Analisi Intermarket ....quelli che.... Investire&tradare - Cap. 2

Allegati

  • tumblr_mhl9ls14Do1rx9i2xo1_1280.jpg
    tumblr_mhl9ls14Do1rx9i2xo1_1280.jpg
    181,8 KB · Visite: 73
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - New York, 13 feb - La
settimana scorsa le scorte di petrolio sono cresciute di
560.000 milioni di barili a 372,245 milioni, mentre gli
analisti attendevano un rialzo di 2,3 milioni di barili dopo
l'aumento di 2,62 milioni di unita' precedente. Secondo i
dati diffusi dal dipartimento all'Energia, gli stock di
benzina sono calati di 803.000 barili, a 233,236 milioni,
dopo la crescita di 1,74 milioni di barili dei sette giorni
precedenti e il calo di 90.000 unita' previsto. Le scorte di
distillati, che includono il combustibile da riscaldamento,
hanno segnato un calo di 3,677 milioni di barili a 125,904
milioni, mentre le stime erano per un calo di 900.000
unita', dopo il ribasso di 1,04 milioni di barili della
settimana precedente. L'utilizzo della capacita' degli
impianti si e' attestato all'83,8%, in ribasso rispetto
all'84,2% del dato precedente e meno dell'84,1% previsto.

A24-Red
 
EU and US announce trade deal talks -

EU and US announce trade deal talks

The EU plans to complete negotiations on a trade agreement with the US within two years, an ambitious timescale for a transatlantic project that boasts huge commercial potential but is also rife with complications.
The two sides issued a joint announcement on Wednesday that they would initiate negotiations hours after Barack Obama, the US president, touted a transatlantic trade agreement during his State of the Union address.
The idea for such a trade pact has been discussed for decades, although it never gained traction on both sides of the Atlantic simultaneously. What appears to have changed is that politicians in Washington and European capitals are now desperate to present voters with tangible plans to revive growth and create jobs – the central focus of Mr Obama’s address.
More
ON THIS STORY
Obama injects optimism into trade deal
The World US-EU trade announcement that never was
US doubts EU resolve on trade talks
Transatlantic trade talks near lift-off
EU renews call for US trade pact
ON THIS TOPIC
Brussels plans goods labelling move
India urges new push for EU trade talks
Horse contamination spreads to Europe
Fresh accusations in China dumping case
IN GLOBAL ECONOMY
Switzerland imposes capital buffer on banks
Q&A International tax loopholes
G7 fails to defuse currency tensions
Yao Yang US Asia pivot will provoke China
Speaking to reporters in Brussels, José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, described an agreement uniting two parties that account for nearly half of world economic output as “a game-changer”.
“Together, we will form the largest trade zone in the world,” Mr Barroso said, adding: “It is a boost to our economies that does not cost a cent of taxpayer money.”
In addition to the pure economic benefits, such an agreement could also help the two to retain their clout at a time when they are being eclipsed by China, India and other emerging economies. In particular, any technical and legal standards they adopt for intellectual property, for example, would stand a better chance of becoming the de facto global benchmark.
“If we are in a position to set standards together with the US, they have a chance of becoming global standards. And that is of foremost importance for our industries,” said Karel De Gucht, the EU trade commissioner.
Such bilateral free trade agreements have become an increasing emphasis for governments around the world as they acknowledge that the Doha talks – aimed at creating a global deal through the World Trade Organisation – have become bogged down.
