Imark
Forumer storico
Grazie Capirex, la tua capacità di analisi è preziosa...
Come quella del buon Seven...
Obbligazioni societarie Obbligazioni Oil & Gas (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Hopa
- Data di Inizio
Grazie Capirex, la tua capacità di analisi è preziosa...
Come quella del buon Seven...
Imark
Forumer storico
Il 20092010 periodo difficile per l'oil & gas, secondo Fitch, che si aspetta un andamento debole delle commodities... Il focus del report è sugli USA, ma le considerazioni fatte (specie quelle che muovono dal possibile andamento dei prezzi delle materie prime) sono almeno in parte estensibili anche agli emittenti di altre aree geografiche.
Per Fitch i corsi dell'oil nel 2010 potrebbero attestarsi in caso di contesto macroeconomico stressed in USA, anche sui 40-45 $ al barile.
Fitch: U.S. Oil & Gas Sector's Credit Quality to Weaken as Commodity Fundamentals Remain Under Siege
30 Jul 2009 4:20 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-Chicago-30 July 2009: In its semiannual 'Oil & Gas Insights' special report, Fitch Ratings expects that lower commodity prices will further weaken the credit quality of the U.S. Oil & Gas sector through 2009 and into 2010.
Fitch expects the drilling & services and refining subsectors to remain the most pressured as they have less flexibility to cut capital expenditures in a timely manner than upstream companies in the current downturn. Current supply and demand fundamentals for both crude oil and natural gas continue to point toward weakening prices, although natural gas prices remain under more intense pricing pressures as supply from U.S. onshore production and expectations of increased LNG imports continue to weigh on the market.
The report, released today, says the drilling & services sector is suffering from an imbalance between supply and demand with weakened commodity prices having reduced demand just as supply of newbuild rigs continues to hit the market. Fitch expects the sector to continue to be under pressure from customers to reduce prices, driving margins lower in 2009 and 2010.
Upstream companies continue to reduce capital expenditures in response to lower commodity prices, and falling 2010 strip prices would indicate little propensity for a significant increase in spending levels. While drilling and service companies are benefiting from previously signed contracts, Fitch expects credit profiles to decline from current levels.
For the downstream, the combination of soft product demand, low plant utilizations, and compressed crude oil spreads continues to pressure refining economics and suppress industry earnings despite the presence of decent crack spreads.
Deep conversion refiners with significant coking capacity have been particularly affected by current market conditions, as crude oil differentials, which historically created feedstock advantages for this group, collapsed. Fitch notes that one rising threat that emerged over the first half of the year was fast-rising crude oil, which appears to have become somewhat decoupled from underlying product demand in North America.
For crude oil markets, falling demand levels continues to be the biggest driver of falling prices. The last time demand for oil declined due to a severe economic recession and demand destruction from high prices, it took 10 years for demand levels to reach their previous highs.
Global oil supply concerns have also been mitigated due to the significant increase in spare capacity from OPEC producers. While fundamentals continue to indicate depressed pricing for oil, Fitch acknowledges that non-fundamental factors could again drive crude prices higher. Fears in the market of rampant inflation stemming from the quantitative easing actions by central banks around the world intended to stem the global economic recession could be a catalyst for higher crude oil prices.
While oil markets continue to struggle with falling demand levels, natural gas markets are plagued with rising supply and falling demand levels. Despite falling natural gas prices, supply of natural gas during the first four months of 2009 is up 2.6% over 2008 levels.
Demand, led down by weak industrial demand and mild weather conditions, has only served to compound the problems facing natural gas prices.
Because of the significant negative fundamentals facing natural gas markets, Fitch sees little opportunity of a rebound in prices in 2009. Falling 2010 forward prices could support reduced drilling by upstream companies and help bring the market into equilibrium during 2010. Fitch continues to expect natural gas prices during 2009 and perhaps 2010 to be closer to the Fitch stress case prices of $3.50/mcf (2009) and $3.75/mcf (2010).
To access 'Oil & Gas Insights,' Fitch's semiannual look at developments in the oil & gas industry, please visit Fitch's web site at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
Per Fitch i corsi dell'oil nel 2010 potrebbero attestarsi in caso di contesto macroeconomico stressed in USA, anche sui 40-45 $ al barile.
