Rindomenceslao
Forumer storico
soccia ragasss.... se continuiamo cosi andiamo a target a novembre!!
hehehe
hehehe
questa me la segno:
Goldman's Top Strategist Sets His S&P 500 Target For 2012
Sam Ro|Dec. 1, 2011, 6:07 PM|4,286|http://www.businessinsider.com/gold...s-his-sp-500-target-for-2012-2011-12#comments4
Goldman Sachs
David Kostin
It's that time of year when all of Wall Street's top strategists issue their forecasts for the next year.
In a new note to clients, Goldman Sachs' Chief Strategist David Kostin provides his outlook for the S&P 500. Applying an 11.8 forward P/E ratio, he sees the index ending 2012 at 1250:
Our 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month forecasts are 1150, 1200, and 1250. We use six valuation approaches including DDM, uncertainty-based P/E multiple, cyclically-adjusted P/E multiple, price/book and ROE relationship.
Here are some of the assumptions that support his 2012 target:
The economic backdrop:
- S&P 500 EPS of $97 in 2011, $100 (+3%) in 2012, and $106 (+6%) in 2013
- S&P 500 revenue increases 3.7% in 2012 and by 4.9% in 2013
Kostin's base case forecast also assumes that the Euro currency survives the current eurozone debt crisis. However, he warns: "We estimate the S&P 500 could fall by 25% to 900 in an adverse scenario in which the Euro collapses.
- Real GDP grows 1.5% in 2012 and 2.2% in 2013
- Unemployment rate near 9% for another two years, with under-employment at 16.2%
- Fed Funds rate remains unchanged at 0%-0.25% through 2013
- 10-year Treasury ends 2012 at 2.5% and climbed to 3.25% in 2013
Read more: Goldman's Top Strategist Sets His S&P 500 Target For 2012