But securing a meaningful EU-US deal will be easier said than done. The two sides have already waged epic battles over everything from aircraft subsidies to chlorine-rinsed chicken and hormone-treated beef.
The tariffs between them are actually quite low – averaging only about 4 per cent, according to the commission. The real value – and complication – in agreeing a deal will be harmonising a slew of competing regulations and technical standards that tend to interrupt the flow of goods and services.
Some should be straightforward. The US and EU, for example, have distinct but similar safety standards for motor vehicles, requiring companies to repeat examinations, costing time and money. It should be easy to hammer out some sort of compromise on a uniform standard, according to trade analysts.
But others are far more complicated and deep-rooted, such as Europe’s near-religious aversion to genetically modified organisms or hormone-treated beef – despite scientific tests confirming their safety.
It is a boost to our economies that does not cost a cent of taxpayer money
- José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president
In an effort to build confidence, Brussels has made some pre-negotiation concessions to Washington. It has accepted, for example, the use of lactic acid as a way to clean beef carcases.
Still, many others remain, and Mr Barroso made clear in his remarks that the bloc would not lower its standards.
“These negotiations are not about compromising the health of our consumers for commercial gains,” he said. “We will not negotiate changes that we do not want of the basic rules on either side – be it on hormones or GMOs.”
Hugo Paemen, a former EU ambassador to Washington, who now serves as a senior trade adviser to law firm Hogan Lovells, pronounced himself sceptical.
The two sides have launched a slew of transatlantic trade initiatives since the end of the cold war that have largely disappointed. Mr Paemen worried that the US might invest more effort in boosting trade links in Asia, noting that in his address on Tuesday night, Mr Obama touted a separate project known as the trans-Pacific partnership before he mentioned the EU-US deal.
“Clearly, the motivation on the European side is bigger than on the American side,” Mr Paemen said.
Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, a Brussels think-tank, argued that it would be vital for both sides to determine which areas are ripe for progress at the outset of negotiations and then take the others, such a GMOs, and “park them on the sidelines”.
“What we have right now are inflated ambitions on both sides where they are simply aiming for too much,” Mr Erixon said.
Mr De Gucht acknowledged that there was “no low-hanging fruit” for negotiators to harvest. But he argued that the familiarity between the two sides, a dose of pragmatism and a focus on the potential benefits could ultimately carry them through.
“We are focused on the future,” Mr De Gucht said. “This is not a negotiation that has as a prime aim to find, for example, a solution for chlorine chicken. What we want to do is make an internal market between the US and the EU.”
Mari Pangestu, Indonesia’s former trade minister, who is vying to be the next head of the WTO, urged the two sides to be transparent and inclusive in any efforts to set global standards, telling the Financial Times earlier this month: “What works in the US and EU – does that work in the rest of the world?”
An EU-US agreement could ultimately provide a jolt to the cause of a multilateral trade pact like Doha, she argued, especially if it were constructed so that others could eventually join.
But, Ms Pangestu noted, there would be much work to complete before then. “They have to resolve some very complicated issues,” she said. “It’s not really the trade negotiators, it’s going to be between the regulatory bodies.”
 
