Run the Park
Forumer storico
Aggiorno la mia ipotesi di conteggio sull'Eurobund; commenti bene accetti 
Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bond-10y-Bund : la maledizione di f4f (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
siamo al test dei max rel , ieri sul balzo post-auction Oi T-Bronx in crescita di 3k, ergo rialzo supportato da nuovi long
bannate fernandoZ che mi devo impossessare del suo archivio
siamo al test dei max rel , ieri sul balzo post-auction Oi T-Bronx in crescita di 3k, ergo rialzo supportato da nuovi long
bannate fernandoZ che mi devo impossessare del suo archivio
Run the Park
Forumer storico
Comincio a entrare short sull'Eurobund.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
toh toh cosa dicono quelli di LB
Rientra l'inflazione Usa
ma la Fed alzerà ancora
MILANO. Rientra lo spettro dell’inflazione americana. La conferma dovrebbe arrivare venerdì con la diffusione dei dati di agosto che, secondo Banca Intesa, dovrebbero mostrare una variazione marginalmente positiva (+0,1% mensile) ed inferiore alle attese di mercat, che si aspettano un incremento dello 0,3%. In entrambi i casi, le attese per il mese di agosto, se confermate, si tradurrebbero in un raffreddamento dei prezzi rispetto al mese precedente, quando avevano segnato un aumento dello 0,4% mensile e del 4,1% su base annua.
Nonostante il rallentamento dell’inflazione, per gli analisti di Lehman Brothers il rialzo dei tassi della Fed non è ancora arrivato al capolinea. Fuori dal coro degli analisti, che non vedono ulteriori ritocchi all’insù del costo del denaro americano, Lehman crede che la Federal Reserve alzerà i tassi di interesse ancora due volte, a ottobre e subito dopo a gennaio, portandoli al 5,75%. Non solo. “Qualora il rialzo mensile dell’inflazione di agosto – mettono in evidenza in una nota – dovesse mostrare un andamento superiore allo 0,3% mensile, Bernanke potrebbe anticipare la nuova stretta creditizia già a settembre. In controtendenza rispetto al mercato, riteniamo – spiegano gli analisti in una nota – che per quanto in rallentamento, la crescita del secondo semestre, prevista intorno al 2,5%, non sia così bassa per tenere sotto controllo l’inflazione, che vediamo su livelli sostenuti fino alla fine del 2007". E’ infatti nel quarto trimestre del prossimo anno che la banca d’affari vede un effettivo rientro dell’inflazione. "Ed è solo allora – concludono – che la Fed cambierà la rotta seguita negli ultimi anni, tagliando di 25 punti base il costo del denaro".
Rientra l'inflazione Usa
ma la Fed alzerà ancora
MILANO. Rientra lo spettro dell’inflazione americana. La conferma dovrebbe arrivare venerdì con la diffusione dei dati di agosto che, secondo Banca Intesa, dovrebbero mostrare una variazione marginalmente positiva (+0,1% mensile) ed inferiore alle attese di mercat, che si aspettano un incremento dello 0,3%. In entrambi i casi, le attese per il mese di agosto, se confermate, si tradurrebbero in un raffreddamento dei prezzi rispetto al mese precedente, quando avevano segnato un aumento dello 0,4% mensile e del 4,1% su base annua.
Nonostante il rallentamento dell’inflazione, per gli analisti di Lehman Brothers il rialzo dei tassi della Fed non è ancora arrivato al capolinea. Fuori dal coro degli analisti, che non vedono ulteriori ritocchi all’insù del costo del denaro americano, Lehman crede che la Federal Reserve alzerà i tassi di interesse ancora due volte, a ottobre e subito dopo a gennaio, portandoli al 5,75%. Non solo. “Qualora il rialzo mensile dell’inflazione di agosto – mettono in evidenza in una nota – dovesse mostrare un andamento superiore allo 0,3% mensile, Bernanke potrebbe anticipare la nuova stretta creditizia già a settembre. In controtendenza rispetto al mercato, riteniamo – spiegano gli analisti in una nota – che per quanto in rallentamento, la crescita del secondo semestre, prevista intorno al 2,5%, non sia così bassa per tenere sotto controllo l’inflazione, che vediamo su livelli sostenuti fino alla fine del 2007". E’ infatti nel quarto trimestre del prossimo anno che la banca d’affari vede un effettivo rientro dell’inflazione. "Ed è solo allora – concludono – che la Fed cambierà la rotta seguita negli ultimi anni, tagliando di 25 punti base il costo del denaro".
