T-Bond,T-Note,Bund&others-Quel gran pezzo del Bernakka(v
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
povcaputtana povca tvoia da ieri a stamattina senza adsl
alpin che montagne son quelle?
interessante articolo con i puntini sospensivi minacciosi che tanto piacciano a me nel titolo
The Bond Report
This Time Could Be Different…
As a rule, the bond market is one of the most sophisticated markets going, and one of the world's biggest. Within that particular market, the bond traders are generally noted for their high IQ's as well as for their thick skin. It's a tough business, and now that I think about it, I've never met an "old" bond trader. Many years ago, I went out to lunch with a group of floor traders in New York City and I commented on how relaxed they all seemed. All accept one! He worked the bond pits, and in spite of his somewhat elderly appearance, he was the youngest person at the table. The bond market can also be quite fickle; just ask the Federal Reserve Chairmen, past and present. They've raised rates for months but that didn't always have the desired effect as the bond pit often went against the flow. Now that the Fed is supposedly near the end of its tightening cycle, the bond traders are raising rates like there's no tomorrow.
The Fed's magic number, if such a thing exists, was estimated by many to be 4%. Well the magic number has come and gone, and it now appears that bonds have fully priced in a 5% interest rate - and I really don't see an end in sight. There are some very intelligent individuals like Bill Gross (www.Pimco.com) and John Maudlin (www.2000wave.com) you feel that the Fed will probably go too far in raising rates, and once they see the error of their ways, will quickly reverse course and take rates lower. In particular, Maudlin feels that rates will begin to decline before the end of the year. I'm not so sure! Before I get into all my reasons for taking the opposite side of the argument, I would like to take a look at the following Weekly Chart of the US Treasury Bond:
You'll see that bond prices peaked in July of 2005 and have since made a series of lower highs and lower lows. In March of this year, the bond price broke below the 200-w.m.a., and just last week broke below the bottom band of a long term trend line that has held up since January 2000. All in all, it's quite a bearish picture.
I prefer weekly and monthly charts because they tend to filter out all the day-to-day garbage, but if you were to look at a Daily Chart (go to www.stockcharts.com and punch in $USB), the picture would be considerably more bearish. The first thing that would catch your attention is the fact that we are extremely oversold. Also, the bottom band of the downward sloping trend line was violated last week. Finally, you would see that the 50-d.m.a. crossed below the 200-d.m.a., and bond prices are now trading below both. That's quite bearish and gives a sell signal. As oversold as we are, chances are we'll head lower.
So what is going on here and what are the consequences, intended and otherwise, if bond prices head lower (and inversely interest rates continue to rise)? What happens if I'm wrong? Before we tackle these questions, you have to understand what an interest rate does. Simply put, it is a reflection of risk. Higher rates mean higher risk and vice versa. The United States has historically enjoyed a low risk status and that status was a reflection of the fact that we were the world's largest creditor nation for decades. That changed some years back and we've now become the largest debtor nation the world has ever known. I'm sure Mr. Gross and Mr. Maudlin would both agree that the U.S. is not currently on a path toward fiscal responsibility. Others, like Morgan Stanley's Steven Roach, would probably go so far as to say that our current path could possibly lead to our economic destruction. Presently, the United States requires a daily injection of $2.7 billion of other peoples money in order to exist. Until just recently, there hasn't been a lot of competition for other peoples money as Asia, and Europe to a lesser degree, pursued loose money policies. Japan even went so far as to implement a negative interest rate for a period of months, and that's about as loose as you can get without using a helicopter.
The Federal Reserve has now made fifteen consecutive interest rate hikes and has given the appearance of a tight money policy. As is often the case with the Fed, appearance can be deceiving! The tight money policy of raising rates was more than offset by the loose money policy of printing dollars until the cows come home. Now that the Fed is no longer obliged to publish the M-3 statistics, you can rest assured that the printing press crew will be receiving time and a half for overtime. How can I be so sure? It's really quite simple: gold is telling me that almost on a daily basis. Gold is the only real money out there and it is taking more and more fiat dollars to buy real money every day.
Given everything I've said, what would happen if the Federal Reserve ends its so-called tight money policy and, God forbid, even begins to lower rates? Since the rest of the world is now raising rates, and smart investors are looking for the best return relative to risk, it stands to reason that they'll buy Asian or European debt before they'll buy U.S. debt. Actually that process began some months ago as Central Banks now account for less than 25% of all U.S. bond purchases. Toss in the fact that the U.S. is currently pursuing a reckless fiscal policy, and it's no contest. No one in their right mind would want to loan money to a high risk client for a low return. I'm sorry Mr. Gross, but rates may not be coming down as soon as you think.
