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gastronomo
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Treasuries edge down as curve flattens further
Tue Jan 18, 2005 01:39 PM ET
(Adds comments, updates prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices edged lower on Tuesday as a lack of market-moving economic data left investors toying with profitable curve-flattening trades.
A string of Federal Reserve speakers offered few fresh insights into the central bank's view of the economy, leaving bonds to drift in subdued trade.
Policy-makers said what the market already knew: interest rates will continue to move higher at a measured pace as inflation remains well contained.
That left fidgety investors playing with curve flatteners -- bets that long-term debt would outperform shorter-dated paper in an environment of rising official interest rates.
As a result, the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was flat for a yield of 4.23 percent. In contrast, two-year notes were down 1/32, yielding 3.25 percent. The discrepancy helped shrink the gap between the two yields ever further, a new 3-1/2-year low of 98 basis points.
Bonds appeared to pay little notice to oil markets, where crude was once again flirting with the $49 a barrel mark.
"As crude approaches $50, bonds are ignoring it -- this is not smart," said Andrew Brenner, head of fixed-income at Investec U.S. "Higher oil acts as a tax and will slow down the economy."
Early in the session, bonds found some support from a dip in the New York Fed's regional manufacturing survey. The general business conditions index from the Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey slipped to 20.1 in January from a downwardly revised 27.1 in December, well below a consensus forecast of 27.0.
Most of the components in that index fell from December but economists said the numbers were not entirely discouraging for the economy.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 8/32 in price, with its yield down at 4.72 percent from 4.74 percent. Yields on the five year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose to 3.74 percent from 3.72 percent.
FED CHORUS
A series of speeches from policy officials shed little new light on the outlook for monetary policy, analysts said.
Philadelphia Fed President Anthony Santomero called on the Fed to continue to raise interest rates toward neutrality at a measured pace, much the same message as his peers.
For his part, the Minneapolis Fed's Gary Stern argued the U.S. economy was sound and inflation low. In a clear effort to distance himself from a warning contained in the central bank's December minutes, Stern added he did not believe financial markets were taking excessive risk.
Sandra Pianalto of the Cleveland Fed appeared a bit more concerned about inflation but saw fewer signs of a rise in labor costs sufficient to push overall prices higher.
Also out on Tuesday morning, a Treasury Department report on asset flows assuaged concerns about a potential slowdown in foreign central bank demand for U.S. government debt.
The survey showed net inflows of capital into U.S. assets surged to an unexpectedly high $81.0 billion in November. Net inflows of capital in November were the highest since $81.1 billion in June, rising from a revised $48.3 billion in October.
Tue Jan 18, 2005 01:39 PM ET
(Adds comments, updates prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices edged lower on Tuesday as a lack of market-moving economic data left investors toying with profitable curve-flattening trades.
A string of Federal Reserve speakers offered few fresh insights into the central bank's view of the economy, leaving bonds to drift in subdued trade.
Policy-makers said what the market already knew: interest rates will continue to move higher at a measured pace as inflation remains well contained.
That left fidgety investors playing with curve flatteners -- bets that long-term debt would outperform shorter-dated paper in an environment of rising official interest rates.
As a result, the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was flat for a yield of 4.23 percent. In contrast, two-year notes were down 1/32, yielding 3.25 percent. The discrepancy helped shrink the gap between the two yields ever further, a new 3-1/2-year low of 98 basis points.
Bonds appeared to pay little notice to oil markets, where crude was once again flirting with the $49 a barrel mark.
"As crude approaches $50, bonds are ignoring it -- this is not smart," said Andrew Brenner, head of fixed-income at Investec U.S. "Higher oil acts as a tax and will slow down the economy."
Early in the session, bonds found some support from a dip in the New York Fed's regional manufacturing survey. The general business conditions index from the Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey slipped to 20.1 in January from a downwardly revised 27.1 in December, well below a consensus forecast of 27.0.
Most of the components in that index fell from December but economists said the numbers were not entirely discouraging for the economy.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 8/32 in price, with its yield down at 4.72 percent from 4.74 percent. Yields on the five year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose to 3.74 percent from 3.72 percent.
FED CHORUS
A series of speeches from policy officials shed little new light on the outlook for monetary policy, analysts said.
Philadelphia Fed President Anthony Santomero called on the Fed to continue to raise interest rates toward neutrality at a measured pace, much the same message as his peers.