Fitch: U.S. Oil & Gas Sector's Credit Quality to Weaken as Commodity Fundamentals Remain Under Siege
30 Jul 2009 4:20 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-Chicago-30 July 2009: In its semiannual 'Oil & Gas Insights' special report, Fitch Ratings expects that lower commodity prices will further weaken the credit quality of the U.S. Oil & Gas sector through 2009 and into 2010.
Fitch expects the drilling & services and refining subsectors to remain the most pressured as they have less flexibility to cut capital expenditures in a timely manner than upstream companies in the current downturn. Current supply and demand fundamentals for both crude oil and natural gas continue to point toward weakening prices, although natural gas prices remain under more intense pricing pressures as supply from U.S. onshore production and expectations of increased LNG imports continue to weigh on the market.
The report, released today, says the drilling & services sector is suffering from an imbalance between supply and demand with weakened commodity prices having reduced demand just as supply of newbuild rigs continues to hit the market. Fitch expects the sector to continue to be under pressure from customers to reduce prices, driving margins lower in 2009 and 2010.
Upstream companies continue to reduce capital expenditures in response to lower commodity prices, and falling 2010 strip prices would indicate little propensity for a significant increase in spending levels. While drilling and service companies are benefiting from previously signed contracts, Fitch expects credit profiles to decline from current levels.
For the downstream, the combination of soft product demand, low plant utilizations, and compressed crude oil spreads continues to pressure refining economics and suppress industry earnings despite the presence of decent crack spreads.
Deep conversion refiners with significant coking capacity have been particularly affected by current market conditions, as crude oil differentials, which historically created feedstock advantages for this group, collapsed. Fitch notes that one rising threat that emerged over the first half of the year was fast-rising crude oil, which appears to have become somewhat decoupled from underlying product demand in North America.
For crude oil markets, falling demand levels continues to be the biggest driver of falling prices. The last time demand for oil declined due to a severe economic recession and demand destruction from high prices, it took 10 years for demand levels to reach their previous highs.
Global oil supply concerns have also been mitigated due to the significant increase in spare capacity from OPEC producers. While fundamentals continue to indicate depressed pricing for oil, Fitch acknowledges that non-fundamental factors could again drive crude prices higher. Fears in the market of rampant inflation stemming from the quantitative easing actions by central banks around the world intended to stem the global economic recession could be a catalyst for higher crude oil prices.
While oil markets continue to struggle with falling demand levels, natural gas markets are plagued with rising supply and falling demand levels. Despite falling natural gas prices, supply of natural gas during the first four months of 2009 is up 2.6% over 2008 levels.
Demand, led down by weak industrial demand and mild weather conditions, has only served to compound the problems facing natural gas prices.
Because of the significant negative fundamentals facing natural gas markets, Fitch sees little opportunity of a rebound in prices in 2009. Falling 2010 forward prices could support reduced drilling by upstream companies and help bring the market into equilibrium during 2010. Fitch continues to expect natural gas prices during 2009 and perhaps 2010 to be closer to the Fitch stress case prices of $3.50/mcf (2009) and $3.75/mcf (2010).
To access 'Oil & Gas Insights,' Fitch's semiannual look at developments in the oil & gas industry, please visit Fitch's web site at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
samantaao
Forumer storico
non ho tempo nemmeno per osservazioni... scusate mi limito ad aggiornare i prezzi e con la retta spero di non aver commesso cappelle.
mercati di alcuni prezzi (grazie a Mark):
XS0273933902 ICMA CHESAPEAKE 2017
XS0112278303 ICMA ENI 2010
XS0167456267 MOT ENI 2013
IT0004503717 MOT ENI 2015
XS0176996956 ICMA GAZ CAPITAL 2010
XS0231264275 ICMA MOL 2015
XS0287409212 ICMA REPSOL 2017
XS0099213547 ICMA STATOIL 2011
mercati di alcuni prezzi (grazie a Mark):
XS0273933902 ICMA CHESAPEAKE 2017
XS0112278303 ICMA ENI 2010
XS0167456267 MOT ENI 2013
IT0004503717 MOT ENI 2015
XS0176996956 ICMA GAZ CAPITAL 2010
XS0231264275 ICMA MOL 2015
XS0287409212 ICMA REPSOL 2017
XS0099213547 ICMA STATOIL 2011
Allegati
pmpm
Nuovo forumer
Ciao Carlo!