Now let's take the other side of the argument and look at what would happen if we continue to raise rates. Given the fact that the U.S. economy is slowing down, you'll push it into a recession, or worse yet a depression. Increasing rates together with and out-of-control money supply is a recipe for stagflation. Additionally, you will also break the backbone of the economy, i.e., the housing market. Personally, I believe that process is already underway. Take a look at the following Daily Chart of the Philadelphia Housing Index ($HGX) and you'll see what I mean:
It is obvious that both RSI and MACD have turned down while the stochastics are now negative, but what is really important is this: the 50-d.m.a. has now crossed below the 200-d.m.a. and, as of Thursday, we are trading below both. I believe that indicates that the top is now in for the housing market, and by implication the U.S. economy as well as the stock market. Furthermore, over the short run, I believe there will be more downside to come as the RSI and MACD are still in neutral territory.
I do not believe it is a coincidence that the bonds as well as the interest rate sensitive HGX have both broken down at the same time. Another index sensitive to rate changes is the Dow Jones Utilities Index ($UTIL), and if I were to post a Daily Chart, you would see a complete break down; far worse than what you see in any chart above, and it began months before the HGX breakdown. This is important because the major turns in the Utilities Index often signal major turns in the economy as well as the DJIA.
I want to take this discussion a bit further now. Real wages for the U.S. consumer have been stagnant now for some time and this is the same consumer drowning in debt. The cost of that debt, if the bond market is any indication, is now rising weekly. Prices are out of control - just look at the CRB Index closing at a record high on Friday for an indication. Let's see now: rising costs, rising prices, and no increase in salaries. At best, that is the road to recession. Until recently, the U.S. consumer was able to bail himself out by refinancing his house. I no longer see that as a viable option. Defaults will increase (they already are), banks will suffer, and things will become ugly. Americans actually have a negative savings rate, the first time since the Depression, and are in no condition to tolerate even the slightest financial impediment. I've learned the hard way that whenever you find yourself in a weak position, unable to endure setbacks, the setback invariably presents itself.
In conclusion, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has a real problem. If he continues to raise rates, he will drive the country deep into recession and, given the massive debt load, even into Depression. On the other hand, if he lowers rates, no one will buy his debt and he'll have to print more and more fiat dollars. Eventually, he'll have to drop the stuff from helicopters and hyperinflation will set in. If the truth be told, it is different this time around. The Fed is out of tools and Bernanke is like a matador about to be gored by the bull, it's just a question of choosing which horn. Although I suspect he'll choose the inflationary horn, the end result is the same, the death of the matador. Unfortunately, the U.S. economy and consumer will be dragged down with him. In the end, you'll see the stock market, the dollar, and the bond market all down hard. Actually, we've seen the beginnings of that process over the last couple of months. The only shelter from the storm will be gold and silver.
Enrico Orlandini
Dow Theory Analysis SAC
Lima, Peru
18 April 2006
1 The U.S. is the only exception: they are raising rates (tight monetary policy) while increasing the money supply (loose monetary policy). That combination can't work forever.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/orlandini041806.html
povcaputtana povca tvoia da ieri a stamattina senza adsl
alpin che montagne son quelle?
interessante articolo con i puntini sospensivi minacciosi che tanto piacciano a me nel titolo
The Bond Report
This Time Could Be Different…
As a rule, the bond market is one of the most sophisticated markets going, and one of the world's biggest. Within that particular market, the bond traders are generally noted for their high IQ's as well as for their thick skin. It's a tough business, and now that I think about it, I've never met an "old" bond trader. Many years ago, I went out to lunch with a group of floor traders in New York City and I commented on how relaxed they all seemed. All accept one! He worked the bond pits, and in spite of his somewhat elderly appearance, he was the youngest person at the table. The bond market can also be quite fickle; just ask the Federal Reserve Chairmen, past and present. They've raised rates for months but that didn't always have the desired effect as the bond pit often went against the flow. Now that the Fed is supposedly near the end of its tightening cycle, the bond traders are raising rates like there's no tomorrow.
The Fed's magic number, if such a thing exists, was estimated by many to be 4%. Well the magic number has come and gone, and it now appears that bonds have fully priced in a 5% interest rate - and I really don't see an end in sight. There are some very intelligent individuals like Bill Gross (www.Pimco.com) and John Maudlin (www.2000wave.com) you feel that the Fed will probably go too far in raising rates, and once they see the error of their ways, will quickly reverse course and take rates lower. In particular, Maudlin feels that rates will begin to decline before the end of the year. I'm not so sure! Before I get into all my reasons for taking the opposite side of the argument, I would like to take a look at the following Weekly Chart of the US Treasury Bond:
You'll see that bond prices peaked in July of 2005 and have since made a series of lower highs and lower lows. In March of this year, the bond price broke below the 200-w.m.a., and just last week broke below the bottom band of a long term trend line that has held up since January 2000. All in all, it's quite a bearish picture.
