leggetela bene:
Oggetto: ----Quick comment on the leaks from the Eurosummit so far---
Equity Strategy
A quick comment on the leaks from the Eurosummit
This all so far unconfirmed so to be taken with a pinch of salt and
subject to re-interpretation once the full details emerge
11:16:47 DJ EURO-ZONE FINANCE MINISTER: TRICHET HAS ACCEPTED SELECTIVE
DEFAULT
Huge concession from Trichet who has been vehement that this should not
happen. Look as if ECB may accept Greece's paper in Repos despite
Selective Default status
13:20:16 DRAFT EU SUMMIT CONCLUSIONS SEE EXTENSION OF EFSF LOANS FROM 7.5
YEARS TO AT LEAST 15 YEARS -- DOCUMENT
Remember that the ESFS hasn't got exposure to Greece. Greece has been
funded by Euro nations +IMF so this extension is for Portugal and Ireland
13:10:15 COST OF RECAPITALISING GREEK BANKS ESTIMATED AT TOTAL OF 25 BLN
EUROS - DOCUMENT
Seems odd that the Greek banks need a short term recap if Trichet will
continue to accept their Greek bonds as funding collateral - maybe this is
intended as a first step towards returning them to market funding. Where
will the money come from though?
13:11:18 DRAFT EU SUMMIT CONCLUSIONS SEE RATE OF AROUND 3.5 PERCENT ON
NEW EFSF LOANS FOR GREECE - DOCUMENT
Helpful in avoiding the negative downward spiral on growth outlook for
Greece
13:11:31 DRAFT EU SUMMIT CONCLUSIONS: EFSF WILL BE ABLE TO INTERVENE ON A
PRECAUTIONARY BASIS
OK and a good idea, but the EFSF is not big enough to take on a support
action for Italy or Spain
All this is mildly positive and great for Greece. If they had done this 3
months ago maybe Italian 10yr would still be at 4.5%. However sorting
Greece out now is not going to put the totthpaste back in the tube.
Nice, of course for banks that they won't be a special levy. Headlines
elswhere are talking about medium duration bonds being 5-8 years being
swapped into 15 yr paper by the banks on a voluntary basis. No info on
terms or haircuts. Presumably it will be structured to avoid any
accounting writedown on banking book assets.