For his part, the Minneapolis Fed's Gary Stern argued the U.S. economy was sound and inflation low. In a clear effort to distance himself from a warning contained in the central bank's December minutes, Stern added he did not believe financial markets were taking excessive risk.
Sandra Pianalto of the Cleveland Fed appeared a bit more concerned about inflation but saw fewer signs of a rise in labor costs sufficient to push overall prices higher.
Also out on Tuesday morning, a Treasury Department report on asset flows assuaged concerns about a potential slowdown in foreign central bank demand for U.S. government debt.
The survey showed net inflows of capital into U.S. assets surged to an unexpectedly high $81.0 billion in November. Net inflows of capital in November were the highest since $81.1 billion in June, rising from a revised $48.3 billion in October.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
UPDATE 1-Pianalto says 'prudent' to boost U.S. rates
Tue Jan 18, 2005 01:45 PM ET
(Adds details from Pianalto comments)
PITTSBURGH, Jan 18 (Reuters) - There are enough potential sources of price pressures in the U.S. economy that it only makes sense to keep raising interest rates from very low levels, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland said on Tuesday.
"Recognizing how difficult it is to know when policy is truly neutral, I think it is prudent to move the federal funds rate up to a position that gives me more confidence that monetary policy is no longer accommodative," Sandra Pianalto told the Association for Corporate Growth in Pittsburgh.
Though many people see little cause for alarm in current price statistics, "the momentum in the inflationary process has clearly shifted away from disinflation," Pianalto said, so that argued for higher rates sooner rather than later.
"I would prefer this strategy to finding out the hard way -- for example, through a deterioration in inflation expectations or in the inflation picture itself -- that we had maintained an overly accommodative stance for too long," she said.
The Fed's policysetting Federal Open Market Committee has raised its trendsetting federal funds rate five successive times by a quarter percentage point beginning last June to its current level of 2.25 percent.
Pianalto noted that futures markets estimate a 95 percent likelihood that the Fed will add a sixth incremental rate rise at the end of its scheduled Feb. 1-2 meeting and said nothing to discourage that expectation.
In fact, she said rate rises were inevitable.
"We know that as expansion lengthens, and rates of resource utilization tighten, the demand for credit tends to increase, which pushes real interest rates up," she said. "This is just a normal cyclical phenomenon."
But she added there was also pressure on market interest rates stemming from persistently huge U.S. budget deficits and also risks from abroad. Specifically, big inflows of foreign capital that have helped keep U.S. rates low, if reversed, would put upward pressure on U.S. interest rates in a situation of continued economic expansion, she warned.
Tue Jan 18, 2005 01:45 PM ET
(Adds details from Pianalto comments)
PITTSBURGH, Jan 18 (Reuters) - There are enough potential sources of price pressures in the U.S. economy that it only makes sense to keep raising interest rates from very low levels, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland said on Tuesday.
"Recognizing how difficult it is to know when policy is truly neutral, I think it is prudent to move the federal funds rate up to a position that gives me more confidence that monetary policy is no longer accommodative," Sandra Pianalto told the Association for Corporate Growth in Pittsburgh.
Though many people see little cause for alarm in current price statistics, "the momentum in the inflationary process has clearly shifted away from disinflation," Pianalto said, so that argued for higher rates sooner rather than later.
"I would prefer this strategy to finding out the hard way -- for example, through a deterioration in inflation expectations or in the inflation picture itself -- that we had maintained an overly accommodative stance for too long," she said.
The Fed's policysetting Federal Open Market Committee has raised its trendsetting federal funds rate five successive times by a quarter percentage point beginning last June to its current level of 2.25 percent.
Pianalto noted that futures markets estimate a 95 percent likelihood that the Fed will add a sixth incremental rate rise at the end of its scheduled Feb. 1-2 meeting and said nothing to discourage that expectation.
In fact, she said rate rises were inevitable.
"We know that as expansion lengthens, and rates of resource utilization tighten, the demand for credit tends to increase, which pushes real interest rates up," she said. "This is just a normal cyclical phenomenon."
