Eccolo...
Fitch Affirms PEMEX's Ratings; Outlook to Stable
26 Jan 2009 6:25 PM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-New York-26 January 2009: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Petroleos Mexicanos' (PEMEX) foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB' and its local currency IDR at 'BBB+.' Fitch has simultaneously removed the ratings of PEMEX from Rating Watch Positive and has assigned them a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed the National long-term rating and all related nationally rated debt securities at 'AAA(mex)', as well as the National Short-term rating of F1+.
In conjunction with these rating actions, Fitch has affirmed the 'BBB' ratings of all debt issued by Pemex Project Funding Master Trust. The securities issued by Pemex Project Funding Master Trust have been removed from Rating Watch Positive.
The move to a Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that PEMEX might increase leverage to finance its aggressive capital budget and/or delay necessary investments to reverse declining production levels given the significantly lower cash flow generation potential in the current declining oil price environment. In addition, PEMEX's new fiscal regime and the Energy Reform provide limited benefits to improve the company's financial flexibility and attract private investment to the industry.
Further considered in this rating action was the revision of the Rating Outlook of Mexico ('BBB+'/'A-') to Negative from Stable during November 2008 and the close linkage of PEMEX's rating with that of the government.
PEMEX's ratings reflect its solid pretax financial and export-oriented operating profile, an attractive upstream cost structure, its fiscal importance to the sovereign, and its dominant domestic market position. The ratings also reflect PEMEX's significant debt levels, sizable but declining proven hydrocarbon reserves, weak net worth position, substantial tax burden, large capital investment requirements, and exposure to political interference risk.
As a state-owned oil company, PEMEX's foreign currency rating remains highly linked with the credit profile of the United Mexican States (UMS), whose Fitch foreign currency IDR is 'BBB+'. Despite pari-passu treatment with sovereign debt in the past, PEMEX's debt lacks UMS's explicit guarantee.
In the first nine months of 2008, PEMEX's crude oil production declined at an alarming rate of 9.7% to 2.822 million barrels of crude oil per day after declining by 5.5% in 2007. Declines in Cantarell were only partially offset by production increases primarily from the Ku-Maloob-Zaap fields. However, total hydrocarbon production has remained relatively constant since 2004 at about 4.4 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, as natural gas production increases in the Burgos and Veracruz fields have offset oil production declines.
Proven hydrocarbon reserves also continue to decline. In 2007 they fell by 5.1% to 14.7 billion BOE which represents an average life of 9 years. The company expects this negative trend to reverse in the future as reserve replacement reaches 100% by 2012. The proven reserve replacement rate has increased from 26% in 2005 to 50% in 2007 and is expected to be even higher in 2008. PEMEX was not able to translate high international oil prices into higher production in spite of increased investment which averaged $16.3 billion in the last three years and is expected to be about $20 billion in 2009. This highlights concerns regarding efficiency in capital expenditures allocation and the achievement of prospective long-term operating targets.
With relatively stable debt levels, PEMEX's 2008 credit metrics have improved due to rising cash flow that has resulted from elevated oil prices throughout most of the year. As of Sept. 30, 2008, total debt was $48 billion and leverage (Debt/EBITDA) was 0.6 times (x), an improvement from 0.8x during 2007. Adjusting for underfunded pension plan and OPEB debt, PEMEX's total adjusted debt is $96 billion and its adjusted leverage ratio is 1.3x. In dollar terms, these liabilities are declining with the current MXN devaluation and could drop even further if PEMEX reaches an accord with the union similar to the one reached by the Mexican government with public servants in 2007 (ISSTE Pension Reform). In 2009 Fitch expects credit metrics to deteriorate sharply due to depressed oil prices.
PEMEX's new fiscal regime and the Energy Reform provide limited benefits to improve the company's financial flexibility and attract private investments to the industry. Last year the Mexican Congress approved a comprehensive reform of both the energy sector and PEMEX legal frameworks, the so-called Energy Reform. Among other things, the Energy Reform improves PEMEX's corporate governance, increases management's execution capacity in investment decisions, allows the company to provide incentives or make modifications to awarded contracts, and stipulates the issuance of citizen bonds (debt securities which may be acquired by micro-investors and whose return is linked to PEMEX's performance).
The President's proposal to allow private-sector participation in storage, transportation and refining was eliminated from the final version of the Energy Reform due to opposition in Congress. These actions, together with limited upside under contract awards, might limit PEMEX's capacity to attract the necessary capital and technology for the growth of the industry, in particular for off-shore drilling where most of Mexico's hydrocarbon reserves are located.
Also, in 2008 a new tax regime for PEMEX went into effect, which reduces the ordinary hydrocarbon duty form 79% to 74% and will continue to decline by 0.5% a year until it reaches 71.5% in 2012. In October 2008, PEMEX's fiscal regime was modified again to increase the deduction caps for ordinary hydrocarbon duty purposes, which gives the company additional financial flexibility.
Nevertheless, PEMEX's contribution to the government continues to be the highest among the Latin American national oil companies and among the highest in the industry across the world. In 2007, total contributions to the government were about $62 billion, representing 59% of total revenues. Fitch believes that while the Energy Reform and the change in PEMEX's fiscal regime are positive, they only represent one step in the right direction, and there are still significant changes to be made in the sector.
PEMEX is Mexico's state oil and natural gas company. It is the nation's largest company and ranks among the world's largest vertically integrated petroleum enterprises, with 2007 proven oil and gas reserves of 14.7 billion BOE.