Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti Obbligazioni UCRAINA (3 lettori)

[lorenzo63]

Fitch Takes Rating Actions on Ukrainian Corporates

Fitch Ratings-London/Moscow-13 November 2009: Fitch Ratings has today taken various rating actions on the following Ukrainian corporates following the agency's downgrade of Ukraine's sovereign rating to 'B-' from 'B' on 12 November. The sovereign Outlook is Negative.
The affected Ukrainian companies and rating actions are as follows:

DTEK Holding Limited
Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR): downgraded to 'B-' from 'B'; Outlook Negative (The rating is constrained by Ukraine's Country Ceiling of 'B-'.)
Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Long-term local currency IDR: downgraded to 'B' from 'B+'; Outlook Negative
Short-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'B'
National Long-term rating: affirmed at 'AA+(ukr)'; Outlook Stable
National senior unsecured rating: affirmed at 'AA+(ukr)'; Recovery Rating of 'RR4' withdrawn

Metinvest B.V.
Long-term foreign currency IDR: downgraded to 'B-'from 'B'; Outlook Negative (The rating is constrained by Ukraine's Country Ceiling of 'B-'.)
Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Long-term local currency IDR: downgraded to 'B' from 'B+'; Outlook Negative
Short-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'B'
National Long-term rating: upgraded to 'AA+(ukr)' from 'AA-(ukr)'; Outlook Stable (This rating action follows a recalibration of the National Scale.)
National Short-term rating: upgraded to 'F1+(ukr)' from 'F1(ukr)'; (This rating action follows a recalibration of the National Scale.)

PJSC Azovstal Iron and Steel Works
Long-term foreign currency IDR: downgraded to 'B-' from 'B'; Outlook Negative (The Outlook is aligned with Ukraine's sovereign rating Outlook.)
Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Long-term local currency IDR: downgraded to 'B-' from 'B'; Outlook Negative
Short-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Senior unsecured foreign currency rating: downgraded to 'B-' from 'B'; Recovery Rating 'RR4'
National Long-term rating: upgraded to 'AA-(ukr)' from 'A+(ukr)'; Outlook Stable

MHP S.A.
Long-term foreign currency IDR: downgraded to 'B-' from 'B'; Outlook Negative. (This rating is constrained by Ukraine's Country Ceiling of 'B-'.)
Long-term local currency IDR: 'B'; placed on Rating Watch Negative (RWN)
Senior unsecured foreign currency rating: downgraded to 'B-' from 'B'; Recovery Rating of 'RR4'

OJSC Myronivsky Hliboproduct
Long-term foreign currency IDR: downgraded to 'B-' from 'B'; Outlook Negative. (This rating is constrained by Ukraine's Country Ceiling of 'B-'.)
Long-term local currency IDR: 'B'; placed on RWN
National Long-term rating: 'A-(ukr)'; placed on Rating Watch Evolving (RWE)

OJSC Concern Stirol
Long-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'B-'; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable (The Outlook has been aligned with Ukraine's sovereign rating outlook.)
Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'B'

NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine
Long-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'CCC'; Outlook Negative
Long-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'CCC'; Outlook Negative
Sovereign-guaranteed foreign currency bond rating: downgraded to 'B-' from 'B'; Recovery Rating 'RR4' (The rating has been aligned with Ukraine's sovereign rating.)

Ukrainian companies whose ratings are not affected by the sovereign downgrade are listed below. These companies are not constrained by Ukraine's Country Ceiling. Company-specific factors and concerns have been factored into their respective current ratings.

Interpipe Limited
Long-term foreign currency IDR: 'CCC'; RWN
Short-term foreign currency IDR: 'C'; RWN
Senior unsecured: 'CCC'; RWN; 'RR4'

TMM Real Estate Developments plc
Long-term foreign currency IDR: 'CC'; RWN
Long-term local currency IDR: 'CC; RWN

 

[Imark]

Kyiv Post. Independence. Community. Trust - Nation - Ukraine IMF deal off-track as leader signs wages bill
Il presidente Yushenko ha controfirmato la delibera parlamentare che aumenta del 20% il salario minimo, mettendo a rischio l'accordo con il FMI.
Standard and Poor ha rivisto l'outlook da positivo a stabile. Pare che l'aumento del salario minimo costera' 10 miliardi di $ l'anno (non ho capito se all'economia nel suo complesso o se al solo bilancio pubblico).
Finalmente in flessione gli eurobond sovrani Ucraina (effamolo 'sto default )

Non so se ce la faranno, ma le intenzioni di defaultare mi sembrano serie, a cominciare dal catafottersene del FMI...

Del risanamento dei conti pubblici se ne riparla dopo le prossime elezioni presidenzali...

Fitch, convinto della bontà delle intenzioni ucraine, postula che metteranno una pezza al blocco della trance del prestito FMI stampando un po' di carta moneta ...

E poi, vogliono senz'altro pagare il debito estero gli ucraini, se qualcuno gli presta i soldi che gli occorrono per farlo...

