May 28 -- The probability of a global bear market for stocks is rising as government-spending cuts risk stifling economic recoveries, the head of international equities at one of Scotland’s biggest fund companies said.
Michael McNaught-Davis, who is responsible for about 11 billion pounds ($15.9 billion) at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership in Edinburgh, estimates there’s a 40 percent chance of an end to the bull market compared with 30 percent a month ago. The
MSCI World Index has fallen 10 percent this month amid mounting concern about the ability of governments in Greece and Italy and elsewhere in Europe to reduce record budget deficits.
“There is a definite risk of a bear market and the reason why we don’t quite believe it at the moment is that at the micro level it still looks quite rosy,” said McNaught-Davis in an interview at his office in the Scottish capital. “But at some point the bigger picture will impact economies more severely.”
The MSCI World Index, a gauge of stock performance worldwide, has fallen 15 percent since April 15, when it reached the highest level since September 2008. The euro tumbled about 10 percent against the dollar over the same period, while U.S.
Treasury bills jumped as investors looked to protect money.
McNaught-Davis said Scottish Widows, which runs about 148 billion pounds overall, similar to Standard Life Investments and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in Scotland, still expects the MSCI World Index to
advance this year and next.
‘Incredible Dislocation’
“The balance of evidence suggests we’ll get through it,” said McNaught-Davis, 45. “What we’ve been through is an incredible dislocation and extreme volatility and there should be a long way to go.”
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The International Monetary Fund last month raised its forecast for global growth this year and cautioned that a failure of nations to contain soaring public debt might have “severe” consequences for the world economy. The economy will expand 4.2 percent in 2010, the fastest pace since 2007, compared with a January projection of 3.9 percent, the IMF said.
The risk of a bear market will increase if unemployment increases in Europe, McNaught-Davis said.
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The greatest concern is emerging markets, he said. There are “more compelling” stock investments in developed markets after a 77 percent gain in the
MSCI Emerging Markets Index in the year ended March 31. The measure has fallen 16 percent since rising to a 21-month high on April 15.
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Bear Market Risks Increase to 40%, Scottish Widows Manager Says - Bloomberg.com