Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond case automobilistiche e accessorio auto

[Imark]

cosa mi dite dell' azienda Valeo da poco lo stato francese è entrato in con il 3% nel capitale...a me però la situazione sembra piuttosto fosca questa è quotata nell' etlx

FR0010206334

una cosa che non mi spiego è questa: come è possibile che ha una cedola così irrisoria?

E' stata emessa nel 2005... allora i tassi erano bassi e le cedole erano quelle per il corporate non a rischio...

La società è attiva nella componentistica auto, e la situazione non è allegra, sebbene neanche drammatica almeno nell'immediato, ma se la situazione dovesse ulteriormente peggiorare, o non migliorare in 12-18 mesi...

Rating Ba1 per Moody's dopo un recente downgrade.

Approximately EUR1.1 billion of Debt Securities Affected

Frankfurt, January 07, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today downgraded to Ba1 from Baa3 the long-term rating and to Not Prime from Prime-3 the short-term rating of Valeo S.A ("Valeo"). At the same time Moody's assigned a Ba1 Corporate Family Rating. This rating action concludes the review for downgrade initiated on December 22, 2008. The outlook is negative.

Falk Frey, Senior Vice President and lead analyst at Moody's for Valeo, commented: "The rating change reflects the sharp acceleration of deteriorating market conditions in most automotive markets and the expected decline in worldwide automotive production volumes adding to the pressure on profitability. The company's financial flexibility is therefore significantly weakened and a possible turnaround not expected before 2010."

The rating review was triggered by Valeo's announcement of a revised operating margin objective for FY2008 due to an accelerated decline in automobile production in the fourth quarter 2008 on December 17, 2008.

Operating margin is now expected to come out at around 2.6% for FY2008 compared to 3.6% in FY2007 based on the company's expectation of a decline in revenues by 25% in Q4 2008 resulting in an operating loss for that period.

Valeo anticipates no improvements in production levels next year compared with the fourth quarter of 2008 and therefore announced its plan to reduce its headcount by 5,000 employees out of the global workforce of 54,000 at the end of November. The implementation of this plan will result in significant restructuring provisions followed by cash outflows most likely this year. In Moody's view this would weaken Valeo's key financial metrics to an extent and time horizon no longer sufficient for the former rating level.

Moody's notes that the implementation of the announced severe adjustments to the reduced levels of demand and the cost savings resulting from these measures and from lower raw material costs could result in a possible turnaround by 2010.

The Ba1 rating continues to reflect the company's size, its broad product range and leading market positions in the automotive supplier industry as well as a prudent financial policy.

The negative outlook reflects the risk of a further significant weakening of Valeo's profitability and cash generation in 2009 due to the rapid and severe deterioration of automotive production in most markets and its expected continuation in the current fiscal year.

Moody's acknowledges the proactive measures initiated to react to an expected prolonged and severe decline in volumes. However, credit metrics will remain weak for the rating category in the intermediate term. The ratings could come under further pressure in case of (i) negative free cash flow exceeding €200 million in 2009 and not reaching break even in 2010; (ii) an inability to achieve leverage (Debt/EBITDA) below 4.0x in 2010 as well as (iii) worsening of market trends in the automotive sector.

Valeo's liquidity profile remains solid, with a long dated maturity schedule. Liquidity is provided by sizable amounts of cash readily available, a comfortable amount of headroom under its committed high quality bilateral bank lines maturing in more than 1 year as well as by operating cash flows.

These sources should cover all cash needs over the next 12 months arising from debt maturities, capital expenditures, working capital and day-to-day needs as well as dividend payments. The Ba1 rating incorporates the assumption that the solid liquidity profile will be maintained throughout the restructuring period.

Downgrades:
..Issuer: Valeo
....Commercial Paper, Downgraded to NP from P-3
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to a range of Ba2 to Ba1 from a range of Ba1 to Baa3
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba1 from Baa3
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba1 from Baa3
Assignments:
..Issuer: Valeo
....Probability of Default Rating, Assigned Ba1
....Corporate Family Rating, Assigned Ba1
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Assigned LGD3, 49%
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Valeo
....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

Moody's last rating action on Valeo was a review for possible downgrade of its Baa3 long- and Prime-3 short-term ratings on December 22, 2008.