Grazie anche a te per il lavoro di monitoraggio!
Vorrei dirti due cose:
1) quando scarico i files, vedo che le colonne dei rendimenti lordo e netto, e la colonna della duration sembrano avere dei problemi; non solo in questo file ma anche in precedenti. Come mai?
NB Questa e' una scioccezza:
2) se hai tempo e modo: non e' che nell'ultima tabella potresti aggiungere anche la data di scadenza? Mi sembrerebbe rendere lo schema di piu' facile e immediata lettura.
Ciao!
Grazie anche a te per il lavoro di monitoraggio!
Vorrei dirti due cose:
1) quando scarico i files, vedo che le colonne dei rendimenti lordo e netto, e la colonna della duration sembrano avere dei problemi; non solo in questo file ma anche in precedenti. Come mai?
NB Questa e' una scioccezza:
2) se hai tempo e modo: non e' che nell'ultima tabella potresti aggiungere anche la data di scadenza? Mi sembrerebbe rendere lo schema di piu' facile e immediata lettura.
Ciao!
Imark
Forumer storico
Total rimane in assoluto fra i players più solidi del comparto.
Fitch Affirms Total S.A. at 'AA'; Outlook Stable
17 Aug 2009 10:36 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-17 August 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Total S.A.'s (Total) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'AA' respectively. Fitch has also affirmed Total's Short-term IDR at 'F1+'. Total Capital's senior unsecured issues, which are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Total, are affirmed at 'AA', Total Capital is a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of Total. The Outlook for all ratings is Stable.
The Stable Outlook for Total's ratings reflects Fitch's expectations that the company will continue to maintain its strong industry position and significant global market share as it works to complete key projects due to come on stream in 2009 and 2010.
The Outlook further reflects expectations that Total will continue to adhere to its conservative financial policy and maintain leverage and coverage ratios that are in line with the current ratings despite a recent increase in borrowings in 2009.
Total's high investment grade ratings reflect its significant production scale and well-diversified and vertically integrated profile which allow it to retain a dominant position in the global oil and gas industry. Its ratings are further supported by the company's growing position in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. As of 2008,
Fitch estimates Total to have about 8 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity and this is expected to rise to approximately 12-13 mtpa by 2014. Total also remains a relatively low cost producer, with three-year average upstream production costs per barrel of oil equivalent of approximately USD5.25 compared to over USD6.0 for BP ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable) and more than USD10 for Royal Dutch Shell ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable).
Total's strong business profile is somewhat offset by a geographic production profile that is increasingly focused on emerging market countries, particularly in Africa, which has overtaken Europe as the largest production region for the group. Fitch sees this alteration in geographic focus as increasing the risk for Total's production and reserve profile.
Additionally, the company faces exploration and development challenges in North America due to a higher-than-average number of "dry-hole wells drilled" during the past two years.
Total continues to maintain a solid financial profile in line with its current ratings despite an increase in borrowings in the first half of 2009 which were utilised to maintain the company's cash neutral funding position in a lower oil price environment.
Profitability remains strong with LTM 2009 EBITDA of EUR21.1bn compared to EUR29.9bn in 2008. Cash flow generation is also encouraging with LTM cash flow from operations of EUR17.4bn compared to EUR18.7bn in 2008.
Fitch anticipates that Total will adhere to its publicly stated leverage targets, measured as net debt to equity, of 20 to 30% over the business cycle.
As of the second quarter of 2009, this ratio stood at 24.7% compared to 22.5% at year end 2008. Total also enjoys ample liquidity with USD8.966bn of confirmed credit facilities from a consortium of international banks, of which USD8.73bn was unused as of December 2008.
Fitch Affirms Total S.A. at 'AA'; Outlook Stable
17 Aug 2009 10:36 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-17 August 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Total S.A.'s (Total) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'AA' respectively. Fitch has also affirmed Total's Short-term IDR at 'F1+'. Total Capital's senior unsecured issues, which are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Total, are affirmed at 'AA', Total Capital is a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of Total. The Outlook for all ratings is Stable.
The Stable Outlook for Total's ratings reflects Fitch's expectations that the company will continue to maintain its strong industry position and significant global market share as it works to complete key projects due to come on stream in 2009 and 2010.