Scherzi a parte, i soldi (per ora) ci sono: Fitch attesta la presenza di ben 28 mld di $ in valuta estera nelle casse pubbliche.

Fitch Downgrades Ukraine to 'B-'; Outlook Negative

12 Nov 2009 8:00 AM (EST) Fitch Ratings-London-12 November 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded Ukraine's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B-' from 'B'. The Outlooks are Negative. At the same time it downgraded the Country Ceiling to 'B-' from 'B' and affirmed the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'B'.

"The recent adoption by parliament of an unaffordable minimum wage and pension law which, according to the IMF, could add 7% of GDP to the budget deficit in 2010, has effectively forced Ukraine's IMF programme off-track and has materially increased risks to fiscal financing, macroeconomic stability and creditworthiness," said David Heslam, Director in Fitch's Sovereigns Group.

Over the past two weeks, Ukraine's parliament has passed a new law increasing the minimum wage and pensions, and President Viktor Yushchenko has declined the IMF's call to veto it. Moreover, the government has submitted to parliament a draft 2010 budget with a deficit of 8% of GDP. This compares with a commitment in the IMF programme of 4% (including the operational deficit of state-owned energy company Naftogaz NJSC (rated 'CCC' / Negative Outlook).

In addition, the government has effectively abandoned the policy commitment to hike retail gas tariffs made at the time of the second IMF review in July 2009; as a result Fitch projects the 2009 deficit could reach around 8.5% of GDP (11% including Naftogaz), compared with a target of 6% of GDP (8.6% including Naftogaz).

On 7 November, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the Executive Director of the IMF, said the IMF programme would be suspended, barring a reversal in such policies by the Ukrainian authorities, until after the presidential elections in January. A meeting on Tuesday between senior policy-makers in the government, National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and presidential administration does not appear to have reached such an agreement.

Although a reversal cannot be excluded - Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said yesterday she hoped the courts would challenge the bill - it is not the base case. Furthermore, political dynamics mean the hiatus in IMF lending could be prolonged, particularly if there were a second round of presidential elections in February, possibly followed by parliamentary elections and then a delay in forming a new government.

The marked relaxation in the budget deficit and the loss of the main source of its funding, with the suspension of the USD4bn IMF tranche due for disbursement on 15 November has left Ukraine with a substantial fiscal financing gap. It would appear difficult and costly for Ukraine to cover the deficit through borrowing on the domestic or international market.

Therefore Fitch sees an elevated risk that Ukraine could resort more heavily to monetary financing (via NBU providing liquidity to banks), effectively printing money. This would in turn risk undermining fragile confidence in the currency and the banking system, and/or a rapid loss of foreign exchange reserves.

At the root of the problem is Ukraine's inconsistent macroeconomic policy framework, as the authorities are aiming to defend the exchange rate while avoiding necessary fiscal tightening in the absence of adequate sources of non-monetary financing.

Political dynamics mean policy may not be restored to a sustainable path before there is a further bout of financial instability. A further sharp depreciation in the hryvnia would intensify pressure on Ukraine's crisis-hit banking system. The non-performing loan ratio hit 30% at end-June 2009 according to the IMF, significantly affected by an 18% contraction in Q209 GDP (year-on-year) and by the hryvnia's near 60% depreciation since September 2008 (impacting the 54% of loans denominated in foreign currency).

Despite this challenging backdrop, Ukraine's creditworthiness is supported by its low sovereign debt repayment profile.

It repaid maturing sovereign eurobonds worth USD1.2bn in August and September 2009, demonstrating a willingness to pay.

It now has a pause in eurobond maturities until a yen-denominated bond worth about USD0.4bn falls due in December 2010 and a USD0.6bn bond due in March 2011. Gross foreign exchange reserves are USD28bn. The improving global outlook will provide some support to Ukraine's export industries. So far, rollover rates on private-sector external debt have been relatively high at over 80%.

 

[lorenzo63]

Qualcuno ha una idea della esposizione delle banche italiane e/o UE in Ukraina...?

 

[serendipity]

Banche europee in Ucraina

Unicredit è presente in Ucraina sotto l'insegna di Unicredit Group e della controllata Ukrsotsbank con 2 milioni di clienti e 530 filiali complessive.
L'austriaca Erste bank è presente con circa 135 filiali.
L'austriaca Rzb Raiffeisein Bank.
Credit Lyonnays

 

[serendipity]

Unicredit in Ucraina

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Kiev, 20 ott - Ukrsotsbank, controllata di UniCredit in Ucraina, non avra' problemi a rimborsare l'Eurobond da 500 milioni di dollari in scadenza nel febbraio 2010 e prevede di chiudere l'esercizio 2009 in utile. Lo ha affermato il ceo, Borys Tymonkin, al quotidiano ucraino 'Delo', spiegando che la banca, la sesta in Ucraina su un totale di 180 istituti attivi nella regione, non ha bisogno di un riscadenziamento del debito. Ukrsotsbank chiudera' il 2009 con un utile netto di 100-150 milioni di grivny (8,2-12,2 milioni di euro circa), in netto calo dai 782 milioni del 2008, ma il fatto che si tratti di un risultato positivo "e' molto importante", dice Tymonkin. I prestiti in sofferenza ammontano al 18% degli impieghi, ma per tre quarti sono coperti da forti garanzie, ha detto Tymonkin, e il apitale (5,2 miliardi di grivny) "e' sufficiente". Red-Mir- (RADIOCOR) 20-10-09 12:28:34 (0141) 5 NNNN

