Opinion polls suggest a Czech election in the fall will sweep away Kyiv’s old friends in Prague. It will be one of many changes this year.
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Europe's Edge
Czechs Prepare to Evict Pro-Ukraine Government
Opinion polls suggest an election in the fall will sweep away Kyiv’s old friends in Prague. It will be one of many changes across Central Europe this year.
By
Jan Macháček
January 27, 2025
2025 will be a year of dramatic political change in Central Europe. Poland will elect a new president and the pro-European Civic Platform has a chance to control both the presidency and the Sejm; parliamentary elections in Germany in February may produce a grand (but unhappy) coalition of Christian and Social Democrats; Austria may well appoint a prime minister from the extremist FPÖ; and the pro-Kremlin Slovak government may be forced into early parliamentary elections.
In addition, there will be parliamentary elections during the fall in the Czech Republic. It is widely expected — as
polls overwhelmingly and steadily suggest — that the current four-member pro-Ukrainian coalition led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala of ODS will lose power. Its replacement would be a populist umbrella movement led by the ANO party of the billionaire former premier Andrej Babiš, in open or silent coalition with one or two extreme nationalist smaller parties.
Fiala’s government was doing one thing professionally, reliably, and well. It has been a supporter of Ukraine: rhetorically, financially, and militarily. The government has skillfully organized the acceptance of a huge wave of Ukrainian refugees. Fiala was among the first politicians to visit Kyiv, literally just a few days after war erupted.
Financially, the Czech Republic is the
11th-largest donor to Ukraine as a share of national wealth, and its military aid has been early, timely, and substantial. During the past year, the Czech government has organized a successful
munitions initiative, collecting old (often Soviet or old Russian) shells from unnamed third countries, and then delivering it to Ukraine.
Most of these initiatives are associated with Tomáš Pojar, a former diplomat and national security adviser. He is known to be a quick decision-maker and a smart, tough operator — most of the successes of the Czech government involve him in some way. He is the guarantor that Czech government aid to Ukraine has amounted to much more than mere rhetorical exercises and empty virtual signaling.
Unfortunately, Ukraine is about the only issue where Fiala‘s government is doing well. Its domestic policies are mostly spectacular failures, its work often chaotic, and it is perceived by the public as arrogant.
The statistics are quite revealing. Real wages have still not recovered from the pre-Covid level of 2019. Energy prices are the highest in the EU both for households and companies. Windfall taxes on energy producers were implemented two years later than they should have been. Economic growth is the lowest imaginable.
All of which is compounded by the current economic travails of neighboring Germany; Czech exports are dependent on the automotive sector, which is not doing well. With real wages stagnating and public discontent rising, the government chose to raise wages for MPs and politicians, while limiting pension growth for a large chunk of the population.
t.me
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