The Outlook further reflects expectations that Total will continue to adhere to its conservative financial policy and maintain leverage and coverage ratios that are in line with the current ratings despite a recent increase in borrowings in 2009.
Total's high investment grade ratings reflect its significant production scale and well-diversified and vertically integrated profile which allow it to retain a dominant position in the global oil and gas industry. Its ratings are further supported by the company's growing position in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. As of 2008,
Fitch estimates Total to have about 8 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity and this is expected to rise to approximately 12-13 mtpa by 2014. Total also remains a relatively low cost producer, with three-year average upstream production costs per barrel of oil equivalent of approximately USD5.25 compared to over USD6.0 for BP ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable) and more than USD10 for Royal Dutch Shell ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable).
Total's strong business profile is somewhat offset by a geographic production profile that is increasingly focused on emerging market countries, particularly in Africa, which has overtaken Europe as the largest production region for the group. Fitch sees this alteration in geographic focus as increasing the risk for Total's production and reserve profile.
Additionally, the company faces exploration and development challenges in North America due to a higher-than-average number of "dry-hole wells drilled" during the past two years.
Total continues to maintain a solid financial profile in line with its current ratings despite an increase in borrowings in the first half of 2009 which were utilised to maintain the company's cash neutral funding position in a lower oil price environment.
Profitability remains strong with LTM 2009 EBITDA of EUR21.1bn compared to EUR29.9bn in 2008. Cash flow generation is also encouraging with LTM cash flow from operations of EUR17.4bn compared to EUR18.7bn in 2008.
Fitch anticipates that Total will adhere to its publicly stated leverage targets, measured as net debt to equity, of 20 to 30% over the business cycle.
As of the second quarter of 2009, this ratio stood at 24.7% compared to 22.5% at year end 2008. Total also enjoys ample liquidity with USD8.966bn of confirmed credit facilities from a consortium of international banks, of which USD8.73bn was unused as of December 2008.
Imark
Forumer storico
Approfitto di questi report brevi di Fitch per fare il punto sulla situazione di BP... anche qui un quadro generale molto solido: bassi livelli di indebitamento, forte capacità di generazione di cassa, fortissima posizione di liquidità disponibile per il profilo finanziario ed una posizione altrettanto solida per il profilo di business...
Fitch Affirms BP plc at 'AA+'; Outlook Stable
17 Aug 2009 12:43 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-17 August 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed BP plc's (BP) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'AA+' respectively. Fitch has affirmed BP's Short-term IDR at 'F1+'. The ratings of BP Capital Markets plc's senior unsecured issues, which are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by BP, are affirmed at 'AA+', BP Capital Markets is BP's wholly-owned indirect subsidiary. The Outlook for all the ratings is Stable.
The Stable Outlook on BP's ratings reflects Fitch's anticipation that the company will further drive deflation into the upstream cost base in 2009 beyond the USD2.0bn already achieved in the first half of 2009 and implement its downstream turnaround strategy at Whiting and Texas City.
The Stable Outlook also reflects Fitch's anticipation that BP will continue to adhere to its conservative financial policy by maintaining a net debt to net debt plus equity ratio in the company's stated target range despite a recent increase in borrowings in 2009.
BP's high investment grade ratings are supported by its diversified production platform combined with a proven reserve base that is larger than other European peers, which allows it to retain a dominant position in the global oil and gas industry.
Additionally, BP is a dominant producer in the Gulf of Mexico, which Fitch views as one of three important production regions in the world. Its ratings are further supported by the company's established position in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. As of 2008, Fitch estimates BP to have about 11 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity and this is expected to rise to approximately 15 mtpa by 2014.
BP also benefits from competitive finding and development costs, a declining rate of production over the past three years that is less severe than peers, low exposure to high cost upstream assets and consistently superior realized refining margins.
BP's strong credit profile is challenged somewhat by the cost of replacing declining production in some of the company's historically low cost core upstream areas such as North American Onshore and the North Sea in addition to challenges in its downstream Iberian refining configuration and US Midwest feedstock cost position.
Additionally, BP has weaker profitability compared to peers with a three year average EBITDAX to equivalent barrel of oil production of USD43.5 compared to over USD60 for Total S.A. ('AA'/'F1+'/Stable), ENI SpA ('AA-'/'F1+'/Stable) and Royal Dutch Shell ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable) respectively.