But she added there was also pressure on market interest rates stemming from persistently huge U.S. budget deficits and also risks from abroad. Specifically, big inflows of foreign capital that have helped keep U.S. rates low, if reversed, would put upward pressure on U.S. interest rates in a situation of continued economic expansion, she warned.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
WRAPUP 2-Fed speakers air differences on rate policy
Tue Jan 18, 2005 02:20 PM ET
(Recasts with Pianalto comments; adds details)
By Ros Krasny
CHICAGO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Possible differences on Federal Reserve monetary policy emerged on Tuesday when two regional Fed presidents downplayed the risk of inflation while a third urged greater vigilance against rising prices.
In separate appearances, Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern and Anthony Santomero, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said interest rates still have room to rise but can most likely continue to do so at a measured pace as inflation stays low.
Sandra Pianalto, president of the Cleveland Fed, followed with a more hawkish view that seemed to favor a more aggressive approach toward inflation.
"It is prudent to move the federal funds rate up to a positive that gives me more confidence that monetary policy is no longer accommodative," Pianalto told a corporate meeting in Pittsburgh.
The central bank cannot underestimate the possibility of inflation creeping in, and pushing up rates sooner rather than later is better than "finding out the hard way," she said.
Fed speakers are out in force this week ahead of the FOMC policy meeting on Feb. 1-2.
Minutes from the December meeting, released on Jan. 4, said that "some" members thought the long period of low interest rates was creating "potentially excessive risk-taking in financial markets."
Those blunt words raised concern that the Fed might accelerate its monetary tightening.
Bond dealers are trying to assess whether the view is widely held on the FOMC or confined to a few members such as Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn and, based on Tuesday's comments, Pianalto.
Stern earlier told a financial planners group in Minneapolis that he was "not fully persuaded" that excessive risk-taking is occurring.
Santomero did not rule out potential for more aggressive rate policy but returned to the Fed's mantra that the pace of rate changes should be data-driven.
"If signs of price pressure emerge on a consistent basis we will need to consider quickening the pace," he said in a speech to the Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce.
Santomero and Stern, but not Pianalto, are voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2005.
"The Fed is going to keep raising rates and still runs the risk of speeding up their rate hike efforts if the inflation news is bad," said Steve Gallagher, U.S. chief economist at SG Corporate & Investment Banking in New York.
STERN, SANTOMERO SEE GROWTH, LITTLE INFLATION RISK
Santomero and Stern suggested Fed policy could most likely stay on the track it has been on since June, when the fed funds rate was at a four-decade low of 1.0 percent and the FOMC started lifting rates by 25 percentage points at each meeting.
The comments had little impact on the bond market, where short-term rate futures already price in rate increases in February, March and most likely May, pushing the fed funds rate to 3.00 percent.
"If the economy evolves as I expect over the next year or so -- with continued output growth, steady increases in employment and reasonably low inflation -- then I expect we will continue to move the federal funds rate toward neutrality at a measured pace," Santomero said.
Stern termed the U.S. economy "fundamentally sound, fundamentally resilient," and said rates are "clearly not at a restrictive level."
U.S. real GDP growth was about 4 percent and 2005 could bring a similar performance, even given the drag created by high energy prices, Stern told the financial planners.
Santomero pegged GDP growth at 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent and employment growth at 150,000 to 200,000 a month.
Turning to the U.S. trade and current account gaps, Stern said the United States would get a boost if overseas economies grew more quickly.
Santomero said the lagged impact of the lower U.S. dollar should help stabilize the U.S. net export position in 2005. However, he warned that the falling dollar could lessen competitive pressures on domestic producers, adding to inflation.
Market interest rates could also be forced up by the large U.S. budget deficit and by the potential for big inflows of foreign capital into the United States to reverse, Pianalto said.
Later on Tuesday, Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed, discusses "technology and the labor markets" in Greensboro, North Carolina, at 3 p.m. EST (2000 GMT) and Fed Gov. Susan Bies will discuss the economy at 8 p.m. EST (01:00 GMT) in Baltimore. (Additional reporting by Andrea Ricci and Wayne Cole in New York, Andrea Hopkins and Glenn Somerville in Washington and Shawn Regan in Minneapolis)
Tue Jan 18, 2005 02:20 PM ET
(Recasts with Pianalto comments; adds details)
By Ros Krasny
CHICAGO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Possible differences on Federal Reserve monetary policy emerged on Tuesday when two regional Fed presidents downplayed the risk of inflation while a third urged greater vigilance against rising prices.
In separate appearances, Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern and Anthony Santomero, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said interest rates still have room to rise but can most likely continue to do so at a measured pace as inflation stays low.