I prefer weekly and monthly charts because they tend to filter out all the day-to-day garbage, but if you were to look at a Daily Chart (go to www.stockcharts.com and punch in $USB), the picture would be considerably more bearish. The first thing that would catch your attention is the fact that we are extremely oversold. Also, the bottom band of the downward sloping trend line was violated last week. Finally, you would see that the 50-d.m.a. crossed below the 200-d.m.a., and bond prices are now trading below both. That's quite bearish and gives a sell signal. As oversold as we are, chances are we'll head lower.
So what is going on here and what are the consequences, intended and otherwise, if bond prices head lower (and inversely interest rates continue to rise)? What happens if I'm wrong? Before we tackle these questions, you have to understand what an interest rate does. Simply put, it is a reflection of risk. Higher rates mean higher risk and vice versa. The United States has historically enjoyed a low risk status and that status was a reflection of the fact that we were the world's largest creditor nation for decades. That changed some years back and we've now become the largest debtor nation the world has ever known. I'm sure Mr. Gross and Mr. Maudlin would both agree that the U.S. is not currently on a path toward fiscal responsibility. Others, like Morgan Stanley's Steven Roach, would probably go so far as to say that our current path could possibly lead to our economic destruction. Presently, the United States requires a daily injection of $2.7 billion of other peoples money in order to exist. Until just recently, there hasn't been a lot of competition for other peoples money as Asia, and Europe to a lesser degree, pursued loose money policies. Japan even went so far as to implement a negative interest rate for a period of months, and that's about as loose as you can get without using a helicopter.
The Federal Reserve has now made fifteen consecutive interest rate hikes and has given the appearance of a tight money policy. As is often the case with the Fed, appearance can be deceiving! The tight money policy of raising rates was more than offset by the loose money policy of printing dollars until the cows come home. Now that the Fed is no longer obliged to publish the M-3 statistics, you can rest assured that the printing press crew will be receiving time and a half for overtime. How can I be so sure? It's really quite simple: gold is telling me that almost on a daily basis. Gold is the only real money out there and it is taking more and more fiat dollars to buy real money every day.
Given everything I've said, what would happen if the Federal Reserve ends its so-called tight money policy and, God forbid, even begins to lower rates? Since the rest of the world is now raising rates, and smart investors are looking for the best return relative to risk, it stands to reason that they'll buy Asian or European debt before they'll buy U.S. debt. Actually that process began some months ago as Central Banks now account for less than 25% of all U.S. bond purchases. Toss in the fact that the U.S. is currently pursuing a reckless fiscal policy, and it's no contest. No one in their right mind would want to loan money to a high risk client for a low return. I'm sorry Mr. Gross, but rates may not be coming down as soon as you think.
Now let's take the other side of the argument and look at what would happen if we continue to raise rates. Given the fact that the U.S. economy is slowing down, you'll push it into a recession, or worse yet a depression. Increasing rates together with and out-of-control money supply is a recipe for stagflation. Additionally, you will also break the backbone of the economy, i.e., the housing market. Personally, I believe that process is already underway. Take a look at the following Daily Chart of the Philadelphia Housing Index ($HGX) and you'll see what I mean:
It is obvious that both RSI and MACD have turned down while the stochastics are now negative, but what is really important is this: the 50-d.m.a. has now crossed below the 200-d.m.a. and, as of Thursday, we are trading below both. I believe that indicates that the top is now in for the housing market, and by implication the U.S. economy as well as the stock market. Furthermore, over the short run, I believe there will be more downside to come as the RSI and MACD are still in neutral territory.
I do not believe it is a coincidence that the bonds as well as the interest rate sensitive HGX have both broken down at the same time. Another index sensitive to rate changes is the Dow Jones Utilities Index ($UTIL), and if I were to post a Daily Chart, you would see a complete break down; far worse than what you see in any chart above, and it began months before the HGX breakdown. This is important because the major turns in the Utilities Index often signal major turns in the economy as well as the DJIA.
I want to take this discussion a bit further now. Real wages for the U.S. consumer have been stagnant now for some time and this is the same consumer drowning in debt. The cost of that debt, if the bond market is any indication, is now rising weekly. Prices are out of control - just look at the CRB Index closing at a record high on Friday for an indication. Let's see now: rising costs, rising prices, and no increase in salaries. At best, that is the road to recession. Until recently, the U.S. consumer was able to bail himself out by refinancing his house. I no longer see that as a viable option. Defaults will increase (they already are), banks will suffer, and things will become ugly. Americans actually have a negative savings rate, the first time since the Depression, and are in no condition to tolerate even the slightest financial impediment. I've learned the hard way that whenever you find yourself in a weak position, unable to endure setbacks, the setback invariably presents itself.
