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New Zealand Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate at 7.25% (Update5)
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's central bank Governor Alan Bollard said he probably won't cut the benchmark interest this year because the inflation outlook has worsened.
Bollard, who is tasked by the government with keeping inflation between 1 percent and 3 percent, said the rate will remain above his target range for longer than he forecast last month. He kept the benchmark interest rate at a record-high 7.25 percent today.
``The short-term inflation outlook has worsened,'' Bollard said in a statement released in Wellington today. ``We see no scope for a cut in the official cash rate this year.''
Bollard has raised interest rates nine times since January 2004 to curb spending and a housing boom, which fanned inflation in the $108 billion economy. Inflation may accelerate from 3.3 percent in the year ended March 31 because of a 7.5 percent drop in the local currency against the U.S. dollar this year and rising fuel prices.
``Monetary policy must remain vigilant against these price shocks spilling over into inflation expectations, and price and wage-setting behavior,'' said Bollard.
Gasoline prices rose this week to a record. Fuel prices soared 23 percent in the year ended March 31, according to a government report on April 19. Air New Zealand Ltd., the nation's biggest airline, will increase fares by 10 percent on May 1 because of higher jet fuel costs.
Inflation Expectations
``We expect significant further price rises over coming quarters as a result of the ongoing world oil shock,'' said Bollard. ``These effects are expected to keep annual inflation above 3 percent for longer than previously projected and risk putting upward pressure on inflation expectations.''
The central bank on March 9 forecast inflation would average 3.25 percent in the first half of 2006 and 2.75 percent in the second half. It didn't publish new forecasts today.
``Inflation is the evil at this juncture in the cycle,'' said Cameron Bagrie, chief economist at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Wellington. ``We're going to forego a bit of growth over 2006-2007 to make sure inflation does not accelerate.''
Bollard said he won't raise rates to counter the one-time boost to prices from the weaker currency and higher fuel costs.
All 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast Bollard would keep the benchmark rate unchanged today. Just one expects a cut before June 30. The next rate review is on June 8.
Currency Decline
The yield on a three-month bank-bill futures contract maturing in September fell 5 basis points after the announcement to 7.31 percent at the 5 p.m. market close in Wellington. That suggests traders are more confident Bollard could cut interest rates in the third quarter. A basis point is 0.01 percentage points.
New Zealand's benchmark rate is 2.5 percentage points more than the Federal Reserve's target, which has stoked demand for New Zealand dollar-denominated securities. The Reserve Bank of Australia's benchmark rate has been unchanged at 5.5 percent since March last year.
New Zealand's dollar has been the worst-performing major currency against the U.S. dollar this year. 
It bought 63.02 U.S. cents at 5 p.m. from 63.27 before the announcement.
Recent economic reports buoyed expectations Bollard would leave rates unchanged. Business confidence rebounded to a seven-month high this month, according to a survey of 531 companies by National Bank of New Zealand published yesterday.
House Prices
House sales rose 27 percent in March from February and average house prices rose to a record, according to Real Estate Institute figures published on April 18. Retail sales rose 1.9 percent in February, the fastest pace in two years, according to government figures on April 13.
Consumer spending, which makes up 60 percent of the economy, has been buoyed by a record-low jobless rate and rising wages.
The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter, according to a government report on Feb. 9. That's the lowest of 27 economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that use standardized rates.
Wages for non-government workers rose 2.9 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, the fastest pace since the labor cost series began in 1992.
Still, Bollard is under pressure to cut interest rates after the economy contracted 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter. A survey of 551 businesses by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Inc. published on April 11 showed 38 percent of companies had lower profits and 47 percent faced higher costs in the first three months of the year.
Spending Slows
The economy ``has weakened faster than expected,'' said Bollard. Spending will continue to slow this year, partly offset by growth in exports, he said.
The economy is at a ``virtual standstill,'' said Brendan O'Donovan, chief economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington, who expects a rate cut in July.
``Bollard is overdoing the threat to inflation, with downside risks coming from a protracted period of very weak economic growth.''
Westpac expects economic growth will slow to 0.7 percent this year from 2.2 percent in 2005. Bollard on March 9 forecast growth of 1.7 percent in 2006.
Australian Dollar Gains as Expectations of Rate Increase Mount
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar rose to a three-month high and bonds fell on mounting expectations the central bank may increase interest rates for the first time in more than a year as soon as next week.
The currency bought 75.33 U.S. cents at 1:31 p.m. in Sydney, up from 74.57 cents in Asian trading late yesterday. It has climbed 7.3 percent from a low of 70.16 cents on March 29, and
is the best-performing of 17 major currencies this month 
tracked by Bloomberg. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 5.72 percent, the highest in more than a year.
The dollar extended gains after a report yesterday showed inflation accelerated to 3 percent in the year ended March 31, to be at the top of the central bank's 2 percent to 3 percent target range. The Reserve Bank's policy-setting board, which has left its benchmark rate at 5.5 percent for 13 months, next meets May 2.
``In a nutshell, the Reserve Bank looks like it might raise rates in May,'' said Besa Deda, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. ``The factors underpinning the dollar including high commodity prices remain,'' she said.
Gold prices closed at the highest in more than 25 years in New York yesterday. Copper rose to a record in London and silver gained. Commodity exports account for about 10 percent of Australia's economy.
The dollar may soon rise to 75.85 cents, Deda said.
Reserve Bank Governor Ian Macfarlane in February said interest rates were more likely to rise than fall. The policy- setting board will announce its rates decision at 9:30 a.m. Sydney time on May 3.
`Even-Money' Bet
Eleven of 22 economists in the latest Bloomberg News survey expect a rate increase this year, up from seven who forecast an increase in a March survey. Two expect rates to be raised in May or June.
Macquarie Bank Ltd. interest-rate strategist Rory Robertson yesterday said the case for an interest rate increase is now stronger than at any time since Macfarlane last lifted borrowing costs in March 2005.
A quarter-point increase next week is now ``an even-money bet,'' Robertson said.
Bonds and bank bills fell as investors increased bets rates would be raised.
``Most participants think that a rate rise is imminent,'' said Warren Bird, head of fixed interest and foreign exchange at Colonial First State Investment Management in Sydney, which manages the equivalent of about $27 billion of cash and bonds.
Rebounding Economy
The 10-year government bond yields rose to 5.72 percent from 5.70 percent yesterday. Like-dated U.S. Treasuries yield 5.10 percent, taking the yield gap to 62 basis points. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Futures based on the September 90-day bank bills yielded the most since March 2005. They were 5.99 percent, compared with 5.95 percent yesterday. The contracts settle at a three-month lending rate that averaged 15 basis points above the central bank's cash rate target in the past year.
Expectations of a rate rise have grown as reports show the economy is rebounding. Australia's A$870 billion economy grew 0.5 percent in the quarter ended December 31, compared with 0.3 percent the previous quarter.
Consumer spending and home building, which slowed last year, are rebounding and may fuel economic growth this year. Retail sales gained 0.7 percent in February, twice as much as economists forecast. Building approvals jumped 2.2 percent and housing finance rose 1.1 percent.
The unemployment rate fell to a 29-year-low 5 percent in March and business confidence rose to a 29-month high.
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