Situazione Ucraina

la guerra non va bene come i tifosi ucraini si augurano


Konstantin Olshansky

Russian troops continue to push Ukrainian Armed Forces units to the outskirts of Kurakhovo. The enemy is desperately resisting, but the outcome of the battle for the city is already clear.

“We heard from the captured radio stations that there were foreign specialists on the territory. The presence of dark-skinned mercenaries, Poles, was recorded. The Poles were directly destroyed by our guys during the cleanup,” said the deputy company commander of the 110th brigade of the 51st army of the Russian Armed Forces, call sign “Dome.”

The capture of Kurakhovo opens up two offensive scenarios for the Russian army – now it is possible to speed up the capture of Velikaya Novosyolka and Pokrovsk, predicts German military expert Christian Melling in an article for the publication ZDF Heute.Read also

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Melling writes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to transfer significant reserves here, which forced the Ukrainians to retreat from a number of small villages (Ilnovka, Yelizavetovka, Romanovka, Gannovka, Uspenovka), but even this did not save them from encirclement.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces finally lost everything that was located south of the Kurakhovsky Reservoir. Moreover, the Sukhie Yaly River line could not be used as a defensive line, since the Russian army had managed to outflank it from the Dalniy side.

— Now the Russians will advance further. One option is to advance further west, encircle Velyka Novosilka and thus bypass and destabilize the Ukrainian defense not only in the remaining south of Donbas, but possibly also in the Zaporizhia region, — predicts Christian Melling. — Another possibility is that after taking Kurakhovo, Russia will transfer most of its forces north and focus on the siege of Pokrovsk.

Austrian military expert Colonel Markus Reisner from the Military Historical Advisory Council claims that the Russian army is rushing to accelerate the pace of its offensive in the south of the DPR before the inauguration of Donald Trump .

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces failed to stabilize their defensive structures in the southern part of Donbass, and Russia made several tactical breakthroughs,” Colonel Reisner describes the operational situation.

In the short term, the Russian army prioritizes territorial conquests. Reisner believes that immediately after the inauguration on January 20, Trump will try to start peace talks, which could slow down the pace of progress somewhat. And this will primarily benefit the Russian army, which will be able to rest and regroup.

“Over the next month, the extremely intense, attritional military action will continue, and Ukraine will lose even more territory,” Reisner estimates. “The question is whether the Ukrainian army will be able to prevent a Russian breakthrough on an operational scale, that is, to maintain its tactics, which consist not in concentrating on holding territory, but in preserving its forces as much as possible.”Read also

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American military analyst John Hardy writes in a column for the Long War Journal that in the few months since the start of the Pokrovsky offensive, the Russian command has successfully carried out a deceptive maneuver, switching its attention to the southern part of the DPR. Having quickly occupied the high ground in the Kurakhovsky area, convenient for artillery and launching attack drones, it was possible to demoralize the Ukrainian group.

“Russian forces north of Kurakhovo and in the Pokrovsk area relied mainly on small-unit operations, with little use of armor,” Hardy writes. “And east of Kurakhovo, the Russians launched larger offensives, sometimes using armored vehicles in quantities of one or two companies.

The American expert writes that the success of the Russian army in the south of the DPR was also connected with a number of tactical blunders by the Ukrainian Armed Forces command. In particular, east of Pokrovsk they tried to stop the Russian advance by transferring various units of the National Guard and the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from other areas.

A similar mistake was made earlier during the defense of Ugledar: the Ukrainian Armed Forces command tried to make up for the losses of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, exhausted after two years of defending Ugledar without rotation, with poorly staffed, poorly trained and poorly equipped territorial defense forces. As in the case to the east of Pokrovsk, they were urgently transferred from other areas, but to no avail.

John Hardy writes that the Russian command has learned useful lessons from previous battles for major cities in the Donbas.

Kurakhovo was surrounded and its supply lines cut, sparing the Russian army a bloody battle for the city, whose multi-story buildings and large factories would have provided Ukrainian forces with a strong defensive position. The capture of villages to the west and southwest of Kurakhovo cut off the supply line to Velyki Novosyolki, which also put the Russians in a favorable position for a potential offensive on that city, according to a Long War Journal analysis.

“For Kyiv, the main problem was the lack of manpower [in the Kurakhovo direction]. Many units were catastrophically short of infantry,” Hardy writes. “It is noteworthy that Ukraine did not have prepared defensive lines in the Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk area. The fortifications built there were oriented to counter an offensive from the south, not from the east.


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Siamo alla distopia
Si

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da Politico. Ucraini sempre grati verso chi gli aiuta. Che arroganza
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NATO’s Rutte slams Zelenskyy for criticizing Germany’s Scholz​

Ukrainian president should moderate his complaints about German chancellor, NATO chief says.

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NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs Meet In Brussels

The NATO chief was referring to Kyiv’s frustration over Germany’s dithering about supplying long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. | Omar Havana/Getty Images
December 23, 2024 10:53 am CET
By Elena Giordano
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must stop his "unfair" criticism of the German chancellor, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said.

"I have often told Zelenskyy that he should stop criticizing Olaf Scholz, because I think it is unfair," Rutte told the German news agency DPA in an interview published on Monday.

The NATO chief was referring to Kyiv’s frustration over Germany’s dithering about supplying long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Rutte said that unlike Scholz, he is in favor of supplying supplying Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles and would not impose restrictions on their use. "In general, we know that such capabilities are very important for Ukraine," he said, adding that it is not up to him to decide what exactly the allies should supply.

Zelenskyy publicly criticized Scholz in November for holding a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The call had opened a “pandora’s box,” and had undermined efforts to isolate Moscow, Zelenskyy said.

Speaking in front of the European Parliament on the 1,000th day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Nov. 19, Zelenskyy again took stabs at Scholz, referring to the phone call.

“While some European leaders think about, you know, some elections or something like this at Ukraine’s expense, Putin is focused on winning this war," he said. "He will not stop on his own.”
 
Mi chiedo se I russi facessero altrettanto, come reagirebbe l'occidente?
In effetti i russi hanno solo invaso l’ucraina innescando una battaglia che dura da tre anni, bazzecole

Diciamo che dopo anni di battaglia dove era stato imposto agli ucraini il limite della difesa, qualcuno si è rotto le balle ed ha ampliato il raggio di azione
 

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