In conclusion, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has a real problem. If he continues to raise rates, he will drive the country deep into recession and, given the massive debt load, even into Depression. On the other hand, if he lowers rates, no one will buy his debt and he'll have to print more and more fiat dollars. Eventually, he'll have to drop the stuff from helicopters and hyperinflation will set in. If the truth be told, it is different this time around. The Fed is out of tools and Bernanke is like a matador about to be gored by the bull, it's just a question of choosing which horn. Although I suspect he'll choose the inflationary horn, the end result is the same, the death of the matador. Unfortunately, the U.S. economy and consumer will be dragged down with him. In the end, you'll see the stock market, the dollar, and the bond market all down hard. Actually, we've seen the beginnings of that process over the last couple of months. The only shelter from the storm will be gold and silver.
Enrico Orlandini
Dow Theory Analysis SAC
Lima, Peru
18 April 2006
1 The U.S. is the only exception: they are raising rates (tight monetary policy) while increasing the money supply (loose monetary policy). That combination can't work forever.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/orlandini041806.html
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
un par di articolassi sull'argentasso, i grafi da andarsi a vedere sul link
Silver Superspike
Clive Maund
As long-time subscribers to www.clivemaund.com are aware, I have a marked tendency to recommend the sale of things that become extremely overbought, which is generally a reasonable stance as I also have a similar tendency to recommend them long before they get to that state, in accordance with "The Prime Directive", which is to buy low and sell high. Thus, a wide range of silver stocks were recommended for purchase last year and early this year on www.clivemaund.com when they were on the bottom, including Avino Silver & Gold, Coeur d'Alene, ECU Silver, Excellon Resources and Silvercrest Mines.
There are occasions, however, in the markets when humongous "once in a generation" superspikes develop, which are very hard to predict but stand out on the charts for years afterwards like monoliths. In the earlier stages of a superspike it is tempting - and normal - to take profits due to overbought limits having been attained, or exceeded, but these superspikes have no respect for normal parameters, and it is galling to make what seems to be a prudent sale, only to see the item you have sold go from one seemingly crazily overbought extreme to the next.
I'm not easily astonished these days, but I was pulled up sharp early this weekend by a truly astonishing chart sent to me by a very learned and experienced subscriber in California. This chart is reproduced in two sections below - it had to be split in half as an attempt to reduce its size to fit on the page resulted in serious loss of picture quality. The chart is self explanatory and reveals that, although silver is seriously overbought, it is in a similar technical situation to that which prevailed before the incredible superspike in 1979. Could we see a repeat performance? - well, yes, and if what is written about the fundamentals of silver by people such as Ted Butler is true, then we have fundamental justification for it, and some would argue that it could go significantly higher than in 1979.
With special thanks to Claude in California, the annotations and commentary on the chart are his.
Alright, so how, as speculators, do we handle this extraordinary situation? We know we are looking at a market which is already very overbought, but which has a fair chance of generating a super-spike, in defiance of normal overbought parameters, resulting in huge gains. I believe the correct way to handle this situation is to put ourselves in position to make massive profits should this market go ballistic, but, should silver turn tail and go into reverse, losses are kept at a modest and acceptable level.
The correct speculative vehicle for maximising profit potential from this situation, and minimising damage in the event that the silver does not continue higher over the short to medium-term is call options in selected silver stocks. Options have the supreme advantage in the current situation in that they provide massive leverage on capital employed, while strictly limiting losses to the "stake money".
Coeur d'Alene is viewed as the large silver stock with the most upside potential, as it is still at a relatively modest price, and is arcing away from a massive Pan & Handle base, which it is important to note that it hasn't broken out of yet - when it does its rate of advance can be expected to accelerate significantly. This base area was identified a long time back and it was strongly recommended on www.clivemaund.com before the high-volume January breakout from the base. It was recommended to take profits in Coeur about a week ago on the site, but it has not reacted significantly which was considered a danger at the time, and is thus in position for rapid acceleration in the event that the silver spike intensifies. A recommended Traded Option in Coeur is the September 7.50 at 0.75, a good price. The strike price of this option is not much above the current price of the stock, so gains should be immediate if the stock advances. Furthermore, a silver superspike, should it happen, can be expected to occur before the expiry of this option.
Other attractive Traded Option contracts in the large silver stocks are described in the full version of this article in www.clivemaund.com in addition to several silver stocks that look relatively safe here and set to do very well indeed should a superspike develop.