Run the Park
Forumer storico
Se l'ebz6 continuasse così rischierei di innamorarmi di lui...
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Treasuries up on cheaper oil,corporate issuance key
Wed Sep 13, 2006
By John Parry
NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices mostly rose on Wednesday as recent declines in oil prices helped alleviate bond investors' inflation concerns.
Buying and selling of Treasuries associated with a heavy calendar of corporate bond issuance is expected to be another catalyst for the market in a light economic data session, strategists said.
U.S. crude was trading modestly higher Wednesday, but was still near $64 per barrel <CLc1>, off nearly 19 percent from a record peak above $78 per barrel in mid-July.
"We continue to see good demand in the long end of the curve from both the U.S. players and overseas," wrote Andrew Brenner, head of global fixed-income at Hapoalim Securities in New York. "Lower oil prices are forcing inflation down ... gas at the pumps is off 14 percent in the last month ... this will pressure all the inflation numbers lower this fall," Brenner added.
Treasuries prices fleetingly ticked up on market rumors, which an airport official swiftly denied, of a possible explosion at New York's John F. Kennedy Airport.
"There have been some rumors of an explosion at JFK. People trade on rumors. The 10-year Treasury note is at key support levels," said Frank Hsu, director of global fixed income at Fimat USA in New York.
CNN reported a truck had exploded after hitting a highway overpass in Brooklyn, a few miles from the airport.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT>, still buoyed in the aftermath of a well-received auction of this maturity on Tuesday, rose 7/32 in price for a yield of 4.75 percent versus 4.78 percent late on Tuesday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.
Long maturities respond particularly closely to inflation expectations, which erode a bond's value over time.
Thirty-year bonds <US30YT> rose 12/32 in price for a yield of 4.88 percent, versus 4.91 percent late on Tuesday.
Yet over the longer term, falling oil prices are a mixed bag for bonds, easing some inflation concerns, which bolsters bond prices, but also potentially boosting consumer spending because cheaper gasoline can act as a de facto tax cut for consumers.
In deciding its next interest rate moves, the Federal Reserve will watch such trends closely, as will bond traders.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent in August -- its first pause since June 2004, which has fueled speculation borrowing costs have peaked for this cycle.
Two-year notes <US2YT> -- which respond closely to market expectations for Fed monetary policy moves -- were unchanged in price for a yield of 4.82 percent, versus 4.82 percent on Tuesday.
Some $20 billion of corporate bonds supply this week is temporarily weighing on Treasuries as underwriters sell government bonds for hedging purposes until the corporate bond sales are completed, at which point they typically buy Treasuries back. Some traders estimate that September issuance will be $70 billion to $80 billion.
Wed Sep 13, 2006
By John Parry
NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices mostly rose on Wednesday as recent declines in oil prices helped alleviate bond investors' inflation concerns.
Buying and selling of Treasuries associated with a heavy calendar of corporate bond issuance is expected to be another catalyst for the market in a light economic data session, strategists said.
U.S. crude was trading modestly higher Wednesday, but was still near $64 per barrel <CLc1>, off nearly 19 percent from a record peak above $78 per barrel in mid-July.
"We continue to see good demand in the long end of the curve from both the U.S. players and overseas," wrote Andrew Brenner, head of global fixed-income at Hapoalim Securities in New York. "Lower oil prices are forcing inflation down ... gas at the pumps is off 14 percent in the last month ... this will pressure all the inflation numbers lower this fall," Brenner added.
Treasuries prices fleetingly ticked up on market rumors, which an airport official swiftly denied, of a possible explosion at New York's John F. Kennedy Airport.
