impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
.
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esercizio di "pensiero negativo strong"-------------cmq sai che ho sempre affetto per te, anche se mi vuoi mandare i pezzettini delle quote sil a...pescare...!
Spazio di prova, 2° capitolo
- Creatore Discussione impa_ro
- Data di Inizio
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esercizio di "pensiero negativo strong"-------------cmq sai che ho sempre affetto per te, anche se mi vuoi mandare i pezzettini delle quote sil a...pescare...!
gilles1
Forumer storico
spero anche io non sia così...ma...
temo che il grafico "ritrovato" sia attendibile
no forza, no party
gilles1
Forumer storico
GRAFICI E RAGIONAMENTO MOLTO CONVINCENTE
in poche parole: SHORT comm tranquillamente
non c'è inflazione, non c'è crescita, i prezzi scendono e le medie incrociano al ribasso
Trader Dan's Market Views
in poche parole: SHORT comm tranquillamente
non c'è inflazione, non c'è crescita, i prezzi scendono e le medie incrociano al ribasso
Trader Dan's Market Views
impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
China ‘Major Factor’ In Gold Market; Sept. Net Imports Remain Above 100 Tons
By Allen Sykora Kitco News
Friday November 1, 2013 11:04 AM (Kitco News) - China’s net gold imports from Hong Kong declined marginally in September but overall are considered strong, with one investment bank citing this as an example of the continued shift toward more demand in Eastern nations than in the West.
Shipments to China from Hong Kong were 116.3 metric tons in September, with exports to Hong Kong of 6.9. This left net imports of 109.4 metric tons, down 0.7% from 110.2 the prior month, according to news reports.
“Month-to-month data that show small changes are not really that meaningful. What counts is the trend over a longer period…,” said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors and senior economic consultant for Rosland Capital. China “has become in recent years perhaps the major factor in the physical market and it’s likely to remain so or become even more-so in the years ahead.”
The Chinese government does not release actual statistics for imports into mainland China. As a result, analysts monitor data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department in an effort to measure the flow of the yellow metal into China.
“This was…the fifth consecutive month to show net imports in excess of 100 tons,” said Commerzbank. News reports peg net imports at 826 tons so far this year, double the first nine months of 2012.
Commerzbank said Chinese imports so far have exceeded the outflows from global gold exchange-traded products, which it lists at just shy of 703 metric tons in the first nine months of the year.
“This is further evidence that gold demand is shifting from West to East,” Commerzbank said.
Several analysts said the data confirm ideas that China will overtake India as the world’s largest consumer of gold in 2013. While Chinese demand has been strong for most of the year, Indian imports have been reported softer in response to government efforts to limit inflows of the metal to curb a large current-account deficit.
“With what is happening in India right now, China would be by far the biggest importer,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS (Switzerland) SA. “Don’t forget, they (the Chinese) also have production themselves internally that is consumed by them.”
Traders will be closely watching the October data when it is released to see whether there is slowing of Chinese imports. The Chinese market was closed for a one-week stretch for the Golden Week holidays, Nabavi pointed out. Also, several analysts said activity in China was more lackluster at the end of October, with premiums softer than earlier in the year.
“It will be interesting to see what figures we have in October,” Nabavi said.
Nichols pointed out, however, that lower premiums may not necessarily be an indicator of reduced domestic demand in China.
“The government has taken steps, in a sense, to provide more supply to the domestic market, increasing the number of banks and financial firms that are licensed to import gold,” he said. “They’ve sort of greased the wheels a little bit more in order to ameliorate the possibility of big premiums again.”
He said Chinese supplies are likely rising, both mine production and scrap recovery. This means especially strong consumption if the country is importing metal at the same time.
Further, there is likely more metal than reported flowing into the country via smuggling through “large and porous” borders, especially when premiums are high, Nichols said. And, he continued, the country’s central bank is thought to be adding to its gold reserves, and some of this may be held in depositories of other central banks and therefore not included in the import data.
Nichols suggested the government is likely trying to encourage private investment demand while at the same time minimizing the impact of its consumption on prices in the world marketplace.
