impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
.33,94$ ci sono andato vicino
io ho allegerito la posizione sull'argento in chiusura
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Molto bene. Prevedi correzione ...?
Oggi pomeriggio vedo di fare il focus sul trade del mondo preziosi...
Ciao!
Spazio di prova, 2° capitolo (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione impa_ro
- Data di Inizio
.
Molto bene. Prevedi correzione ...?
Oggi pomeriggio vedo di fare il focus sul trade del mondo preziosi...
Ciao!
impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
.
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Ciao Star. Linea gialla più o meno coincidente con la trend tirata dai max decrescenti.....prima di arrivare là cmq deve passare quest'area a mio modo di vedere critica....seguiamo.
xinian70
CROC Analista
si.... ma è molto difficile fare previsioni causa fattori esterni (probabile Qe3).
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Molto bene. Prevedi correzione ...?
Oggi pomeriggio vedo di fare il focus sul trade del mondo preziosi...
Ciao!
mi aspetto un pullback a 1680 dell'oro, dove rientrerò
però non vedo ancora segni di cedimento, e la salita potrebbe continuare fino a 1800
Ultima modifica:
impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
GOLD.....leggo tante cose in giro, c'è euforia stellare, pare di esser tornati a maggio 2011 o agosto....attenzione...ve le ricordate le barre daily del 23/24 ago o quelle del 22/23 sett?
quindi (sebbene abbia molta strada da fare) io non sono per nulla tranquillo.
quindi (sebbene abbia molta strada da fare) io non sono per nulla tranquillo.
impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
(Kitco News) - Gold could build on its rally into next week and possibly close out the month of January with a gain, market participants said.
Countries that celebrate the Lunar New Year, such as China, will return to work next week, and others said that momentum that started following the dovish statement by the Federal Open Market Committee on its long-term interest rate outlook will likely continue.
Still, some market watchers said given the nearly one-way move in commodity prices in general, gold and other markets could be due for a corrective pullback, which would mean lower values.
Prices rose on Friday and on the week. The most-active April gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,735.40 an ounce, up 4.12% on the week. March silver settled at $33.790 an ounce, up 6.68% on the week.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 32 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 19 see prices up, while six see prices down, and none are neutral on prices. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical chart analysts.
Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report, said gold prices could rise next week, and possibly touch $1,750, after the FOMC meeting and Friday’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product report. It creates “a favorable environment for gold and commodities going forward. Gold value with respect to key commodities oil, copper and silver has been falling since October but its descent is showing signs of slowing. It is likely that this pause is temporary and a bullish price environment could develop for all four in the near term,” he said.
George Gero, vice president, global futures and precious metals strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said although the market saw some selling ahead of the weekend Friday, he expects gold prices to rise next week. He said first-notice day for the Comex February gold contract is Tuesday, so for those market participants who do not want to take or make delivery, they are either exiting positions or rolling those to farther-dated contracts.
Gero said while the majority of the positions are going into the most-active April contract, some are going into the June contract, while others are rolling positions as far out as the December 2012 and December 2013 contracts. That’s a bullish sign for gold as it suggests confidence that prices will rise in the future, he said.
“Gold is continuing to find favor with technical traders. Open interest is up, momentum is up. We’re looking for China to return to the market next week and the central banks have been buying,” Gero said.
OTHER MARKETS RISE
In addition to gold’s rally this week, silver and the platinum group metals have been rising. Michael Lewis, research analyst at Deutsche Bank, noted that the FOMC meeting was not only positive for gold, but it also gave silver a lift. “We would expect that silver prices could outperform gold in the near term. Longer term, we expect that the persistence of negative real interest rates will sustain the appeal of holding precious metals,” he said.
Gero said the spread between platinum and gold has been narrowing and he expects that to continue. The price premium gold has held over platinum was as much as $180 to $200 an ounce more than the white metal, which is historically unusual. That spread has fallen to about $110.
The auto outlook is improving and that’s bullish for platinum prices, since the metal is used in catalytic convertors. Gero said the spread narrowing likely being caused by fund managers, rather than retail buyers. “Most retail business doesn’t look at spreads,” he said.
CORRECTION POSSIBLE
While gold and other commodity prices have seen a stout rally in January, some market watchers said they’re looking for a potential correction as prices may have come overbought. “Gold is set up for a mild correction, as are commodities in general, sometime in the week ahead. I look for gold to break $1,700 but find support at $1,690. The trend remains favorable overall,” said Ken Morrison, founder and editor of online newsletter Morrison on the Markets.
