The very question of whether the Trump administration will be able to achieve peace in Ukraine is premature. At this moment, it is only possible to hope for a ceasefire. If a ceasefire is sustained for a certain period, actual peace negotiations – as opposed to formal but substance-empty meetings – can continue. It will be possible to hope for peace if time in a ceasefire is not used by the belligerents mainly for the recovery of their respective militaries.
The reason is simple. Moscow is not ready for any compromises. It plays for victory, not a draw.
Success can be achieved on the battlefield or at the negotiating table, but it must be unquestionable. In Putin’s view, Ukraine needs to be defeated, and the West has to admit Ukraine’s – and its own – defeat publicly.
Russia’s resources to continue the war are not limitless, but they are far from exhausted. To date, there has been no shortage of men or money. Russian troops are advancing, casualties notwithstanding. The military industry runs at full speed. Russia’s partners like North Korea, Iran, and, above all, China, provide Moscow with material or diplomatic support. So, if the option of Ukrainian and Western surrender is not available yet, the Kremlin, in its own calculus, can wait.
Russia’s goals extend far beyond the question of territories, although this, too, is not a minor issue. From a legal standpoint, Russian negotiators will find it difficult to discuss the fate of territories that have been formally annexed by Russia and made part of the Russian constitution. Even if they have not yet been conquered, “ceding” them back to Ukraine, which freezing the conflict along the frontline would imply, might, in principle, amount to high treason charges for negotiators and would provoke protest among Russia’s fairly influential pro-war community.
Other requests will be lifting the Western economic sanctions, returning Russia’s seized assets, making a legally-binding agreement to keep Ukraine outside NATO, and reducing the size of the Ukrainian military to the level which will make it incapable of self-defence. Regarding the question of security guarantees, Russia will insist that no NATO country’s troops should be engaged in the mission.
The only demand in Moscow’s favour that a certain number of the Western capitals see as acceptable is preventing Ukraine’s NATO entry. Most importantly,Trump said he understands Vladimir Putin’s concerns. What other trade-offs could be is absolutely unclear.
Incentives for the Kremlin to soften its position are absent. There will be no chemistry between Trump and Putin.
Verbal pressure on Putin from the White House will not bear fruit. The Russian leadership has accumulated much experience living with the Western economic sanctions. The sanctions would have to tighten much more to become unacceptably painful for Russia, but that would come at a substantial economic cost for the West, including the US. Apparently, this is not viewed as plausible by Moscow.
Does this mean that the West can abandon Ukraine without a negotiated solution? The probability is, unfortunately, not zero, but the consequences for the West will be dramatic. Left to its own devices and militarily defeated, Ukraine would either destabilize and disintegrate, continue to depopulate and lose chances for economic recovery, or have its eastern borders defined by Moscow with an installed marionette government administering some territory in the center. Worse, in this situation, Belarus and Moldova, partially or fully, are likely to be annexed by Russia, which will significantly aggravate the security situation.
Achieving peace in Ukraine will be a long-term effort.
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