BP's Q209 profitability was in line with expectations given the decline in global oil prices with LTM 2009 EBITDA of USD27.7bn compared to USD42.2bn in 2008. Cash flow generation remains encouraging, with LTM cash flow from operations of USD32.8bn compared to USD38.1bn in 2008 mainly due to narrowing inventory holding losses.
Fitch anticipates BP will adhere to its publicly stated leverage targets, measured as net debt to net debt plus equity, of 20 to 30% over the business cycle. As of Q209, this ratio stood at 22% compared to 21% at year end 2008.
BP continues to benefit from ample liquidity with USD4.7bn of undrawn committed credit facilities maturing in 2011, a USD20bn European debt issuance program (USD9.7bn available), and a USD10bn US shelf registration program (USD3.5b available) as of December 2008.
Fitch Affirms BP plc at 'AA+'; Outlook Stable
17 Aug 2009 12:43 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-17 August 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed BP plc's (BP) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'AA+' respectively. Fitch has affirmed BP's Short-term IDR at 'F1+'. The ratings of BP Capital Markets plc's senior unsecured issues, which are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by BP, are affirmed at 'AA+', BP Capital Markets is BP's wholly-owned indirect subsidiary. The Outlook for all the ratings is Stable.
The Stable Outlook on BP's ratings reflects Fitch's anticipation that the company will further drive deflation into the upstream cost base in 2009 beyond the USD2.0bn already achieved in the first half of 2009 and implement its downstream turnaround strategy at Whiting and Texas City.
The Stable Outlook also reflects Fitch's anticipation that BP will continue to adhere to its conservative financial policy by maintaining a net debt to net debt plus equity ratio in the company's stated target range despite a recent increase in borrowings in 2009.
BP's high investment grade ratings are supported by its diversified production platform combined with a proven reserve base that is larger than other European peers, which allows it to retain a dominant position in the global oil and gas industry.
Additionally, BP is a dominant producer in the Gulf of Mexico, which Fitch views as one of three important production regions in the world. Its ratings are further supported by the company's established position in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. As of 2008, Fitch estimates BP to have about 11 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity and this is expected to rise to approximately 15 mtpa by 2014.
BP also benefits from competitive finding and development costs, a declining rate of production over the past three years that is less severe than peers, low exposure to high cost upstream assets and consistently superior realized refining margins.
BP's strong credit profile is challenged somewhat by the cost of replacing declining production in some of the company's historically low cost core upstream areas such as North American Onshore and the North Sea in addition to challenges in its downstream Iberian refining configuration and US Midwest feedstock cost position.
Additionally, BP has weaker profitability compared to peers with a three year average EBITDAX to equivalent barrel of oil production of USD43.5 compared to over USD60 for Total S.A. ('AA'/'F1+'/Stable), ENI SpA ('AA-'/'F1+'/Stable) and Royal Dutch Shell ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable) respectively.
BP's Q209 profitability was in line with expectations given the decline in global oil prices with LTM 2009 EBITDA of USD27.7bn compared to USD42.2bn in 2008. Cash flow generation remains encouraging, with LTM cash flow from operations of USD32.8bn compared to USD38.1bn in 2008 mainly due to narrowing inventory holding losses.
Fitch anticipates BP will adhere to its publicly stated leverage targets, measured as net debt to net debt plus equity, of 20 to 30% over the business cycle. As of Q209, this ratio stood at 22% compared to 21% at year end 2008.
BP continues to benefit from ample liquidity with USD4.7bn of undrawn committed credit facilities maturing in 2011, a USD20bn European debt issuance program (USD9.7bn available), and a USD10bn US shelf registration program (USD3.5b available) as of December 2008.
Imark
Forumer storico
Shell, stessa zuppa... anche qui molti punti di forza, e quelli di debolezza sono assai relativi, ad oggi.
Fitch Affirms Royal Dutch Shell's IDR at 'AA+'; Outlook Stable
17 Aug 2009 12:49 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-17 August 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Royal Dutch Shell plc's and Royal Dutch/Shell Group's ratings at Long-term Issuer Default (IDR) 'AA+' with Stable Outlook and Short-term IDR 'F1+'. The senior unsecured debt issued by Royal Dutch Shell plc's wholly-owned indirect subsidiary, Shell International Finance, which is fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Royal Dutch Shell plc, is also affirmed at 'AA+'.
