15 Sep 08 15:30
Unlike commercial and retail banks, which can rely on steadier sources of money from customer deposits, these firms have to borrow the money they need to do business in private markets. When customers and trading partners lose confidence, it can amount to a death knell.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley, the two largest U.S. brokerage firms, have weathered the credit crisis better than Lehman, Merrill and Bear.
However, some experts questioned the brokerage-business model Monday, arguing that firms may be better off as part of a larger commercial bank with access to deposits.
"We are now worried about the fate of the investment-banking industry as three of the top five independent investment banks either collapsed or were forced to be taken over," said Larry Tabb, chief executive of consulting firm TABB Group.
"Without doubt, the investment-banking industry will never be the same," he added in a note to clients. "The days of the all-in-one global investment bank may be nearing an end."
The events of the past weekend are highly significant because they will shift the securities industry closer to commercial banks, said Steve Thel, a business law professor at Fordham University and a former lawyer for the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Morgan Stanley may seek to sell itself to a bank because the Bank of America acquisition of Merrill has created a tougher competitive environment, David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights, wrote in a note to investors.
"Goldman Sachs may be able to control its destiny more and seek to purchase its own bank if it needs to increase that funding base," Hendler added.
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