Sandra Pianalto, president of the Cleveland Fed, followed with a more hawkish view that seemed to favor a more aggressive approach toward inflation.
"It is prudent to move the federal funds rate up to a positive that gives me more confidence that monetary policy is no longer accommodative," Pianalto told a corporate meeting in Pittsburgh.
The central bank cannot underestimate the possibility of inflation creeping in, and pushing up rates sooner rather than later is better than "finding out the hard way," she said.
Fed speakers are out in force this week ahead of the FOMC policy meeting on Feb. 1-2.
Minutes from the December meeting, released on Jan. 4, said that "some" members thought the long period of low interest rates was creating "potentially excessive risk-taking in financial markets."
Those blunt words raised concern that the Fed might accelerate its monetary tightening.
Bond dealers are trying to assess whether the view is widely held on the FOMC or confined to a few members such as Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn and, based on Tuesday's comments, Pianalto.
Stern earlier told a financial planners group in Minneapolis that he was "not fully persuaded" that excessive risk-taking is occurring.
Santomero did not rule out potential for more aggressive rate policy but returned to the Fed's mantra that the pace of rate changes should be data-driven.
"If signs of price pressure emerge on a consistent basis we will need to consider quickening the pace," he said in a speech to the Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce.
Santomero and Stern, but not Pianalto, are voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2005.
"The Fed is going to keep raising rates and still runs the risk of speeding up their rate hike efforts if the inflation news is bad," said Steve Gallagher, U.S. chief economist at SG Corporate & Investment Banking in New York.
STERN, SANTOMERO SEE GROWTH, LITTLE INFLATION RISK
Santomero and Stern suggested Fed policy could most likely stay on the track it has been on since June, when the fed funds rate was at a four-decade low of 1.0 percent and the FOMC started lifting rates by 25 percentage points at each meeting.
The comments had little impact on the bond market, where short-term rate futures already price in rate increases in February, March and most likely May, pushing the fed funds rate to 3.00 percent.
"If the economy evolves as I expect over the next year or so -- with continued output growth, steady increases in employment and reasonably low inflation -- then I expect we will continue to move the federal funds rate toward neutrality at a measured pace," Santomero said.
Stern termed the U.S. economy "fundamentally sound, fundamentally resilient," and said rates are "clearly not at a restrictive level."
U.S. real GDP growth was about 4 percent and 2005 could bring a similar performance, even given the drag created by high energy prices, Stern told the financial planners.
Santomero pegged GDP growth at 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent and employment growth at 150,000 to 200,000 a month.
Turning to the U.S. trade and current account gaps, Stern said the United States would get a boost if overseas economies grew more quickly.
Santomero said the lagged impact of the lower U.S. dollar should help stabilize the U.S. net export position in 2005. However, he warned that the falling dollar could lessen competitive pressures on domestic producers, adding to inflation.
Market interest rates could also be forced up by the large U.S. budget deficit and by the potential for big inflows of foreign capital into the United States to reverse, Pianalto said.
Later on Tuesday, Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed, discusses "technology and the labor markets" in Greensboro, North Carolina, at 3 p.m. EST (2000 GMT) and Fed Gov. Susan Bies will discuss the economy at 8 p.m. EST (01:00 GMT) in Baltimore. (Additional reporting by Andrea Ricci and Wayne Cole in New York, Andrea Hopkins and Glenn Somerville in Washington and Shawn Regan in Minneapolis)
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Buongiorno a tutti 
,
livelli sul bund per oggi
r3 120.54
r2 120.19
r1 120.05
pivot 119.84
s1 119.70
s2 119.49
s3 119.14
,livelli sul bund per oggi
r3 120.54
r2 120.19
r1 120.05
pivot 119.84
s1 119.70
s2 119.49
s3 119.14
dan24
Forumer storico
saltata con gap up la resistenza a 120.....se non è un gap up di esaurimento trend son c...azzi da pelare ....
il t-bond visto che ha chiuso vicino ai 114...se rompe si tira dietro il bund ancora di più ed allora i 121-122 non sono poi così una illusione....minkiaaaa che dolor
il t-bond visto che ha chiuso vicino ai 114...se rompe si tira dietro il bund ancora di più ed allora i 121-122 non sono poi così una illusione....minkiaaaa che dolor
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