Does what is written here represent an about-face from the cautious stance adopted by the writer some days back? Well, partly, because I don't KNOW whether silver will react here or whether it will continue to accelerate to even more extremely overbought levels. Most reasonable people would agree that a cautious stance at this juncture is quite understandable in view of the fact that the superspike scenario described here is a very rare occurrence - a once in a generation event. The purpose of this article is to outline an effective way to put yourself in position to capitalize on a superspike BIG TIME should it occur, without having to "bet the farm" on it. If you follow the strategy outlined here you will make huge gains if the superspike occurs. If it doesn't, it will cost you, but not very much.
Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis
support@clivemaund.com
www.clivemaund.com
Kaufbeuren, Germany, 16 April 2006
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund041606.html
Bonging the Silver Gong
Charleston Voice
If you think your silver (and gold and copper) stocks and physical holdings of same are safe because you don't play the paper futures and options markets, listen up!
This year, 2006, that gong has been rung five times in a concerted effort to sound the death knell for silver's spectacular rise. So far agents of the banking cartel, the COMEX, CBOT, and NYMEX, have been unable to halt its rise. They did it with natural gas bringing it down from $15 to $6.50, and they can and will do it to silver, gold, and any other commodity that threatens their fiat monetary system. They've stalled silver's rise intermittently, but haven't broken it in an effort to reward their co-conspirators that are not only short, BUT ARE SHORT OVER 700 MILLION OUNCES WHICH IS MORE THAN AN ENTIRE YEAR'S PRODUCTION! Can you imagine the financial horror if they tried to match up these derivative instruments! The Big Bang.
Now, don't get me wrong. We are the good guys, and we're looking to protect ourselves from a deteriorating medium of exchange, paper money. Paper currency that is being printed and distributed at a shameful rate from every government of the world, and puts every person at economic, and eventually political risk.
The most effective weapon in the conspirators' arsenal is the margin requirement tool. Short of outright confiscation, tax schemes, and additional regulations placed upon the free trade transfer of the metals between parties, raising margins is the way to go.
Death to "speculators" they'll tell us! Turn in a silver and gold hoarder and earn yourself a bounty. Not yet, but we're getting there. You see, broken down to the lowest common denominator makes it easy to understand these leveraged markets. Gold and silver are money, and that's why you and I want it. We want to delay our consumption. We're looking to the future. We want to save it as a defensive measure, and not risk our family's economic welfare by trusting paper and ink from a government we no longer trust.
As I outlined in a previous article government interference in our markets is something that will shock and awe even the most resilient investor. Our own government is the biggest manipulator in the world's financial markets, bar none. China's renminbi is child's play.
Below, you'll see the margin increases 2006 to date. I didn't go back through 2005 or earlier. You can do that here. You can go to the "News" tab drop down menu and select the year. What we need for a more meaningful mosaic are the contract volumes alongside the COT numbers. Maybe one of you newsletter gurus out there can spend some of your subscriber's money and put this together. It may keep your subscribers solvent so they can re-subscribe for another year.
We won't know the tipping point in the price until it happens. But, be assured you won't win, and will be fortunate to escape with your initial investment. This is an election year and rising silver and gold prices are a clear and understandable tip-off to even the most stupid voter that "inflation" is robbing him of his quality of life. The incumbent's re-election comes way ahead of your welfare.
Yes, you and I know we're right about a critical shortage of silver. But, if you're leveraged (outside of physical silver) beyond common sense you won't be with us to enjoy the runaway blastoff. Think of that image of the downward silver plunge of 1980, and you'll get my meaning. You don't want to be on the downward slope of anything resembling that, even if it's only a toboggan ride from $13 to $9!
----------------------------Also by Charleston Voice
Silver Margins
Charleston Voice
I went back to 2000 to obtain the NYMEX silver futures margin requirements history. They are indicated on the following chart. London PM price fixings for the corresponding dates are:
04/27/00 - $4.98
01/08/04 - $6.20
02/19/04 - $6.62
04/06/04 - $8.14
09/16/05 - $7.08 << margin decrease
11/28/05 - $8.27
01/10/06 - $9.04
01/27/06 - $9.69
03/07/06- $10.00
04/04/06-$11.75
04/12/06-$12.75
As anyone can see the pace and frequency of increases has become compressed now with five coming in just the past 4 months. A sense of urgency now prevails. For the years 2000 thru 2005 there were but five increases for this entire 60 month period. One indicated decrease in September '05....isn't that about the time silver began its serious liftoff? Gold futures got a margin decrease from $2,025 to $1,350 on 5/13/05 which could have given underlying support to gold's bull run beginning in early May '05. As you can see they gave no help to silver in the period 2000 thru 2004, content and gleeful that it drifted lower.
So, what does all this mean to us silver bugs?