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's anticipation that Royal Dutch Shell will maintain its strong upstream market share, especially in liquefied natural gas (LNG) where the company has recently started production at two key projects in Russia and Brazil.
The Stable Outlook also anticipates that Shell will reduce supply chain costs in the upstream portfolio and reposition its downstream activities through the divestiture or conversion of some downstream assets to improve performance through the business cycle. Fitch further anticipates that the company will continue to adhere to its conservative financial policy by maintaining a low leverage ratio that is in line with its current ratings despite management's demonstrated increase of borrowings in 2009.
Royal Dutch Shell's high investment-grade ratings reflect its diversified and well- balanced business model. The ratings are further supported by the company's dominant position in the global LNG market. Fitch estimates that as of end-2008 Royal Dutch Shell had about 16 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity and this is expected to rise to approximately 22 mtpa by 2014.
Royal Dutch Shell also significantly outperforms its peers in terms of reserve replacement, with a three-year average organic replacement ratio of 112% compared to 65% for BP ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable) and 69% for Total ('AA'/ 'F1+'/Stable), excluding equity affiliates. Shell also has lower costs than its peers in organic upstream exploration and development on a barrel-of-oil-equivalent basis.
Royal Dutch Shell's solid business profile is offset somewhat by a relatively small proved reserve base, excluding equity affiliates, relative to its peers. Additionally, the company faces difficulties stabilizing declines in upstream production. For example, over the past three years, Shell's upstream oil and gas production combined, excluding equity affiliates, has fallen by nearly 14% compared to 11% for Total and 6% for BP.
Royal Dutch Shell continues to maintain a solid financial profile in line with its current ratings. Profitability remains relatively strong with LTM 2009 EBITDA of USD47.2bn compared to USD57.3bn in 2008. Cash flow generation is also adequate with LTM cash flow from operations of USD30.9bn compared to USD44bn in 2008.
Fitch anticipates that Royal Dutch Shell will hold organic spending levels steady in 2009 but foresees the leverage ratio, measured as net debt/net debt plus equity, rising to around 20% by year end in line with management guidance. As of Q209, this ratio stood at 12.6% compared to approximately 6% at end-2008.
Fitch further anticipates that Royal Dutch Shell will continue to benefit from its ample liquidity with two registered commercial paper programmes for USD10bn each, a USD25bn EMTN programme, and an unlimited US shelf registration programme with an ability to issue debt with a 30-year maturity.
Fitch Affirms Royal Dutch Shell's IDR at 'AA+'; Outlook Stable
17 Aug 2009 12:49 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-17 August 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Royal Dutch Shell plc's and Royal Dutch/Shell Group's ratings at Long-term Issuer Default (IDR) 'AA+' with Stable Outlook and Short-term IDR 'F1+'. The senior unsecured debt issued by Royal Dutch Shell plc's wholly-owned indirect subsidiary, Shell International Finance, which is fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Royal Dutch Shell plc, is also affirmed at 'AA+'.
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's anticipation that Royal Dutch Shell will maintain its strong upstream market share, especially in liquefied natural gas (LNG) where the company has recently started production at two key projects in Russia and Brazil.
The Stable Outlook also anticipates that Shell will reduce supply chain costs in the upstream portfolio and reposition its downstream activities through the divestiture or conversion of some downstream assets to improve performance through the business cycle. Fitch further anticipates that the company will continue to adhere to its conservative financial policy by maintaining a low leverage ratio that is in line with its current ratings despite management's demonstrated increase of borrowings in 2009.
Royal Dutch Shell's high investment-grade ratings reflect its diversified and well- balanced business model. The ratings are further supported by the company's dominant position in the global LNG market. Fitch estimates that as of end-2008 Royal Dutch Shell had about 16 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity and this is expected to rise to approximately 22 mtpa by 2014.
Royal Dutch Shell also significantly outperforms its peers in terms of reserve replacement, with a three-year average organic replacement ratio of 112% compared to 65% for BP ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable) and 69% for Total ('AA'/ 'F1+'/Stable), excluding equity affiliates. Shell also has lower costs than its peers in organic upstream exploration and development on a barrel-of-oil-equivalent basis.
