Fitch Rates PEMEX's Proposed Debt Issuance
22 JAN 2020 04:17 PM ET
Fitch Ratings - Chicago - 22 January 2020:
Fitch Ratings has assigned long-term ratings of 'BB+' to Petroleos Mexicanos' (PEMEX) announced senior unsecured debt issuances and exchange offers. PEMEX expects to use the proceeds from the issuance to repay debt, particularly for a cash tender offer for two notes maturating in 2020. PEMEX also announced an exchange offer of up to USD2 billion targeting U.S. dollar-denominated notes with maturities between 2021 and 2048 to be exchanged for two new notes due in 2031 and 2060. Successful completion of this transaction will further bolster PEMEX's liquidity profile by reducing short-term debt and smoothing medium-term maturities. PEMEX has a Negative Rating Outlook.
PEMEX's ratings reflect the Mexican government's "moderate" support-track record for the company given the ongoing heavy tax burden, which has historically limited PEMEX's reinvestment capacity. Total support from the Mexican government toward PEMEX in 2019 may have totaled approximately USD9.5 billion after a USD5 billion capital injection and provided the company was able to realize 100% of the tax benefits the Mexican government extended to PEMEX last year. This support compares with approximately USD27 billion of transfers from PEMEX to the Mexican government in 2018 in the form of taxes, duties and others. Mexico has announced additional support measures for PEMEX for 2020 and 2021, which could amount to approximately USD11.4 in total for both years.
PEMEX's standalone credit profile (SCP) is commensurate with a 'ccc' rating as a result of the company's weak capital structure resulting from its elevated leverage. Fitch's assessment of the government's incentive to support the company is currently "strong", which together with the 'ccc' SCP, "very strong" ownership and control and "moderate" support track record result in PEMEX's rating being two notches below those of Mexico (BBB/Stable) in accordance with Fitch's Government-Related Entities (GRE) Criteria.
PEMEX's Negative Outlook reflects the potential for further deterioration of the company's SCP to below 'ccc'. Although PEMEX has implemented some cost cutting measures and received moderate tax cuts from Mexico, the company continues to severely underinvest in its upstream business, which could lead to further production and reserves decline. The very high level of transfers from PEMEX to the Mexican government continues to significantly pressure PEMEX's cash flow generation and reinvestment ability and weaken its SCP.