In my opinion it reveals a sinister and self-serving mechanism is employed to serve the special banking interests. Margin decreases and increases act upon commodities as a collorary to the Fed Funds rate as another tool to expand and contract credit. Margins are able to manipulate the availability and supply of goods to the consumer.
Following the Katrina debacle futures margins were increased dramatically for the energy complex, notably natural gas. By doing so the government crushed prices, but more important restricted the necessary investment sources to ensure adequate supplies in the future. This same meddling mindset currently prevails for silver. Margin increases will suppress the exploration for new mines and development. In effect, they are aggravating an already critical shortage of physical silver. During Katrina (but not 9/11) a force majeure was declared for existing energy contracts. Will this same justified escape hatch be twisted and used to compensate the bankers when the derivative bomb detonates? Yes.
You may have noticed, but in the same CBOT margin increase announcement on silver there were changes to some of the "soft", ie, agricultural commodities. I am not a futures expert by any means, but it appears they are lowering the margins for selected items. I could guess that it's a maneuver to attract hedge fund and investor funds away from precious metals into other areas. Whatever their motives, we should all be outraged that they are meddling and trying to manage our food supplies. People will turn to collectibles of all sorts for haven. In the 70s/80s it was comic books, rare coins, and baseball cards. Antiques and art soared. Real estate plunged as interest rates went higher and higher.
Slamming silver now will simply delay the day of reckoning - just as another hurricane will wreak havoc on our energy supplies again - more silver will not be brought into the supply chain. Mining operating expenses will not be counterbalanced by a predictable and rising price for their gold or silver. They'll know that with each bull cycle move the banking cartel is there ready to knock it back down. How does a miner work his plan with a regulatory environment like this? We are being forced to live and cope with perpetual crises not of our own making.
This is how paper controls the metals, but at some point their system will break down. In an environment which is closing in on hyperinflation our financial markets will be overcome. Their methods will cause shortages in critical commodities. No amount of margin will be high enough to halt silver's explosion. They may have to shut down their paper market, but physical will be nearly unobtainable at any price in dollars. Price controls will be tried again. Some of you will recall your experiences of the '70s when brown supermarket bags disappeared along with, of all things - toilet paper!
So, that's what rising margin requirements on silver futures mean; the real McCoy, certified and genuine silver bugs have the real thing.
And toilet paper.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/charlestonvoice041606.html
Silver Superspike
Clive Maund
As long-time subscribers to www.clivemaund.com are aware, I have a marked tendency to recommend the sale of things that become extremely overbought, which is generally a reasonable stance as I also have a similar tendency to recommend them long before they get to that state, in accordance with "The Prime Directive", which is to buy low and sell high. Thus, a wide range of silver stocks were recommended for purchase last year and early this year on www.clivemaund.com when they were on the bottom, including Avino Silver & Gold, Coeur d'Alene, ECU Silver, Excellon Resources and Silvercrest Mines.
There are occasions, however, in the markets when humongous "once in a generation" superspikes develop, which are very hard to predict but stand out on the charts for years afterwards like monoliths. In the earlier stages of a superspike it is tempting - and normal - to take profits due to overbought limits having been attained, or exceeded, but these superspikes have no respect for normal parameters, and it is galling to make what seems to be a prudent sale, only to see the item you have sold go from one seemingly crazily overbought extreme to the next.
I'm not easily astonished these days, but I was pulled up sharp early this weekend by a truly astonishing chart sent to me by a very learned and experienced subscriber in California. This chart is reproduced in two sections below - it had to be split in half as an attempt to reduce its size to fit on the page resulted in serious loss of picture quality. The chart is self explanatory and reveals that, although silver is seriously overbought, it is in a similar technical situation to that which prevailed before the incredible superspike in 1979. Could we see a repeat performance? - well, yes, and if what is written about the fundamentals of silver by people such as Ted Butler is true, then we have fundamental justification for it, and some would argue that it could go significantly higher than in 1979.
With special thanks to Claude in California, the annotations and commentary on the chart are his.
Alright, so how, as speculators, do we handle this extraordinary situation? We know we are looking at a market which is already very overbought, but which has a fair chance of generating a super-spike, in defiance of normal overbought parameters, resulting in huge gains. I believe the correct way to handle this situation is to put ourselves in position to make massive profits should this market go ballistic, but, should silver turn tail and go into reverse, losses are kept at a modest and acceptable level.
The correct speculative vehicle for maximising profit potential from this situation, and minimising damage in the event that the silver does not continue higher over the short to medium-term is call options in selected silver stocks. Options have the supreme advantage in the current situation in that they provide massive leverage on capital employed, while strictly limiting losses to the "stake money".
