scontro Iran-Israele (3 lettori)

[paradossista]

Questo è uno scenario medio, dove le sole infrastrutture petrolifere dell'Iran verrebbero colpite.

International crude oil prices could surge by $20 per barrel if Iran’s oil supply drops in a possible escalation of the Middle East conflict, Goldman Sachs says.

If major OPEC+ producers with enough spare production capacity, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), increase output and offset some of the potential losses from Iran, oil prices could rise more modestly, and the impact could be slightly less than $10 barrel, Goldman’s analyst added.
Most analysts say that the OPEC spare capacity, concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would be enough to compensate for an Iranian loss of supply.

Questo è un aspetto geopolitico di una certa rilevanza, cioè il colpire le infrastrutture energetiche iraniane significherebbe di rimbalzo impattare sulla Cina.

Iran currently produces around 3.5 million bpd, of which an estimated 1 million bpd are exported, mostly in China, which hasn’t stopped buying Iranian oil after the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on Tehran’s oil industry.

Goldman Sachs Sees $20 Upside to Oil Prices on Iran Supply Shock | OilPrice.com

Goldman Sachs warns that oil prices could surge by $20 per barrel if Iran's oil supply is disrupted due to the Middle East conflict.

oilprice.com

 

[paradossista]

Questo lo scenario estremo.

Goldman Sachs says a sustained fall in Iranian output could send oil prices up $20 a barrel, while Swedish bank SEB has warned that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel in an extreme scenario.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/why-oil-prices-havent-skyrocketed-on-middle-east-supply-fears-yet.html

 

[paradossista]

Minaccie e contro-minaccie fanno parte del gioco.

I pasdaran iraniani minacciano di colpire le raffinerie e i giacimenti di gas israeliani se lo Stato ebraico attaccasse l'Iran.
Lo annunciano le stesse Guardie della rivoluzione citate dal Teheran Times.

L'Iran minaccia di attaccare petrolio e gas in Israele - Ultima ora - Ansa.it

I pasdaran iraniani minacciano di colpire le raffinerie e i giacimenti di gas israeliani se lo Stato ebraico attaccasse l'Iran. Lo annunciano le stesse Guardie della rivoluzione citate dal Teheran Times. (ANSA)

www.ansa.it

 

[paradossista]

However, in case the conflict escalates to Iranian proxies targeting oil infrastructure in Iran's Middle Eastern neighbors, or if Iran moves to block or restrict oil cargo traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike to triple digits and record highs, analysts say.
But most watchers and experts see the mother of all oil shocks – a closure of the Strait of Hormuz – the world's most important chokepoint for oil trade handling about 20 million barrels per day (bpd) – as a low probability event.

Markets Brace for Middle East Oil Supply Shock | OilPrice.com

Analysts believe that a major supply disruption, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remains unlikely.

oilprice.com

 

[paradossista]

Secondo queste stime del Jerusalem Post il recente attacco missilistico iraniano è costato circa 200 milioni di dollari e la difesa israeliana circa 450 milioni di dollari.

La guerra Iran-Israele è (anche) economica: Teheran, missili da un milione di dollari ma Tel Aviv spende il doppio per difendersi

L'attacco missilistico di martedì scorso contro Israele, che sostanzialmente non ha causato danni rilevanti, è costato all'Iran circa 200 milioni di dollari, dunque poco meno di...

www.ilmessaggero.it