Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bronx5Y-10Y-Bund .. il ritorno del figliol prodigo (vm18) (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione ditropan
- Data di Inizio
frank73
OPTION TRADER
Francamente non vedo possibilità di storno sull'azionario,anzi lo scenario ogni giorno che passa è sempre piu confermato bond giu equity su,commodities giu,e annessi e connessi sui cross valutari.
Mantengo le put bund prese a 118.50 attendo beige book per valutare meglio qualsivoglia intervento .
Ciao
Mantengo le put bund prese a 118.50 attendo beige book per valutare meglio qualsivoglia intervento .
Ciao
ditropan
Forumer storico
Giorno BBanda !! 
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Situazione spread Soyben meal vs Wheat :
Ricordo che lo spread era bilanciato con ogni lotto composto da :
3 contratti long su Soymeal
2 contratti short su Wheat
Io poi avevo introdotto una variante in cui, invece di fare spread sulla stessa scadenza usavo il soymeal scadenza luglio 2007 ed il wheat scadenza dicembre 2006; la motivazione era che mi attendevo un calo dei prezzi sul wheat da quì a novembre ed una ripartenza successiva della soia e suoi derivati a partire del nuovo anno e nova stagionalità sui grains.
Il contratto di soymeal sarebbe quindi rimasto in carico per il nuovo anno, in quanto prevedevo di chiudere solo il wheat.
Le cose purtroppo sono andate in senso completamente opposto, il wheat si è fatto un rally bello potente e la farina di soia praticamente non ha coperto un granchè ... la situazione è dunque questa ...
... spread tiratissimo e marginazione a go go ! 
... siccome io non demordo e su questo spread nutro buone aspettative vediamo di considerare già fino ad ora la possibilità di rollaggi e di fare alcuni ragionamenti :
In questi ultimi 2 giorni il wheat è passato in backwardation dal contango di settimana scorsa, in pratica il dicembre è salito molto più delle altre scadenze, un eventuale rollaggio su luglio 2007 comportere quindi una perdita di punti rispetto a settimana scorsa, così pure un rollaggio su marzo 2007.
La perdita però risulterebbe minore rollando su marzo (WH7) che su luglio (WN7).
Se consideriamo che con il contratto scadenza marzo 2007 arriviamo (a livello di contrattazione) fino a fine febbraio (FND), e che solitamente nel mese di gennaio-febbraio le quotazioni sui grains tendono a cedere per via del february-break; inoltre quest'anno partiamo da livelli di quotazione abbastanza elevati per essere ad ottobre, le possibilità che questa debolezza si verifichi dovrebbero essere buone.
Altro punto a favore poi è che in questo momento il premium-risk associato al wheat per via della speculazione sul raccolto australiano è divenuto molto elevato, abbiamo già scontato un macello di cattive notizie ... ed il grano invernale deve ancora essere seminato !
Tutto questo mi fà ancora ben sperare su un'esito positivo dello spread da adesso a febbraio, non dovessimo rientrare per fine novembre se le cose si mantengono così si potrà semplicemente rollare solo i contratti sul wheat da dicembre a scadenza marzo 2007, migliorando pure un pò la posizione visto che sul wheat di marzo c'è ancora contango ...
*************************************++
***************************************
Situazione spread Soyben meal vs Wheat :
Ricordo che lo spread era bilanciato con ogni lotto composto da :
3 contratti long su Soymeal
2 contratti short su Wheat
Io poi avevo introdotto una variante in cui, invece di fare spread sulla stessa scadenza usavo il soymeal scadenza luglio 2007 ed il wheat scadenza dicembre 2006; la motivazione era che mi attendevo un calo dei prezzi sul wheat da quì a novembre ed una ripartenza successiva della soia e suoi derivati a partire del nuovo anno e nova stagionalità sui grains.
Il contratto di soymeal sarebbe quindi rimasto in carico per il nuovo anno, in quanto prevedevo di chiudere solo il wheat.
Le cose purtroppo sono andate in senso completamente opposto, il wheat si è fatto un rally bello potente e la farina di soia praticamente non ha coperto un granchè ... la situazione è dunque questa ...
... spread tiratissimo e marginazione a go go !
... siccome io non demordo e su questo spread nutro buone aspettative vediamo di considerare già fino ad ora la possibilità di rollaggi e di fare alcuni ragionamenti :
In questi ultimi 2 giorni il wheat è passato in backwardation dal contango di settimana scorsa, in pratica il dicembre è salito molto più delle altre scadenze, un eventuale rollaggio su luglio 2007 comportere quindi una perdita di punti rispetto a settimana scorsa, così pure un rollaggio su marzo 2007.
La perdita però risulterebbe minore rollando su marzo (WH7) che su luglio (WN7).
Se consideriamo che con il contratto scadenza marzo 2007 arriviamo (a livello di contrattazione) fino a fine febbraio (FND), e che solitamente nel mese di gennaio-febbraio le quotazioni sui grains tendono a cedere per via del february-break; inoltre quest'anno partiamo da livelli di quotazione abbastanza elevati per essere ad ottobre, le possibilità che questa debolezza si verifichi dovrebbero essere buone.