Coeur d'Alene is viewed as the large silver stock with the most upside potential, as it is still at a relatively modest price, and is arcing away from a massive Pan & Handle base, which it is important to note that it hasn't broken out of yet - when it does its rate of advance can be expected to accelerate significantly. This base area was identified a long time back and it was strongly recommended on www.clivemaund.com before the high-volume January breakout from the base. It was recommended to take profits in Coeur about a week ago on the site, but it has not reacted significantly which was considered a danger at the time, and is thus in position for rapid acceleration in the event that the silver spike intensifies. A recommended Traded Option in Coeur is the September 7.50 at 0.75, a good price. The strike price of this option is not much above the current price of the stock, so gains should be immediate if the stock advances. Furthermore, a silver superspike, should it happen, can be expected to occur before the expiry of this option.
Other attractive Traded Option contracts in the large silver stocks are described in the full version of this article in www.clivemaund.com in addition to several silver stocks that look relatively safe here and set to do very well indeed should a superspike develop.
Does what is written here represent an about-face from the cautious stance adopted by the writer some days back? Well, partly, because I don't KNOW whether silver will react here or whether it will continue to accelerate to even more extremely overbought levels. Most reasonable people would agree that a cautious stance at this juncture is quite understandable in view of the fact that the superspike scenario described here is a very rare occurrence - a once in a generation event. The purpose of this article is to outline an effective way to put yourself in position to capitalize on a superspike BIG TIME should it occur, without having to "bet the farm" on it. If you follow the strategy outlined here you will make huge gains if the superspike occurs. If it doesn't, it will cost you, but not very much.
Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis
support@clivemaund.com
www.clivemaund.com
Kaufbeuren, Germany, 16 April 2006
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund041606.html
Bonging the Silver Gong
Charleston Voice
If you think your silver (and gold and copper) stocks and physical holdings of same are safe because you don't play the paper futures and options markets, listen up!
This year, 2006, that gong has been rung five times in a concerted effort to sound the death knell for silver's spectacular rise. So far agents of the banking cartel, the COMEX, CBOT, and NYMEX, have been unable to halt its rise. They did it with natural gas bringing it down from $15 to $6.50, and they can and will do it to silver, gold, and any other commodity that threatens their fiat monetary system. They've stalled silver's rise intermittently, but haven't broken it in an effort to reward their co-conspirators that are not only short, BUT ARE SHORT OVER 700 MILLION OUNCES WHICH IS MORE THAN AN ENTIRE YEAR'S PRODUCTION! Can you imagine the financial horror if they tried to match up these derivative instruments! The Big Bang.
Now, don't get me wrong. We are the good guys, and we're looking to protect ourselves from a deteriorating medium of exchange, paper money. Paper currency that is being printed and distributed at a shameful rate from every government of the world, and puts every person at economic, and eventually political risk.
The most effective weapon in the conspirators' arsenal is the margin requirement tool. Short of outright confiscation, tax schemes, and additional regulations placed upon the free trade transfer of the metals between parties, raising margins is the way to go.
Death to "speculators" they'll tell us! Turn in a silver and gold hoarder and earn yourself a bounty. Not yet, but we're getting there. You see, broken down to the lowest common denominator makes it easy to understand these leveraged markets. Gold and silver are money, and that's why you and I want it. We want to delay our consumption. We're looking to the future. We want to save it as a defensive measure, and not risk our family's economic welfare by trusting paper and ink from a government we no longer trust.
As I outlined in a previous article government interference in our markets is something that will shock and awe even the most resilient investor. Our own government is the biggest manipulator in the world's financial markets, bar none. China's renminbi is child's play.
Below, you'll see the margin increases 2006 to date. I didn't go back through 2005 or earlier. You can do that here. You can go to the "News" tab drop down menu and select the year. What we need for a more meaningful mosaic are the contract volumes alongside the COT numbers. Maybe one of you newsletter gurus out there can spend some of your subscriber's money and put this together. It may keep your subscribers solvent so they can re-subscribe for another year.
We won't know the tipping point in the price until it happens. But, be assured you won't win, and will be fortunate to escape with your initial investment. This is an election year and rising silver and gold prices are a clear and understandable tip-off to even the most stupid voter that "inflation" is robbing him of his quality of life. The incumbent's re-election comes way ahead of your welfare.
Yes, you and I know we're right about a critical shortage of silver. But, if you're leveraged (outside of physical silver) beyond common sense you won't be with us to enjoy the runaway blastoff. Think of that image of the downward silver plunge of 1980, and you'll get my meaning. You don't want to be on the downward slope of anything resembling that, even if it's only a toboggan ride from $13 to $9!