"There have been some rumors of an explosion at JFK. People trade on rumors. The 10-year Treasury note is at key support levels," said Frank Hsu, director of global fixed income at Fimat USA in New York.
CNN reported a truck had exploded after hitting a highway overpass in Brooklyn, a few miles from the airport.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT>, still buoyed in the aftermath of a well-received auction of this maturity on Tuesday, rose 7/32 in price for a yield of 4.75 percent versus 4.78 percent late on Tuesday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.
Long maturities respond particularly closely to inflation expectations, which erode a bond's value over time.
Thirty-year bonds <US30YT> rose 12/32 in price for a yield of 4.88 percent, versus 4.91 percent late on Tuesday.
Yet over the longer term, falling oil prices are a mixed bag for bonds, easing some inflation concerns, which bolsters bond prices, but also potentially boosting consumer spending because cheaper gasoline can act as a de facto tax cut for consumers.
In deciding its next interest rate moves, the Federal Reserve will watch such trends closely, as will bond traders.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent in August -- its first pause since June 2004, which has fueled speculation borrowing costs have peaked for this cycle.
Two-year notes <US2YT> -- which respond closely to market expectations for Fed monetary policy moves -- were unchanged in price for a yield of 4.82 percent, versus 4.82 percent on Tuesday.
Some $20 billion of corporate bonds supply this week is temporarily weighing on Treasuries as underwriters sell government bonds for hedging purposes until the corporate bond sales are completed, at which point they typically buy Treasuries back. Some traders estimate that September issuance will be $70 billion to $80 billion.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
f4f ha scritto:c'è un tuning da fare, le vola sono quelle di ieri - stimate
oggi dovrebbero essere sul ?? 12%, sottostante 37900circa
ma come prima prova ecco
tempo di studio 15'
elaborazione 20''
costo = margine = 1450euro +commissioni
al margine di un mini ne fai 2
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1158153555gipa2.jpg
Potremmo non essere lontani....
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Dobbiamo osservare con attenzione le notizie sullo Yen....
FOREX-Yen stages technical bounce, dollar pares some losses
Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:52pm ET
By Amanda Cooper
NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The yen broke a three-day losing streak against the dollar on Wednesday largely on technical positioning, but some dealers saw a risk of renewed weakness for the Japanese currency.
Traders attributed the rebound from this week's five-month lows largely to protective measures ahead of a weekend Group of Seven industrialized nations meeting and risks that European leaders may make fresh calls for further yen strength.
By afternoon trade in New York, the dollar had pared some of the day's losses but was still down across the board, even though it sat within a whisker of two-month highs against a basket of major currencies <DXY> seen on Monday.
Traders were left to focus on Thursday's retail sales data for July, which could provide evidence not just of how active consumers have been over the summer, but also clues of much they are likely to spend during the key holiday season at the year-end.
Wall Street often looks at late summer back-to-school sales as an indication of what December sales will look like.
But the focus remained on the yen's recovery despite a backdrop of waning expectations for further Japanese rate rises and short-term bullishness toward the dollar.
"The yen's performance is surprising given that, first of all, higher yielders are generally doing better -- and that should be bad for the yen," said Daniel Katzive, foreign exchange strategist with UBS Securities in Greenwich, CT.
In addition, he said, "the perception in the market was that Treasury was perhaps taking a longer-term view on the dollar/China exchange rate, and that should also be negative for the yen."
The market may be concluding that a softer approach will be more effective in persuading China to loosen its grip on the tightly-controlled yuan and allow its currency to appreciate further, he said.
The yen is often traded as a proxy for the Chinese yuan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Wednesday urged China to continue moving toward a more flexible, market-driven exchange rate, although media reports have suggested Paulson will take a soft approach when he visits China next week.
The dollar pared some of its losses against the yen and was last down 0.2 percent at 117.58 yen <JPY>, above the session low of 117.35 but off a five-month high of 118.15 yen a day ago. The euro was down 0.2 percent at 149.24 yen <EURJPY>.
Against the dollar, the euro surrendered some of its gains, to last hold around $1.2692 <EUR>, barely changed on the day, having hit an intra-day high of $1.2717.
