“They’re connected at the hip,” said Aaron Gifford, an analyst at T Rowe Price in Baltimore, said of the relationship between the region’s sovereigns and the state-backed companies. “I don’t think these governments could let them go under.”
Latin America’s Troubled State Companies Lure Bond Investors
Maria Elena Vizcaino, Carolina Wilson
5–7 minuti
State-owned companies across Latin America face falling output, cash woes and expensive investment plans. Yet bondholders can’t get enough.
Companies such as Petroleos Mexicanos SA, Petroleos de Peru SA and Chile’s Codelco are luring investors by offering much higher yields than debt from their respective governments for what is proving essentially the same risk. The argument, it goes, is if the sovereign is doing well, it won’t let the company go under.
“The government won’t want to make a political crisis. Nobody is interested in that,” said Peter Varga, a senior portfolio manager at Erste Asset Management GmbH. “It’s cheaper to kick down the can on the road, so they’ll always help a bit just to avoid default.”
Betting on their bonds has paid off. Debt from Pemex, PetroPeru and Codelco beat the average 5.7% return for a Bloomberg index of emerging-market credits in the last three months by at least 1.3 percentage points. While investors have long been touting Pemex’s eye-popping yields, bets on state-backed giants in Peru and Chile are only now making a comeback on the expectation of government support after their weakening finances sent spreads to historical highs.
‘Bizarre’
Examples of inadequate investment and poor management among state-run companies abound worldwide, with South Africa’s Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. a prime example after years of crippling blackouts. In Latin America, what stands out is not just the ability of governments to back them — Mexico, Peru and Chile are all investment grade credits with a fraction of the debt-to-GDP ratio seen in many developed nations — but their willingness to do so.“These entities are really quite bizarre,” Philip Fielding, co-head of emerging markets at Mackay Shields in London. Pemex, for instance, “is quite an unusual monster that sits atop of an otherwise quite normal, investment-grade sovereign.”
PetroPeru started to build a refinery 10 years ago that ended up costing over twice the original budget, straining its finances and saddling it with $5.2 billion of debt. The company is running out of cash, executives have said, and needs over $1 billion in the next few months to pay suppliers. Codelco’s production is running at the lowest level in a quarter century while its debt load is the largest among major copper producers tracked by Bloomberg. Pemex, which was downgraded last week by Moody’s Investors Service, has $11 billion due this year and a total debt burden of $106 billion, making it the world’s most indebted oil company.
Yet bonds for all three companies are far from distressed — Codelco’s most liquid notes, due in 2036, are trading above par — largely on the expectation of continued government backing. When it downgraded the company late last year, S&P Global Ratings cited it as a reason for a stable outlook. While Fitch slashed PetroPeru’s credit score by three notches on concern about wavering support, the government reassured investors earlier this month saying the oil producer will get liquidity in the short term and meet all payments to bondholders.
Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who proved much more fiscally responsible
than investors feared, has repeatedly put money into Pemex over the years to keep it afloat. In its latest assessment of the sovereign rating, S&P said the government is, in effect, “formally raising debt on behalf of Pemex” this year, “given a line item in the budget to cover 90% of the company’s amortizations.”
“Mexico tends to a very nationalistic country and Pemex is like the eldest child within the family,” said Jennifer Gorgoll, an Atlanta-based portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman Group LLC, which owns Pemex bonds. “It’s so incredibly important to Mexico to maintain that stability and I don’t think a default will ever happen.”
That rings true across the region. Mexico actually has an oil expropriation day — March 18 — to mark the date it seized the nation’s oil fields in 1938. Nationalizing the copper industry in the early 1970s in Chile was so popular that even free-market dictator Augusto Pinochet refused to backtrack on it.
“They’re connected at the hip,” said Aaron Gifford, an analyst at T Rowe Price in Baltimore, said of the relationship between the region’s sovereigns and the state-backed companies. “I don’t think these governments could let them go under.”
marcob77
Moderator
Tax Break for PEMEX / Emilio Lozoya’s Case
AMLO emphasized the importance of rescuing PEMEX. He criticized the Judicial Power’s decision to allow Lozoya to remain in house arrest.
mexicobusiness.news