Royal Dutch Shell's solid business profile is offset somewhat by a relatively small proved reserve base, excluding equity affiliates, relative to its peers. Additionally, the company faces difficulties stabilizing declines in upstream production. For example, over the past three years, Shell's upstream oil and gas production combined, excluding equity affiliates, has fallen by nearly 14% compared to 11% for Total and 6% for BP.
Royal Dutch Shell continues to maintain a solid financial profile in line with its current ratings. Profitability remains relatively strong with LTM 2009 EBITDA of USD47.2bn compared to USD57.3bn in 2008. Cash flow generation is also adequate with LTM cash flow from operations of USD30.9bn compared to USD44bn in 2008.
Fitch anticipates that Royal Dutch Shell will hold organic spending levels steady in 2009 but foresees the leverage ratio, measured as net debt/net debt plus equity, rising to around 20% by year end in line with management guidance. As of Q209, this ratio stood at 12.6% compared to approximately 6% at end-2008.
Fitch further anticipates that Royal Dutch Shell will continue to benefit from its ample liquidity with two registered commercial paper programmes for USD10bn each, a USD25bn EMTN programme, and an unlimited US shelf registration programme with an ability to issue debt with a 30-year maturity.
Imark
Forumer storico
E dato che Fitch si è impegnata in una disamina del comparto che si estende anche ai produttori dei paesei emergenti, quelli che di voi avranno titoli Gazprom, Pemex, Petrobras, Petronas, PVDSA (per gli ultimi 3, sempre in USD) hanno la possibilità di dare un'occhiata.
Un problema comune ad alcune di queste società è l'avere varato progetti di investimento ambiziosi quando i prezzi dell'oil erano più alti degli attuali ed il trovarsi in difficoltà oggi. Per molti, Fitch assume tagli nel capex per fronteggiare la mutata situazione, oltre che il ricorso al mercato obbligazionario per reperire risorse ulteriori.
Ad ogni buon conto, l'ipotesi di fondo di Fitch è che nel breve termine il carattere strategico di queste società fa sì che le loro eventuali difficoltà di finanziamento (dovute a progetti di investimento impegnativi, con prezzi del petrolio in calo) siano risolte dagli Stati nazionali ove possibile, anche attraverso il rifinanziamento del debito da parte di banche statali (come ad es. in Russia), o piuttosto siano risolte dalla Cina, che sta massicciamente intervenendo ad offrire sostegno finanziario alle compagnie petrolifere dei paesi emergenti a fronte del diritto a ricevere in cambio quantitativi prefissati di oil (che saranno pagati a prezzo di mercato) negli anni a venire.
Per Fitch, nel breve termine il rating di molte di queste società sarà legato all'andamento del rating degli stati che le controllano e dunque dipenderà dal profilo di affidabilità creditizia che essi sapranno conservare nel corso della crisi.
La press release ed il report completo, per chi gradisse... decisamente utili le tabelle che raffrontano la situazione dei diversi players.
Fitch: Credit Quality of Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Sector Correlated to Sovereign's Performance
17 Aug 2009 2:09 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-New York-17 August 2009: In a special report issued today, Fitch Ratings reports that national oil companies (NOC) in the emerging markets (EM) oil and gas industry are experiencing a significant decline in cash flow generation driven mainly by a lower price environment at the time they need to fund aggressive capital investment plans during a tight credit market and constrained government budgets.
Fitch anticipates most negative rating actions for the EM oil and gas companies in 2009 to be triggered by sovereign downgrades, since one of the key risks for the stability of their ratings is the impact of the global recession on the EM sovereigns.
'Emerging markets oil and gas companies' credit quality is closely correlated with those of the sovereigns and how these countries have been impacted by the global economic downturn is very indicative of how an oil and gas company will perform,' said Jose Luis Villanueva, Director at Fitch Ratings. 'Governments often control the operations of the oil and gas companies, dictate the energy policies that regulate them, and set national price policies. National oil companies generate significant revenues for sovereigns and hard currency that helps to balance external accounts.'
Fitch expects NOCs to limit the deterioration in their credit metrics by revising down capex budgets and to access alternative sources of financing to meet liquidity needs.
These include funds from China, government banks, and international oil companies (IOCs). NOCs in EM have already secured about USD45 billion from China in return for access to their hydrocarbons. Government banks in Brazil and Russia have committed to funding a significant portion of their respective NOCs refinancing needs. State-owned banks and China are expected to fund approximately USD60 billion to sector companies rated by Fitch, representing 55% of their USD108 billion funding needs in 2009.
