Jamaica Ratings Lowered To 'SD' Following Announcement Of Debt Exchange
Publication date: 12-Feb-2013 13:47:15 EST
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Jamaica has announced a domestic debt exchange program that officially
launches today.
Based on our criteria, we consider this exchange a default.
We are lowering our foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings
on Jamaica to 'SD' from 'B-/B' and our ratings on the exchanged bonds to
'D'.
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 12, 2013--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today said it lowered its foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings
on Jamaica to 'SD' from 'B-/B'. At the same time, we lowered our ratings on
the bonds that are included in the sovereign's proposed domestic debt exchange
to 'D'. We lowered the ratings on the government securities not included in
the debt exchange to 'CCC'.
These rating actions follow the government's announcement yesterday of the
domestic debt exchange and its official launch today. The offer seeks to
exchange Jamaica's domestically issued debt. It includes foreign
currency-denominated debt that was issued locally, which carries foreign
currency ratings, which is why we have lowered the foreign currency credit
rating to 'SD'. This transaction excludes debt owed to nonresidents.
We consider the debt exchange as a default for two main reasons, as described
in our criteria, "Rating Implications Of Exchange Offers And Similar
Restructurings, Update," published May 12, 2009. "In our view, the offer
implies that investors will receive less value than promised as per the
original securities based on the lower interest rate and maturity
extension--an average increase of five years," said Standard & Poor's credit
analyst Joydeep Mukherji. "We view this offer as distressed rather than
opportunistic because the issuer does not intend to fulfill its original
obligations."
Jamaica undertook a similar debt exchange offer in January 2010, when we also
revised our foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to
'SD'.
The government has announced its intention to seek an agreement with the
International Monetary Fund, as part of a broad strategy of reforms designed
to manage its debt burden and gain access to more external liquidity. Although
such an agreement could ease short-term liquidity concerns, a sustained
improvement in the government's financial profile will take many years, in our
view, because of the country's structural economic weaknesses.
"We expect to assign a new sovereign credit rating in the 'CCC' category to
the new bonds upon the completion of the debt exchange and the issuance of the
new bonds, which is scheduled for later this month," said Mr. Mukherji. "A
high debt burden and weak external liquidity position will constrain the new
sovereign rating after the debt exchange is completed."
Despite the reduction in debt-servicing needs following the debt exchange,
Jamaica's general government debt burden will remain high, at above 115% of
GDP in 2013. Moreover, its net international reserves were approximately $1
billion at the end of January, down from more than $1.9 billion at the
beginning of 2012. Low external reserves, along with low prospects for GDP
growth, will constrain the new sovereign rating.
RELATED CRITERIA AND RESEARCH
Jamaica, Oct. 8, 2012
Criteria For Assigning 'CCC+', 'CCC', 'CCC-', And 'CC' Ratings, Oct. 1,
2012
Jamaica, Feb. 22, 2012
Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions, June 30, 2011
Distressed Sovereign Debt Exchanges: Examples From The Past And Lessons
For The Future, June 28, 2011
Rating Implications Of Exchange Offers And Similar Restructurings, Update,
May 12, 2009
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