Valeo S.A., headquartered in Paris, is one of the leading global suppliers of automotive components. In 2007, Valeo generated total sales of € 9.6 billion

 

[troppidebiti]

vendite anche sui bond renault e psa..il mercato li prezza al 6 netto con scadenza di 2 anni....secondo me gli incentivi non funzioneranno o meglio funzioneranno solo in parte a fine 2009 pescheremo questi bond a valori molto bassi

 

[cangiante]

Mark,
Non si e' piu' parlato del perpetual di Porsche, che e' tra l'altro ulteriormente calato... Qualche commento?

 

[Imark]

Mark,
Non si e' piu' parlato del perpetual di Porsche, che e' tra l'altro ulteriormente calato... Qualche commento?

Questa è una crisi che ha colpito soprattutto (almeno fino ad ora) i benestanti, quelli che mettevano il denaro nei titoli azionari delle grandi banche perché "hanno scarsa volatilità" e "danno abbondanti dividendi".

Sono anche i migliori clienti Porsche ... attendo dati recenti sull'andamento delle vendite... gli ultimi disponibili, cmq non più vecchi di poche settimane fa e postati nel 3D, illustrano una situazione di netto calo anche qui...

Anche Porsche si trova a finanziare nuovo debito bancario o a rifinanziare il vecchio a condizioni non particolarmente entusiasmanti, dovendo offrire ben 525 punti base sopra il midswap... e la trattativa è ancora in corso.

La cosa trova esplicazione nel comportamento di Porsche nel valersi delle linee di credito concessegli, che le banche hanno avuto modo di stigmatizzare (trovi tutto nella Reuters postata sotto).

Porsche ha finalmente chiesto un rating, che dovrebbe arrivare a giugno, dopodiché tornerà con proprie emissioni sul mercato obbligazionario per ripagare, fra l'altro, un ammontare concesso dalle banche a fronte di prestito ponte.

E questi saranno bond senior rispetto al perpetual.

RLPC-UPDATE 2-Porsche ups fees on 12.5 bln euro loan - sources
Thu Feb 26, 2009 4:21pm GMT

* Seeks 10 bln euro for loan refi, 2.5 bln for general use
* Company paying 275 basis points interest margin plus fees
* Top fees of 250 bps bring all-in return to 525 bps
(Adds company comment)
By Tessa Walsh

LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - German carmaker Porsche has increased the fees on its 12.5 billion euro ($15.9 billion) loan refinancing to boost support for the deal before an end-of-March deadline, banking sources said on Thursday.

Porsche wants to raise 10 billion euros to refinance an existing loan maturing March 22, and is also seeking 2.5 billion euros of new money for general corporate purposes, they said.

Porsche is paying an interest margin of 275 basis points (bp) on the loan, and has increased fees by 50 bp to 250 bp for banks committing 1 billion euros and 200 bp for banks committing 500 million euros, several of the sources said.

This would give top-tier banks an all-in return of 525 bp while banks making smaller commitments would receive 475 bp.

"As long as the negotiations are continuing, we will not comment on details," a spokesman for Porsche said.

Porsche is seeking to soothe relationships with its lenders after drawing down the 10 billion euro standby revolving loan last February at around 20 bp over the Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR) to make financial investments, which brought steep losses to banks that were facing funding costs as high as 100 bp.

"I get the impression that banks are not appearing to be too enthusiastic because of their dislike of the way that Porsche behaved historically and they're going to make them pay for it," a senior banker close to the loan said.

Porsche's 10 billion euro loan is the remainder of a 35 billion euro loan that financed its purchase of an increased stake in Volkswagen AG in 2007.

While bankers say Porsche is likely to get the 10 billion euros it needs to refinance the maturing loan, opinion is divided as to whether the company will manage to secure the full 12.5 billion euros, even after the fee increase (ndr... leggasi come: le banche sono ancora inquazzate) .

"10 billion euros is the absolute focus and 12.5 billion euros would be nice to have," a second banker close to the deal said.

The process will see Porsche's bank group shrinking from around 30 banks to 10, bankers said, after 12 banks were invited to commit 1 billion euros each.

Cash-strapped lenders are struggling to fund the 1 billion euro commitments, and several have committed smaller 500 million euro tickets, several of the sources said.

FURTHER PLEDGES

Porsche has had to make further pledges to its banks, both in terms of refinancing the loan and ancillary business, which includes bond fees on the loan refinancing and other business, that will further boost the economics on the current loan.

"Porsche has had to deliver for the banks or they won't support it. The banks are getting their pound of flesh in ancillary business and a strong and credible refinancing strategy around capital market issuance," the second banker close to the deal said.

Porsche is seeking a 5 billion euro loan with a one-year maturity that will be refinanced in the capital markets and a 7.5 billion euro one-year revolving credit that can be extended for a further year, and will also be partly refinanced in the capital markets, several of the sources said.

