More Economists Expect Australian Rates Will Rise (Update1)
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's record exports and low unemployment have increased expectations the central bank will raise official interest rates this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Of the 21 economists surveyed on April 7, nine now expect the overnight cash rate to increase by the year's end, up from seven in a survey on March 27. No economist forecasts the rate will fall, compared with two in the previous survey. The rest expect the rate to remain at 5.5 percent.
Exports, employment and housing finance are rising faster than economists expected, government reports showed last week. Central bank Governor Ian Macfarlane has left interest rates unchanged for 13 months as the economy grew at its slowest pace in four years in 2005. Interest-rate futures show traders have increased their bets on borrowing costs rising by the end of this year.
``There's such a tailwind behind the economy and very strong global growth, mostly in Asia,'' said Stephen Roberts, director of research at Grange Securities Ltd. in Sydney. ``We're on the cusp of a strong pickup in economic growth, with all the inflation implications that follow.''
Roberts is one of only two economists forecasting rates will rise in the coming two months. He also expects a further increase to 6 percent by December. The others predicting higher rates all expect a rate of 5.75 percent by the end of the year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at its meeting last week. The bank's board next meets on May 2 and announces its decision the following day.
Record Exports
Exports rose 10 percent to a record in February, the government reported last week. The unemployment rate fell to a 29-year low of 5 percent in March.
Home-loan approvals rose 1.1 percent in February, the government said on April 7, and an earlier report showed building approvals rose 2.2 percent.
Wages grew at 4.2 percent in the three months to Dec. 31, and the consumer price index, the official measure of inflation, rose 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. The central bank aims to keep annual inflation between 2 percent and 3 percent.
The yield on December 90-day bank bill interest-rate futures rose 21 basis points to 5.87 percent last week, the highest in almost a year. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The Australian dollar bought 72.63 U.S. cents at 8:16 a.m. in Sydney from 72.62 cents in late New York April 7. The currency
Bloomberg Survey
Following are economists' forecasts for the Reserve Bank of Australia's overnight cash rate target on June 30 and by the end of 2006:
Interest Rate By End of:
2nd-Qtr 4th-Qtr
2006 2006
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Median 5.5% 5.5%
High Forecast 5.75% 6.0%
Low Forecast 5.5% 5.5%
No. of replies 21 21
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ABN Amro 5.5% 5.5%
AMP Capital Investors 5.5% 5.5%
ANZ Bank 5.5% 5.75%
Ausbil Dexia 5.5% 5.5%
BT Funds 5.5% 5.75%
Citigroup Australia 5.5% 5.5%
Commonwealth Bank 5.5% 5.5%
Goldman Sachs 5.5% 5.75%
Grange Securities 5.75% 6.0%
HSBC Bank Australia 5.5% 5.75%
ICAP Australia 5.5% 5.5%
JPMorgan Chase 5.5% 5.5%
Macquarie Bank 5.5% 5.75%
Merrill Lynch 5.5% 5.75%
Nomura Australia 5.5% 5.5%
RBC Capital Markets 5.5% 5.5%
St.George Bank 5.5% 5.5%
Societe Generale 5.5% 5.75%
TD Securities 5.75% 5.75%
UBS Australia 5.5% 5.5%
Westpac Bank 5.5% 5.5%
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To contact the reporter for this story:
Hans van Leeuwen in Sydney at
hvanleeuwen1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: April 9, 2006 19:50 EDT
New Zealand February Retail Sales Probably Rose 0.3%: BN Survey
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's retail sales probably rose in February for just the second time in six months, according to economists. The gain probably won't spur economic growth enough to prevent the central bank cutting interest rates.
Sales probably rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, from January, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 13 economists. Statistics New Zealand will release the report in Wellington on April 13 at 10:45 a.m.
Sales fell in December and were flat in January after Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard raised the official cash rate to a record, pushing consumer confidence to the lowest in more than five years. Slower consumer spending, which makes up 60 percent of the $97 billion economy, will give Bollard scope to cut rates as early as June, said Brendan O'Donovan, chief economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington.
``The consumer has already slowed markedly,'' O'Donovan said. ``By June, the economy will have experienced negligible growth for a full year.''
The economy contracted 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter after growing 0.1 percent in the third quarter. O'Donovan said there is a 50 percent chance the economy contracted in the first quarter, pushing the nation into recession.
Three of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News on April 7 expect Bollard will cut the benchmark interest rate by June 30. Nine expect a cut by Sept. 30 and all 13 expect a reduction this year.
Bollard left the benchmark interest rate at 7.25 percent on March 9, saying household spending had only recently started to wane. He said he wouldn't cut the rate this year unless domestic demand slowed faster than he forecast.
Department Stores
Last week, Kirkcaldie & Stains Ltd., which owns a department store in central Wellington, said pretax profit in its first-half ended Feb. 28 probably fell at least 65 percent from the year earlier as sales slowed.
``The economic outlook includes the possibility there may be further correction of consumer spending'' in the second half, the company said in a statement to the stock exchange.
Consumer confidence fell last month to its lowest since the third quarter of 2000, according to a survey of 1,557 households by Westpac and McDermott Miller Ltd.
To be sure, new car registrations rose 5.8 percent in February from a year earlier and gasoline prices were unchanged from January, according to a report from the Automobile Association Inc, which represents motorists.
Credit-card spending in February rose 8.1 percent from a year earlier, according to central bank figures.
Indicators ``suggest spending growth should be moderating to about average, not down to flat,'' said Craig Ebert, senior markets economist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington.
Bloomberg Survey
The following is a table of forecasts for the change in retail sales in February after adjusting to remove seasonal variations.
Feb.
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Median 0.3%
High 0.5%
Low -0.1%
No. of Replies 13
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ANZ Banking Group 0.3%
ASB Bank 0.2%
Bank of New Zealand 0.0%
Citigroup 0.3%
Deutsche Bank 0.5%
First NZ 0.3%
Goldman Sachs JBWere -0.1%
JPMorgan 0.1%
Macquarie Bank 0.4%
Nomura 0.3%
RBC 0.3%
UBS 0.5%
Westpac 0.1%
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To contact the reporter on this story:
Tracy Withers in Wellington at
twithers@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: April 9, 2006 08:01 EDT
...gli ho detto di lasciar perdere il refosco, almeno a pranzo 
.....già a merenda si può fare 