Still, market participants warned the yen in particular remains vulnerable to a near-term decline, as lower Japanese rates mean investors can borrow it cheaply, then sell it to buy higher-yielding currencies in so-called "carry trades."
Similar strategies have weighed recently on the low-yielding Swiss franc before it rebounded on Wednesday <CHF>.
"The market still wants to sell low-yielders and buy high-yielders, and the yen and Swissie remain relatively weak," said John McCarthy, vice president of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York.
Traders have punished the yen lately after some weak Japanese economic data bolstered the view that the Bank of Japan will leave interest rates on hold this year.
With Japan's interest rates at just 0.25 percent, it will be some time before the yen can narrow significantly its yield gap with most other major currencies.
That leaves it exposed to carry trades, which until now have tended to benefit the high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars.
"We're quite bullish on the dollar, as the uninspiring commodity outlook means Aussie and kiwi are not the best places to be," said Divyang Shah, global strategist at IDEAGlobal in London. (Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson, Kevin Plumberg and Nick Olivari)
FOREX-Yen stages technical bounce, dollar pares some losses
Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:52pm ET
By Amanda Cooper
NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The yen broke a three-day losing streak against the dollar on Wednesday largely on technical positioning, but some dealers saw a risk of renewed weakness for the Japanese currency.
Traders attributed the rebound from this week's five-month lows largely to protective measures ahead of a weekend Group of Seven industrialized nations meeting and risks that European leaders may make fresh calls for further yen strength.
By afternoon trade in New York, the dollar had pared some of the day's losses but was still down across the board, even though it sat within a whisker of two-month highs against a basket of major currencies <DXY> seen on Monday.
Traders were left to focus on Thursday's retail sales data for July, which could provide evidence not just of how active consumers have been over the summer, but also clues of much they are likely to spend during the key holiday season at the year-end.
Wall Street often looks at late summer back-to-school sales as an indication of what December sales will look like.
But the focus remained on the yen's recovery despite a backdrop of waning expectations for further Japanese rate rises and short-term bullishness toward the dollar.
"The yen's performance is surprising given that, first of all, higher yielders are generally doing better -- and that should be bad for the yen," said Daniel Katzive, foreign exchange strategist with UBS Securities in Greenwich, CT.
In addition, he said, "the perception in the market was that Treasury was perhaps taking a longer-term view on the dollar/China exchange rate, and that should also be negative for the yen."
The market may be concluding that a softer approach will be more effective in persuading China to loosen its grip on the tightly-controlled yuan and allow its currency to appreciate further, he said.
The yen is often traded as a proxy for the Chinese yuan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Wednesday urged China to continue moving toward a more flexible, market-driven exchange rate, although media reports have suggested Paulson will take a soft approach when he visits China next week.
The dollar pared some of its losses against the yen and was last down 0.2 percent at 117.58 yen <JPY>, above the session low of 117.35 but off a five-month high of 118.15 yen a day ago. The euro was down 0.2 percent at 149.24 yen <EURJPY>.
Against the dollar, the euro surrendered some of its gains, to last hold around $1.2692 <EUR>, barely changed on the day, having hit an intra-day high of $1.2717.
Still, market participants warned the yen in particular remains vulnerable to a near-term decline, as lower Japanese rates mean investors can borrow it cheaply, then sell it to buy higher-yielding currencies in so-called "carry trades."
Similar strategies have weighed recently on the low-yielding Swiss franc before it rebounded on Wednesday <CHF>.
"The market still wants to sell low-yielders and buy high-yielders, and the yen and Swissie remain relatively weak," said John McCarthy, vice president of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York.
Traders have punished the yen lately after some weak Japanese economic data bolstered the view that the Bank of Japan will leave interest rates on hold this year.
With Japan's interest rates at just 0.25 percent, it will be some time before the yen can narrow significantly its yield gap with most other major currencies.
That leaves it exposed to carry trades, which until now have tended to benefit the high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars.
"We're quite bullish on the dollar, as the uninspiring commodity outlook means Aussie and kiwi are not the best places to be," said Divyang Shah, global strategist at IDEAGlobal in London. (Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson, Kevin Plumberg and Nick Olivari)