The 275 bp interest margin on the loan will increase every six months to encourage the company to issue bonds and pricing will also be linked to a ratings grid, they said.

Porsche has pledged to seek a rating, which is expected by June, and plans to issue bonds thereafter. However, lenders have described the company's refinancing strategy as "wooly".

Banks are expected to commit to the loan by the end of this week or early next week and have been asked to respond by March 5. Bankers say the decisions are being taken at the bank board level.

"This is no longer a loan syndicate decision now and is being taken at the CFO (chief financial officer) and board member level," a third banker said. "This is more of a political decision than a commercial decision now." (Reporting by Tessa Walsh; editing by Dan Lalor and Karen Foster) ($1 = 0.7853 euro)

 

[Imark]

Intanto, nel seguire la caduta degli angeli dell'automotive europeo, anche S&P si è aggiunta a Moody's nel ridurre il rating di Renault e Peugeot, sebbene scegliendo di tenerle ai margini dell'IG.

In particolare per Renault - che Moody's ha già portato a rating HY - l'aspettativa è che almeno per il 2009 possa farcela a restare a "non speculativa", seppure ai margini dell'IG e l'auspicio è che nel 2010 soffi qualche vento di ripresa per il mercato automobilistico così da consentire anche a Renault di migliorare la propria metrica creditizia.

L'outlook negativo esprime tuttavia la possibilità di un ulteriore peggioramento del mercato automobilistico nel 2009, di un prolungamento della crisi al 2010, dell'insuccesso delle misure varate di recente da Renault a contenimento delle perdite operative che sarebbero altrimenti generate dal contesto di mercato attuale. Situazioni queste nelle quali S&P procederebbere immediatamente alla riduzione del rating.

In ogni caso S&P considera improbabile anche la mera revisione migliorativa dell'outlook in questo frangente. Come dire: è già molto se non passa a rating speculativo, ma è quasi impossibile che possa migliorare più di tanto.

French Automaker Renault S.A. Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'BBB-' On Weak Financial Profile; Outlook Negative

MILAN (Standard & Poor's) March 5, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on French automaker Renault S.A. to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The outlook is negative. At the same time, we removed the ratings from CreditWatch with negative implications, where they had been placed on Feb. 3, 2009. We also affirmed the 'A-3' short-term corporate credit rating.

"The downgrade reflects our opinion on Renault's deteriorated financial measures in 2008 and our expectation for further weakening in 2009, due to the global economic recession and declining demand for cars," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Barbara Castellano.

"Although we believe that Renault's financial profile will likely be at the border of what we generally consider commensurate with the 'BBB-' investment-grade rating during the coming quarters, we currently expect some improvement in auto sales starting from 2010 that, along with Renault's own actions, would to enable the group to improve credit measures to a level we consider more clearly commensurate with the rating.

The group reported net industrial debt of €7.9 billion on Dec. 31, 2008, versus €2.1 billion at end-December 2007. "The negative outlook reflects the significant risk, in our opinion, that Renault's financial performance stands to decline beyond our already weak base-case scenario, amid lower prospects in 2009 and 2010 for the auto industry," said Ms. Castellano.

The rating integrates the assumption that Renault's measures to protect cash flow generation will likely curb 2009 cash burn, in accordance with the group's guidance. At the same time, the expected beginning of economic recovery in 2010 should contribute to Renault's improved financial performance in the medium term.

We could downgrade Renault imminently, in particular if we consider that the group's protection measures are insufficient--taking into account market and operating developments over the coming quarters--or if market projections for short- to medium-term auto demand fall yet again, linked to a prolongation of the economic downturn.

The possibility that we would revise the outlook to stable is remote at this stage. We expect to consider an outlook change only after we see that Renault's financial measures sustainably resume levels we consider more clearly consistent with the 'BBB-' investment-grade rating.

 

[Imark]

Stesso discorso per Peugeot... cambia qualche virgola, e se per renault si poneva l'accento sull'impennata del debito, per Peugeot si sottolinea come senza il finanziamento erogato dallo stato francese, la liquidità sarebbe stata presumibilmente inadeguata a supporto del rating.

Che resta cmq in bilico, specie ove un ulteriore peggioramento del mercato, piuttosto che l'inefficacia delle misure a salvaguardia dei margini disposte da Peugeot abbiano come conseguenza un cash flow negativo eccedente i 2 mld di euro.