Some market analysts are pointing to fresh worries out of Europe. Late last year, gold did not act as a safe haven when worries about the European debt situation intensified; rather, gold prices sold off along with all other markets as the dollar rose. A few market analysts said it’s important to keep that in mind now that concerns are rising about Portugal’s financial health.
Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman, said that Portugal appears to be plagued with the same issues that are affecting Greece. “While we have warned in the past of risks that Portugal would need a second aid package, it is only since S&P joined the other major rating agencies on Jan. 13 that more market participants have come over to this view,” he said.
While Portugal’s macro fundamentals are better than Greece’s “the difference is not of a sufficient magnitude to keep the wolf away from the door,” Chandler said, who added the economic conditions in Portugal are likely to deteriorate.
“Portugal is where Greece was 6 to 9 months ago. The question is (will) Portugal be where Greece is today toward the end of the year. Unless European officials take preventative action, the rot will continue and the contagion risk remains real,” Chandler said.
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News [email protected]
Countries that celebrate the Lunar New Year, such as China, will return to work next week, and others said that momentum that started following the dovish statement by the Federal Open Market Committee on its long-term interest rate outlook will likely continue.
Still, some market watchers said given the nearly one-way move in commodity prices in general, gold and other markets could be due for a corrective pullback, which would mean lower values.
Prices rose on Friday and on the week. The most-active April gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,735.40 an ounce, up 4.12% on the week. March silver settled at $33.790 an ounce, up 6.68% on the week.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 32 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 19 see prices up, while six see prices down, and none are neutral on prices. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical chart analysts.
Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report, said gold prices could rise next week, and possibly touch $1,750, after the FOMC meeting and Friday’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product report. It creates “a favorable environment for gold and commodities going forward. Gold value with respect to key commodities oil, copper and silver has been falling since October but its descent is showing signs of slowing. It is likely that this pause is temporary and a bullish price environment could develop for all four in the near term,” he said.
George Gero, vice president, global futures and precious metals strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said although the market saw some selling ahead of the weekend Friday, he expects gold prices to rise next week. He said first-notice day for the Comex February gold contract is Tuesday, so for those market participants who do not want to take or make delivery, they are either exiting positions or rolling those to farther-dated contracts.
Gero said while the majority of the positions are going into the most-active April contract, some are going into the June contract, while others are rolling positions as far out as the December 2012 and December 2013 contracts. That’s a bullish sign for gold as it suggests confidence that prices will rise in the future, he said.
“Gold is continuing to find favor with technical traders. Open interest is up, momentum is up. We’re looking for China to return to the market next week and the central banks have been buying,” Gero said.
OTHER MARKETS RISE
In addition to gold’s rally this week, silver and the platinum group metals have been rising. Michael Lewis, research analyst at Deutsche Bank, noted that the FOMC meeting was not only positive for gold, but it also gave silver a lift. “We would expect that silver prices could outperform gold in the near term. Longer term, we expect that the persistence of negative real interest rates will sustain the appeal of holding precious metals,” he said.
Gero said the spread between platinum and gold has been narrowing and he expects that to continue. The price premium gold has held over platinum was as much as $180 to $200 an ounce more than the white metal, which is historically unusual. That spread has fallen to about $110.
The auto outlook is improving and that’s bullish for platinum prices, since the metal is used in catalytic convertors. Gero said the spread narrowing likely being caused by fund managers, rather than retail buyers. “Most retail business doesn’t look at spreads,” he said.
CORRECTION POSSIBLE
While gold and other commodity prices have seen a stout rally in January, some market watchers said they’re looking for a potential correction as prices may have come overbought. “Gold is set up for a mild correction, as are commodities in general, sometime in the week ahead. I look for gold to break $1,700 but find support at $1,690. The trend remains favorable overall,” said Ken Morrison, founder and editor of online newsletter Morrison on the Markets.
Some market analysts are pointing to fresh worries out of Europe. Late last year, gold did not act as a safe haven when worries about the European debt situation intensified; rather, gold prices sold off along with all other markets as the dollar rose. A few market analysts said it’s important to keep that in mind now that concerns are rising about Portugal’s financial health.
Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman, said that Portugal appears to be plagued with the same issues that are affecting Greece. “While we have warned in the past of risks that Portugal would need a second aid package, it is only since S&P joined the other major rating agencies on Jan. 13 that more market participants have come over to this view,” he said.
While Portugal’s macro fundamentals are better than Greece’s “the difference is not of a sufficient magnitude to keep the wolf away from the door,” Chandler said, who added the economic conditions in Portugal are likely to deteriorate.
“Portugal is where Greece was 6 to 9 months ago. The question is (will) Portugal be where Greece is today toward the end of the year. Unless European officials take preventative action, the rot will continue and the contagion risk remains real,” Chandler said.
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News [email protected]