 

[serendipity]

Rating Fitch Ukrsotsbank

As of 01.10.2009

FITCH RATINGS

Rating Outlook negative
Foreign Currency Long-Term IDR B
Foreign Currency Short-Term IDR B
National Currency Long-Term IDR B+
Individual Rating E
Support Rating 4

MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE

Rating Outlook stable
Bank Deposits in Foreign Currency B3
Bank Deposits in National Currency Ba1
Bank Financial Strength D
Senior Unsecured in Foreign Currency B1
Senior Unsecured in National Currency Ba1
National Scale Aa1

 

[lorenzo63]

Si teme per default Ucraina, occhio a Unicredit..

Il Costo di protezione contro il rischio di default (Cds) sul debito sovrano dell'Ucraina per l'orizzonte di cinque anni è salito a 32% da 29% la scorsa settimana e da 21% lo scorso mese, secondo i dati di Phoenix partner group. Sui mercati oggi è salita la tensione riguardo a un possibile defualt del Paese, anche se i dealer dicono che non ci sono fatti nuovi di rilievo.

Settimana scorsa la società statale ucraina che gestisce le ferrovie ha detto di essere impegnata nella ristrutturazione di un prestito sindacato da 550 milioni di dollari organizzato da Barclays, dopo aver mancato il rimborso di una parte del finanziamento.

Da allora investitori e analisti stanno esaminando le implicazioni della ristrutturazione del debito delle ferrovie sulla posizione di bilancio dello Stato. L'agenzia di rating Fitch ha appena dichiarato di non avere alcuna notizia riguardo a un possibile default dello Stato.

L'Ucraina pesa per poco più dell'1% dei ricavi di Unicredit, che conta due controllate: Unicredit BankUcraine e Jsc Ukrsotsbank. Ora l'azione è ferma sulla parità in Borsa a 2,365 euro, mentre le altre banche viaggiano in rosso. Unicredit è attiva anche in Ungheria e oggi l'istituto, insieme ad altre cinque banche tra cui Intesa Sanpaolo, ha confermato, in una riunione con Fmi e Commissione Ue, il suo impegno a sostegno delle sue filiali presenti nel Paese.

"Le case madri si sono comportate come proprietari responsabili, aumentando le loro esposizioni durante l'anno e mantenendo sufficiente capitale nelle filiali; il rapporto del capitale del sistema bancario era del 13% lo scorso settembre", recita la nota del Fmi.

Entro le prossime settimane le sei banche presenteranno specifiche lettere bilaterali circa questo loro impegno. Tale garanzia comprende il mantenimento di un rapporto di adeguatezza del capitale e dell'esposizione almeno del 95% del livello del settembre 2008 per la durata del programma di finanziamento dell'Ungheria sponsorizzato da Fmi e Ue

 

[magallo]

ciao Gaudente
nessuna novità dall'Ucraina?

 

[magallo]

Moody's: Ukraine's rating unchanged after $ 550 million Ukrzaliznytsia loan default

Today at 11:35 | Ukrainian News
Moody's Investors Service today stated that last week's default by an unrated state-owned company is consistent with the agency's B2 (negative outlook) sovereign credit rating for the government of Ukraine.

The company, Ukraine Rail (Ukrzaliznytsia), defaulted on a principal payment on a Barclays Capital-led syndicated loan on 20 November 2009, and Moody's is responding to questions that were raised about the possible impact on the sovereign's own rating.

The organizer of the loan was the Barclays Capital Bank, Britain.

Moody's noted that Ukrzaliznytsia is current on payments for the Deutsche Bank loan.

The government of Ukraine itself has no major debt payments until March 2010 and a very light foreign currency debt payment schedule for 2010 in comparison to available foreign currency reserves.

As Ukrainian News earlier reported, in early November, Ukrzaliznytsia state rail transport administration started negotiations with creditors on restructuring repayment of a syndicated loan of USD 550 million.

In July 2007, Ukrzaliznytsia took a syndicated loan of USD 550 million to complete construction of a bridge in Kyiv, renew rail infrastructure and buy rolling stock.

 

[Gaudente]

ciao Gaudente
nessuna novità dall'Ucraina?

ciao Magallo,
purtroppo ieri mi sono slogato una spalla e siccome le sfighe non vengono mai sole stamattina il mio modem e' defunto.
In questo momento sono in un internet point, ma non avendo i miei "preferiti" mi e' difficile fare la consueta carrellata per vedere le novita'.