Peugeot S.A. Downgraded To 'BBB-/A-3' As Weak Demand Impacts Financial Metrics; Outlook Negative

MILAN (Standard & Poor's) March 5, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on French automaker Peugeot S.A. (PSA) to 'BBB-/A-3' from 'BBB+/A-2'. The outlook is negative. At the same time, all ratings were removed from CreditWatch with negative implications, where they had been placed on Feb. 3, 2009.

"The downgrade reflects our opinion on the deterioration in the PSA group's reported financial measures in 2008, and our expectation that there will be further deterioration in 2009 due to the global recession and decline in auto demand," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Barbara Castellano.

We expect that PSA's financial profile will temporarily be at the border of what we generally consider commensurate with an investment-grade rating. However, we believe that some improvement in auto sales starting from 2010, along with Peugeot's own actions, could allow a bounce back in credit measures to a level more commensurate with an investment-grade rating.

In February, the French state communicated that PSA will shortly receive a loan of €3 billion to support the group's industrial liquidity profile. Although we don't think that such government interventions will resolve the structural issues the industry is facing, and we understand that this support came with some conditions that limit the ability of the automaker to adopt some restructuring measures, we deem it as relevant in our assessment of the group's liquidity risk.

Without this additional loan, industrial liquidity would in our view have been too tight to accommodate the new cash burn the group expects in the current year. The negative outlook reflects our view that there is significant risk of a further weakening in PSA's financial performance and prospects in 2009 and 2010 beyond our current already weak base-case scenario, translating into negative rating pressure.

The 'BBB-' rating assumes that PSA's measures to protect cash flow generation will curb 2009 cash burn to about €2 billion, while the economic recovery we believe could start in 2010 could lead to an improving financial performance in the medium term.

A downgrade could be triggered imminently in particular if we come to believe that PSA's cash use could significantly exceed the level included in our analysis. This would most likely be caused by further negative revisions to short- to medium-term auto demand expectations.

The possibility of an outlook revision to stable is remote at this time. We expect to consider this only if the group's financial measures sustainably return to a level more consistent with an investment-grade rating.

 

[cangiante]

grazie Mark!

 

[Imark]

grazie Mark!

Figurati... aggiungo che la possibilità che Porsche non paghi dividendo per 1 anno o 2 dopo l'acquisto di Volkswagen ed in una congiuntura per il mercato automobilistico globale quale quella attuale è abbastanza concreta.

Il sogno di Piech di unire nuovamente sotto un unico controllo le due società rischia di costare salato agli obbligazionisti del perpetual ed i conti vanno tenuti strettamente d'occhio.

Sarebbe, nel caso, una strepitosa occasione di acquisto, IMHO...

 

[Imark]

Questa è una crisi che ha colpito soprattutto (almeno fino ad ora) i benestanti, quelli che mettevano il denaro nei titoli azionari delle grandi banche perché "hanno scarsa volatilità" e "danno abbondanti dividendi".

Sono anche i migliori clienti Porsche ... attendo dati recenti sull'andamento delle vendite... gli ultimi disponibili, cmq non più vecchi di poche settimane fa e postati nel 3D, illustrano una situazione di netto calo anche qui...

.............

Ritorno al discorso di ieri, quando con Cangiante ci si chiedeva, con riferimento a Porsche, ma più in generale al segmento premium dell'automotive, come stessero andando le vendite in un contesto di mercato quale quello attuale.

Ebbene, la serietà della situazione è illustrata dai dati delle vendite di Daimler e di BMW riguardanti il mese di febbraio ed illustrati venerdì scorso.

A gennaio il calo delle vendite era stato del 38% per i marchio Mercedes-Benz e del 35% per il gruppo Daimler.

A febbraio siamo attorno al 28% per Mercedes-Benz e ad un 25% per Daimler complessivamente (comprensivo anche di smart e maybach)

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D96OMM6O0.htm

Per BMW siamo poco sotto, attorno al 24,4%

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-autos/idUSTRE52825X20090309

 

[lorenzo63]

Figurati... aggiungo che la possibilità che Porsche non paghi dividendo per 1 anno o 2 dopo l'acquisto di Volkswagen ed in una congiuntura per il mercato automobilistico globale quale quella attuale è abbastanza concreta.

Il sogno di Piech di unire nuovamente sotto un unico controllo le due società rischia di costare salato agli obbligazionisti del perpetual ed i conti vanno tenuti strettamente d'occhio.

Sarebbe, nel caso, una strepitosa occasione di acquisto, IMHO...

..Mi sfugge, Mark: per l' azionario o per i bond?