BoE will tolerate inflation to aid growth


By Chris Giles and Sarah O’Connor
©Bloomberg
The Bank of England said it was willing to tolerate persistently high inflation in an attempt to boost the recovery.
Marking its inflation forecasts sharply higher at the same time as becoming a little more pessimistic about growth, the bank has pre-empted the arrival of Mark Carney as governor, signalling policy will remain ultra-loose despite the overshoot in inflation.
More
ON THIS TOPIC
Carney calls for debate on inflation target
Martin Wolf A case to reset basis of monetary policy
Osborne presses BoE over growth
Mortgage lending conditions improve
IN UK ECONOMY
CBI lowers growth forecast
UK first-time buyers at five-year high
UK inflation unchanged at 2.7%
Carney not expected to make sudden change
“In the short run we’ll have to accommodate this, it’s not desirable, but that’s the hand we have to play,” Sir Mervyn King, outgoing governor of the BoE, told a press conference on Wednesday.
However, Sir Mervyn also stressed there were limits to what monetary policy could achieve, saying repeatedly the UK had suffered more than just a one-off shock. “There’s no point trying to persuade people to spend in the way they were spending before the crisis hit,” he said.
“We’re now in a position where you can see it’s harder and harder for monetary policy to push spending back up to the old path . . . It’s as if you’re running up an ever steeper hill.”
Sir Mervyn urged the government to implement reforms to the so-called supply-side of the economy, which he said would help to persuade people that growth would be better in the future.
In addition, he said he was “concerned” that the recent burst of optimism in financial markets was not consistent with the economic data coming out of some countries.
“The underlying data at least at this stage do not seem to be living up to the optimism in financial markets,” he said.
Last week the governor designate from the Bank of Canada, who takes over at the BoE in July, said he favoured “flexible inflation targeting” which allowed greater time for inflation to fall back to the 2 per cent target at times of economic weakness.
Following this script, the bank’s February inflation report said that its Monetary Policy Committee agreed that a persistent overshoot of inflation, likely to be for three years, was acceptable.
“As long as domestic cost and price pressures remained consistent with inflation returning to the target in the medium term, it was appropriate to look through the temporary, albeit protracted, period of above-target inflation,” the MPC said.
“Attempting to bring inflation back to the target sooner by removing the current policy stimulus more quickly than currently anticipated by financial markets would risk derailing the recovery and undershooting the inflation target in the medium term.”
Blaming student tuition fees, rising energy prices and the recent fall in sterling, which raises import prices, the MPC now expects inflation to rise from the 2.7 per cent level of January to above 3 per cent for the remainder of this year. They also think there is a 50-50 chance of inflation still being 2.3 per cent in two years’ time at the start of 2015.
The central projection has inflation falling back to the 2 per cent target only by the start of 2016.
The BoE has become a little more pessimistic about the recovery, marking down the growth forecast this year again as the MPC believes the chance of a rapid recovery has become ever less likely. It now believes that the economy is most likely to grow 1.7 per cent in the year to the first quarter of 2014, compared with a forecast of close to 2 per cent in the last inflation report three months ago.
For 2015, the bank has conversely become a touch more optimistic, now thinking the chances of a terrible prolonged stagnation have receded a little. “International policy actions have reduced the perceived likelihood of disorderly out-turns in the near term, and financial market sentiment has improved,” the report states.
There were no signs that the MPC was minded to increase the stock of quantitative easing – printing money to pump into the economy through the purchase of government bonds – even with the persistently weak recovery and its greater tolerance of inflation.
 
Il btp future non cede, dopo aver toccato momentaneamente i 110 si è subito ripreso quota 112...mi sarebbe piaciuto entrare sui btp ma questo movimento ha vanificato tutto e il premio al rischio è troppo basso in questo momento, attendo di vedere da qui a fine mese come si mette con l'ulteriore rimborso dei LTRO e le elezioni.

Rimango ancora con lo short su di noi e domani valuto e domani valuto se incrementare, sui cani ho già la posizione short quasi al completo e quindi li attendo al varco, come già detto.


Ho aperto in questi giorni posizioni short sul $ a 1,35 ma con un fondo di liquidità e mi sa che entro breve lo vado ad incrementare se stanno su questi livelli.

Andrò anche di bond paesi em. in valuta locale, sempre tramite fondi.


Per il momento è tutto.
 
Ultima modifica:
Sera,

per adesso siamo in linea, America che lateralizza ed Europa che recupera. Stando così le cose potrei anche anticipare l'uscita dal lungo su Milano già domani se le cose si mettono al posto giusto anche se la rotta tracciata portava a lunedì mattina. Deciderò domani in base al flusso dati.

Europa del tutta anomalo però, fortissima e poi debolissima, l'opposto dell'America che "doveva" fare il Nostro di movimento e Noi il loro. Comunque vediamo il riallineamento e poi "pensiamo" la possibile estensione del movimento.

Fino a ieri i volumi si sono sempre ristretti sopratutto al rialzo. A mio modo di vedere c'è il forte rischio che molti operatori non credano al ribasso e quindi la discesa precedente in assenza dei volumi potrebbe essere pericolosa se guardata in modo classico. Insomma, vorrei vedere dei minimi in assenza di volumi prima di essere certo che l'impostazione rimane rialzista di medio.
In sintesi temo una esplosione di volumi a rotture profonde che, di fatto, ufficializzerebbe l'ennesima inchiappettata ai gestorelli.

In fine la mia esposizione sarà sempre ridotta vista la difficoltà di lettura anche se credo che l'America troverà il modo di bruciare anche chi aspetta il ritraccio per entrare... Sciao ;)
 
buongiorno a tutti e grazie a duke per il commento sui volumi che trovo sempre interessante, anche se come detto rimango in operatività intraday poichè non ci sto a capire un gazz...
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Alto