“It wants low prices to acquire gold rather than prices that would certainly be higher if people were giving adequate recognition to the strength of Chinese demand,” Nichols said.
He later added: “Intuitively, I have to feel that Chinese demand is very strong, will remain strong over the long run and will become an increasingly important factor in setting the price in world markets.”
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News [email protected]
By Allen Sykora Kitco News
Friday November 1, 2013 11:04 AM (Kitco News) - China’s net gold imports from Hong Kong declined marginally in September but overall are considered strong, with one investment bank citing this as an example of the continued shift toward more demand in Eastern nations than in the West.
Shipments to China from Hong Kong were 116.3 metric tons in September, with exports to Hong Kong of 6.9. This left net imports of 109.4 metric tons, down 0.7% from 110.2 the prior month, according to news reports.
“Month-to-month data that show small changes are not really that meaningful. What counts is the trend over a longer period…,” said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors and senior economic consultant for Rosland Capital. China “has become in recent years perhaps the major factor in the physical market and it’s likely to remain so or become even more-so in the years ahead.”
The Chinese government does not release actual statistics for imports into mainland China. As a result, analysts monitor data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department in an effort to measure the flow of the yellow metal into China.
“This was…the fifth consecutive month to show net imports in excess of 100 tons,” said Commerzbank. News reports peg net imports at 826 tons so far this year, double the first nine months of 2012.
Commerzbank said Chinese imports so far have exceeded the outflows from global gold exchange-traded products, which it lists at just shy of 703 metric tons in the first nine months of the year.
“This is further evidence that gold demand is shifting from West to East,” Commerzbank said.
Several analysts said the data confirm ideas that China will overtake India as the world’s largest consumer of gold in 2013. While Chinese demand has been strong for most of the year, Indian imports have been reported softer in response to government efforts to limit inflows of the metal to curb a large current-account deficit.
“With what is happening in India right now, China would be by far the biggest importer,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS (Switzerland) SA. “Don’t forget, they (the Chinese) also have production themselves internally that is consumed by them.”
Traders will be closely watching the October data when it is released to see whether there is slowing of Chinese imports. The Chinese market was closed for a one-week stretch for the Golden Week holidays, Nabavi pointed out. Also, several analysts said activity in China was more lackluster at the end of October, with premiums softer than earlier in the year.
“It will be interesting to see what figures we have in October,” Nabavi said.
Nichols pointed out, however, that lower premiums may not necessarily be an indicator of reduced domestic demand in China.
“The government has taken steps, in a sense, to provide more supply to the domestic market, increasing the number of banks and financial firms that are licensed to import gold,” he said. “They’ve sort of greased the wheels a little bit more in order to ameliorate the possibility of big premiums again.”
He said Chinese supplies are likely rising, both mine production and scrap recovery. This means especially strong consumption if the country is importing metal at the same time.
Further, there is likely more metal than reported flowing into the country via smuggling through “large and porous” borders, especially when premiums are high, Nichols said. And, he continued, the country’s central bank is thought to be adding to its gold reserves, and some of this may be held in depositories of other central banks and therefore not included in the import data.
Nichols suggested the government is likely trying to encourage private investment demand while at the same time minimizing the impact of its consumption on prices in the world marketplace.
“It wants low prices to acquire gold rather than prices that would certainly be higher if people were giving adequate recognition to the strength of Chinese demand,” Nichols said.
He later added: “Intuitively, I have to feel that Chinese demand is very strong, will remain strong over the long run and will become an increasingly important factor in setting the price in world markets.”
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News [email protected]
impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
More Bearish Early Warning Signals for U.S. Stock Market; Gold Bulls Biding Their Time
Friday November 01, 2013 10:25 AM
(Kitco News) - I pointed out to my valued Kitco readers a couple weeks ago the weekly continuation chart for nearby S&P 500 stock index futures showed prices in a solid uptrend, but that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) overlaid on the weekly chart showed declining values. This is called "bearish divergence"
and it's an early warning signal that the stock index bulls are losing steam, even though prices are still in an uptrend.