For more details on key rating drivers, capex trends, sources of financing in 2009, operating and financial metrics for NOCs in Brazil, China, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Thailand and Venezuela, please see the special report titled 'Emerging Markets Oil and Gas: State-Owned Banks and China Step Up to Fund Sector,' available on the Fitch Ratings web site, under 'Corporates' at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
Un problema comune ad alcune di queste società è l'avere varato progetti di investimento ambiziosi quando i prezzi dell'oil erano più alti degli attuali ed il trovarsi in difficoltà oggi. Per molti, Fitch assume tagli nel capex per fronteggiare la mutata situazione, oltre che il ricorso al mercato obbligazionario per reperire risorse ulteriori.
Ad ogni buon conto, l'ipotesi di fondo di Fitch è che nel breve termine il carattere strategico di queste società fa sì che le loro eventuali difficoltà di finanziamento (dovute a progetti di investimento impegnativi, con prezzi del petrolio in calo) siano risolte dagli Stati nazionali ove possibile, anche attraverso il rifinanziamento del debito da parte di banche statali (come ad es. in Russia), o piuttosto siano risolte dalla Cina, che sta massicciamente intervenendo ad offrire sostegno finanziario alle compagnie petrolifere dei paesi emergenti a fronte del diritto a ricevere in cambio quantitativi prefissati di oil (che saranno pagati a prezzo di mercato) negli anni a venire.
Per Fitch, nel breve termine il rating di molte di queste società sarà legato all'andamento del rating degli stati che le controllano e dunque dipenderà dal profilo di affidabilità creditizia che essi sapranno conservare nel corso della crisi.
La press release ed il report completo, per chi gradisse... decisamente utili le tabelle che raffrontano la situazione dei diversi players.
Fitch: Credit Quality of Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Sector Correlated to Sovereign's Performance
17 Aug 2009 2:09 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-New York-17 August 2009: In a special report issued today, Fitch Ratings reports that national oil companies (NOC) in the emerging markets (EM) oil and gas industry are experiencing a significant decline in cash flow generation driven mainly by a lower price environment at the time they need to fund aggressive capital investment plans during a tight credit market and constrained government budgets.
Fitch anticipates most negative rating actions for the EM oil and gas companies in 2009 to be triggered by sovereign downgrades, since one of the key risks for the stability of their ratings is the impact of the global recession on the EM sovereigns.
'Emerging markets oil and gas companies' credit quality is closely correlated with those of the sovereigns and how these countries have been impacted by the global economic downturn is very indicative of how an oil and gas company will perform,' said Jose Luis Villanueva, Director at Fitch Ratings. 'Governments often control the operations of the oil and gas companies, dictate the energy policies that regulate them, and set national price policies. National oil companies generate significant revenues for sovereigns and hard currency that helps to balance external accounts.'
Fitch expects NOCs to limit the deterioration in their credit metrics by revising down capex budgets and to access alternative sources of financing to meet liquidity needs.
These include funds from China, government banks, and international oil companies (IOCs). NOCs in EM have already secured about USD45 billion from China in return for access to their hydrocarbons. Government banks in Brazil and Russia have committed to funding a significant portion of their respective NOCs refinancing needs. State-owned banks and China are expected to fund approximately USD60 billion to sector companies rated by Fitch, representing 55% of their USD108 billion funding needs in 2009.
For more details on key rating drivers, capex trends, sources of financing in 2009, operating and financial metrics for NOCs in Brazil, China, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Thailand and Venezuela, please see the special report titled 'Emerging Markets Oil and Gas: State-Owned Banks and China Step Up to Fund Sector,' available on the Fitch Ratings web site, under 'Corporates' at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
samantaao
Forumer storico
grazie pmpm!
1
se in tutti i rendimenti trovi #NUM e le formule sono corrette significa che devi installare i componenti aggiuntivi, non serve il cd, è sufficiente fare:
in alto apri il menù a tendina "strumenti"
clicca su "componenti aggiuntivi"
spunta "strumenti di analisi"
clicca OK
...ora dovrebbe funzionare
2
mi sono attenuto al format std che viene utilizzato sul forum... magari Mark&Co appoggeranno l'idea... vediamo