----------------------------Also by Charleston Voice
Silver Margins
Charleston Voice
I went back to 2000 to obtain the NYMEX silver futures margin requirements history. They are indicated on the following chart. London PM price fixings for the corresponding dates are:
04/27/00 - $4.98
01/08/04 - $6.20
02/19/04 - $6.62
04/06/04 - $8.14
09/16/05 - $7.08 << margin decrease
11/28/05 - $8.27
01/10/06 - $9.04
01/27/06 - $9.69
03/07/06- $10.00
04/04/06-$11.75
04/12/06-$12.75
As anyone can see the pace and frequency of increases has become compressed now with five coming in just the past 4 months. A sense of urgency now prevails. For the years 2000 thru 2005 there were but five increases for this entire 60 month period. One indicated decrease in September '05....isn't that about the time silver began its serious liftoff? Gold futures got a margin decrease from $2,025 to $1,350 on 5/13/05 which could have given underlying support to gold's bull run beginning in early May '05. As you can see they gave no help to silver in the period 2000 thru 2004, content and gleeful that it drifted lower.
So, what does all this mean to us silver bugs?
In my opinion it reveals a sinister and self-serving mechanism is employed to serve the special banking interests. Margin decreases and increases act upon commodities as a collorary to the Fed Funds rate as another tool to expand and contract credit. Margins are able to manipulate the availability and supply of goods to the consumer.
Following the Katrina debacle futures margins were increased dramatically for the energy complex, notably natural gas. By doing so the government crushed prices, but more important restricted the necessary investment sources to ensure adequate supplies in the future. This same meddling mindset currently prevails for silver. Margin increases will suppress the exploration for new mines and development. In effect, they are aggravating an already critical shortage of physical silver. During Katrina (but not 9/11) a force majeure was declared for existing energy contracts. Will this same justified escape hatch be twisted and used to compensate the bankers when the derivative bomb detonates? Yes.
You may have noticed, but in the same CBOT margin increase announcement on silver there were changes to some of the "soft", ie, agricultural commodities. I am not a futures expert by any means, but it appears they are lowering the margins for selected items. I could guess that it's a maneuver to attract hedge fund and investor funds away from precious metals into other areas. Whatever their motives, we should all be outraged that they are meddling and trying to manage our food supplies. People will turn to collectibles of all sorts for haven. In the 70s/80s it was comic books, rare coins, and baseball cards. Antiques and art soared. Real estate plunged as interest rates went higher and higher.
Slamming silver now will simply delay the day of reckoning - just as another hurricane will wreak havoc on our energy supplies again - more silver will not be brought into the supply chain. Mining operating expenses will not be counterbalanced by a predictable and rising price for their gold or silver. They'll know that with each bull cycle move the banking cartel is there ready to knock it back down. How does a miner work his plan with a regulatory environment like this? We are being forced to live and cope with perpetual crises not of our own making.
This is how paper controls the metals, but at some point their system will break down. In an environment which is closing in on hyperinflation our financial markets will be overcome. Their methods will cause shortages in critical commodities. No amount of margin will be high enough to halt silver's explosion. They may have to shut down their paper market, but physical will be nearly unobtainable at any price in dollars. Price controls will be tried again. Some of you will recall your experiences of the '70s when brown supermarket bags disappeared along with, of all things - toilet paper!
So, that's what rising margin requirements on silver futures mean; the real McCoy, certified and genuine silver bugs have the real thing.
And toilet paper.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/charlestonvoice041606.html
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Grazie Fleur, tutti molto interessanti 
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
figurati cara 
COT t-bronx con posizioni net long dei commercial ogni settimana in nuovo record
sul 10y invece i funds sono long, replicando in grande il mio spread piccino
ieri OI T-Bronx in aumento di 7k sul rimbalzo tecnico
COT t-bronx con posizioni net long dei commercial ogni settimana in nuovo record
sul 10y invece i funds sono long, replicando in grande il mio spread piccino
ieri OI T-Bronx in aumento di 7k sul rimbalzo tecnico
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
f4f ha scritto:goood morning bbbanda
povka puttana povca tvoia il mio stranglr va a fangkiul
'merikans di mierda
povca puttàna povca tvoia la tua improvvisa presenza mi rammenta di essermi scordato di farti gli auguri blame on me
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
T-bronx agony , ogni rimbalzo è buono per caricarlo di short -- test dei minimi 3 a 107 con s2 daily incorporata , sotto si va per la s2 weekly 106,5625 - 105 il supporto per il medio
lo spread 30-10 in pieno collasso
qui si va a mazzolare pesantemente i piallatori di curva 
lo spread 30-10 in pieno collasso
qui si va a mazzolare pesantemente i piallatori di curva gastronomo
Forumer storico
Benturnaaa avucaaat - Fleur, mi posti qualcosa su aus nz che oggi vedo aus un pò troppo tonico... grassie
- Fleur, mi posti qualcosa su aus nz che oggi vedo aus un pò troppo tonico... grassie Similar threads