Another early warning signal I want to point out to you, to further suggest the already very mature bull market run in U.S. stocks has probably about run its course, is that more and more analysts, traders and market watchers are turning bullish the stock market. The historically stock-market-bearish months of September and October have now passed, with equities bulls getting nary a scratch. Indeed, things certainly appear rosy for further stock market gains. That, by itself, should be a warning for stock traders and investors.
From a "contrary opinion" perspective that many veteran, successful traders and investors employ (including Warren Buffet), the fact that more and more market participants are jumping on the bullish stock market bandwagon suggests the top in equities cannot be far off. Remember, too, that a market is the most very bullish at the very top in prices--it's downhill from there.
One more very early near-term bearish technical clue occurred this week. The daily bar chart for the Dow stock index futures on Wednesday produced a "key reversal" down, whereby a new high was scored, but on that same day prices backed well down and closed lower and nearer the session low. Then price action on Thursday confirmed the key reversal down by producing follow-through selling pressure.
Trading and investing, more than anything else, is a money game. The flow of money is paramount and it supersedes all other supply and demand fundamentals or technical analysis in a market. At present, money is flowing heavily into the U.S. stock market (as well as other stock markets worldwide)--at the expense of all other investment asset classes. Such will not continue. History shows us, as it did in 2007 and at the turn of the century a little more than a dozen years ago, that stock market euphoria can quickly turn into stock market bust--and sooner and faster than the vast majority of investors ever believe before the fact.
Bullish traders and investors of other asset classes should be biding their time. It likely won't be too long until the air starts to come out of the presently high-flying stock market balloon, and then the money will start to flow to other asset classes, including the raw commodity sector and gold.
Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading, then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.
By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]
Friday November 01, 2013 10:25 AM
(Kitco News) - I pointed out to my valued Kitco readers a couple weeks ago the weekly continuation chart for nearby S&P 500 stock index futures showed prices in a solid uptrend, but that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) overlaid on the weekly chart showed declining values. This is called "bearish divergence"
and it's an early warning signal that the stock index bulls are losing steam, even though prices are still in an uptrend.
Another early warning signal I want to point out to you, to further suggest the already very mature bull market run in U.S. stocks has probably about run its course, is that more and more analysts, traders and market watchers are turning bullish the stock market. The historically stock-market-bearish months of September and October have now passed, with equities bulls getting nary a scratch. Indeed, things certainly appear rosy for further stock market gains. That, by itself, should be a warning for stock traders and investors.
From a "contrary opinion" perspective that many veteran, successful traders and investors employ (including Warren Buffet), the fact that more and more market participants are jumping on the bullish stock market bandwagon suggests the top in equities cannot be far off. Remember, too, that a market is the most very bullish at the very top in prices--it's downhill from there.
One more very early near-term bearish technical clue occurred this week. The daily bar chart for the Dow stock index futures on Wednesday produced a "key reversal" down, whereby a new high was scored, but on that same day prices backed well down and closed lower and nearer the session low. Then price action on Thursday confirmed the key reversal down by producing follow-through selling pressure.
Trading and investing, more than anything else, is a money game. The flow of money is paramount and it supersedes all other supply and demand fundamentals or technical analysis in a market. At present, money is flowing heavily into the U.S. stock market (as well as other stock markets worldwide)--at the expense of all other investment asset classes. Such will not continue. History shows us, as it did in 2007 and at the turn of the century a little more than a dozen years ago, that stock market euphoria can quickly turn into stock market bust--and sooner and faster than the vast majority of investors ever believe before the fact.
Bullish traders and investors of other asset classes should be biding their time. It likely won't be too long until the air starts to come out of the presently high-flying stock market balloon, and then the money will start to flow to other asset classes, including the raw commodity sector and gold.
Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading, then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.
By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]
gilles1
Forumer storico
aspettando Xin, Mav, IU, e gli altri amici
ci provo
si potrebbe anche argomentare in favore dell'ipotesi nel riquadro
ma vorrebbe dire comunque scendere un altro 4% prima di spararsi UP
mavtop
Forumer storico
Silver Future
Giusto per non dare nulla per scontato, almeno fino a quando non accadra' la catastrofe
Vediamo i pro ed i contro, in base a cio' che ci dice l'analisi ciclica per chi e' LONG, ovviamente chi e' SHORT deve invertire negativo con positivo e viceversa:
1) il prossimo T-1 del T+1 attuale del sottostante (SE CI SARA') ha un vincolo ribassista (nota negativa) che potrebbe portarlo in prossimita' della tline posta in area 21,2-21,35$ dipende da quando eventualmente la raggiungera' e da li potrebbero ripartire (nota positiva) col nuovo T+1
2) il T+2 del sottostante ha generato il 1o segnale di allarme (nota negativa) ma come ben sappiamo va verificato nel 2o T+1 che se rispettera' il segnale di allarme non sorpassera' quota 23,095$ (nota negativa) altrimenti se la sorpassera' annullera' l'allarme (nota positiva)
3) il T+3 inverso, ha un vincolo ribassista (rialzista sul sottostante, nota positiva) sui prossimi T+1, in particolare il prossimo dovra' scendere sotto (salire sopra sul sottostante) quota 23,095$ altrimenti saremo entrati in un nuovo T+3 inverso
4) l'eventuale discesa del sottostante sotto quota 20,495$ manderebbe il T+2 al ribasso, il T+3 al ribasso ed il T+4 girerebbe per chiudere (note tutte negative) aprendo le porte agli SHORT ed a nuovi minimi e qui vedrei bene area 18$ (a 18,24$ passa fibo 76,40% dall'inizio a TOP ultimo T+7)
5) l'eventuale salita del sottostante sopra quota 25,12$ aprirebbe le praterie ai LONG (nota molto positiva)
Ripeto attualmente la situazione e' tutt'altro che chiara, pero' abbiamo dei valori sul prezzo e dei vincoli che se non rispettati ci chiariranno un po' le idee.
In ogni caso il prossimo Tracy o T+1 al massimo dovrebbero chiarirci i dubbi per sempre, almeno spero.
Allego sempre tabella e grafici
Giusto per non dare nulla per scontato, almeno fino a quando non accadra' la catastrofe
Vediamo i pro ed i contro, in base a cio' che ci dice l'analisi ciclica per chi e' LONG, ovviamente chi e' SHORT deve invertire negativo con positivo e viceversa:
1) il prossimo T-1 del T+1 attuale del sottostante (SE CI SARA') ha un vincolo ribassista (nota negativa) che potrebbe portarlo in prossimita' della tline posta in area 21,2-21,35$ dipende da quando eventualmente la raggiungera' e da li potrebbero ripartire (nota positiva) col nuovo T+1
2) il T+2 del sottostante ha generato il 1o segnale di allarme (nota negativa) ma come ben sappiamo va verificato nel 2o T+1 che se rispettera' il segnale di allarme non sorpassera' quota 23,095$ (nota negativa) altrimenti se la sorpassera' annullera' l'allarme (nota positiva)
3) il T+3 inverso, ha un vincolo ribassista (rialzista sul sottostante, nota positiva) sui prossimi T+1, in particolare il prossimo dovra' scendere sotto (salire sopra sul sottostante) quota 23,095$ altrimenti saremo entrati in un nuovo T+3 inverso
4) l'eventuale discesa del sottostante sotto quota 20,495$ manderebbe il T+2 al ribasso, il T+3 al ribasso ed il T+4 girerebbe per chiudere (note tutte negative) aprendo le porte agli SHORT ed a nuovi minimi e qui vedrei bene area 18$ (a 18,24$ passa fibo 76,40% dall'inizio a TOP ultimo T+7)
5) l'eventuale salita del sottostante sopra quota 25,12$ aprirebbe le praterie ai LONG (nota molto positiva)
Ripeto attualmente la situazione e' tutt'altro che chiara, pero' abbiamo dei valori sul prezzo e dei vincoli che se non rispettati ci chiariranno un po' le idee.
In ogni caso il prossimo Tracy o T+1 al massimo dovrebbero chiarirci i dubbi per sempre, almeno spero.
Allego sempre tabella e grafici
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