Altro punto a favore poi è che in questo momento il premium-risk associato al wheat per via della speculazione sul raccolto australiano è divenuto molto elevato, abbiamo già scontato un macello di cattive notizie ... ed il grano invernale deve ancora essere seminato !
Tutto questo mi fà ancora ben sperare su un'esito positivo dello spread da adesso a febbraio, non dovessimo rientrare per fine novembre se le cose si mantengono così si potrà semplicemente rollare solo i contratti sul wheat da dicembre a scadenza marzo 2007, migliorando pure un pò la posizione visto che sul wheat di marzo c'è ancora contango ...
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Early Winners & Losers
By Rob Lenihan
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
10/11/2006 7:20 AM EDT
Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take) tumbled in after-hours trading Tuesday after the aluminum company posted third-quarter earnings that were short of Wall Street's expectations. The company earned $537 million, or 61 cents a share, compared with $289 million, or 33 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue increased 19% from a year ago to $7.6 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were looking for earnings of 79 cents a share on revenue of $7.68 billion. Shares were trading down $1.99, or about 7%, to $26.30.
ECC Capital (ECR - commentary - Cramer's Take) soared after the Irvine, Calif.-based REIT said Bear Stearns Residential Mortgage, a subsidiary of Bear Stearns (BSC - commentary - Cramer's Take), agreed to buy the subprime mortgage origination platform of ECC Capital's subsidiary, Encore Credit, for about $26 million in cash and the assumption of certain lease liabilities.
Encore Credit, specializing in subprime mortgage origination, will operate as a separate division of Bear Stearns Residential Mortgage. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2006; within 30 days after the close of the transaction, ECC Capital said it expects to make an initial distribution to stockholders of about 80 cents a share. Shares were climbing 26 cents, or 25%, to $1.30.
Legg Mason (LM - commentary - Cramer's Take) dropped after the Baltimore-based asset manager warned of a steep earnings shortfall, citing a weaker-than-expected showing in September. The company said it expects to make 96 cents to $1.02 a share, far shy of the $1.16-a-share Wall Street's estimate.
Legg Mason said revenue fell 1% from second-quarter levels, as the asset mix shifted toward lower revenue-generating fixed income assets. Legg Mason was also hit to the tune of 4 cents a share by what it called "unanticipated mutual fund distribution fee expenses payable by our acquired business to our principal third-party distributor that relate to prior quarters." Legg Mason bought Citigroup's asset management arm in December 2005.
Legg Mason estimates that assets under management as of Sept. 30 were $890 billion (50% fixed income, 35% equity and 15% liquidity). Assets under management at June 30 were $855 billion. The company also confirmed that its integration of the Citigroup business remains on schedule and that it continues to expect to achieve the previously announced cost savings from that integration. Shares were dropping $9.76, or 9.27%, to $95.55.
Navarre (NAVR - commentary - Cramer's Take) retreated after the New Hope, Minn.-based video game publisher said that it would take a charge of about 3 cents a share in the second quarter as a result of Tower Records' Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The Tower Records chain closed after it was bought by the Los Angeles-based Great American Group for $134.3 million. The company plans to liquidate the music retailer. An attorney for Tower Records said the company will be sold for an aggregate of $150 million, including the sale of various leases and properties, the Associated Press reported. Shares fell 25 cents, or about 6%, to $3.95.
Nobility Homes (NOBH - commentary - Cramer's Take) gained after the Ocala, Fla.-based manufactured-homes company said a special committee of its board of directors chose the investment banking firm of Savvian Advisors to assist the committee in exploring strategic alternatives for the company. Savvian Advisors is expected to begin its analysis on Wednesday. Nobility Homes said the board approved the hiring of an investment banking firm to explore available strategic alternatives primarily as a result of the increasing costs related to Sarbanes-Oxley 404 compliance and other costs of being a public company. Shares were trading up $1.16, or 4.3%, to $28.
By Rob Lenihan
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
10/11/2006 7:20 AM EDT
Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take) tumbled in after-hours trading Tuesday after the aluminum company posted third-quarter earnings that were short of Wall Street's expectations. The company earned $537 million, or 61 cents a share, compared with $289 million, or 33 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue increased 19% from a year ago to $7.6 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were looking for earnings of 79 cents a share on revenue of $7.68 billion. Shares were trading down $1.99, or about 7%, to $26.30.
ECC Capital (ECR - commentary - Cramer's Take) soared after the Irvine, Calif.-based REIT said Bear Stearns Residential Mortgage, a subsidiary of Bear Stearns (BSC - commentary - Cramer's Take), agreed to buy the subprime mortgage origination platform of ECC Capital's subsidiary, Encore Credit, for about $26 million in cash and the assumption of certain lease liabilities.
Encore Credit, specializing in subprime mortgage origination, will operate as a separate division of Bear Stearns Residential Mortgage. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2006; within 30 days after the close of the transaction, ECC Capital said it expects to make an initial distribution to stockholders of about 80 cents a share. Shares were climbing 26 cents, or 25%, to $1.30.
Legg Mason (LM - commentary - Cramer's Take) dropped after the Baltimore-based asset manager warned of a steep earnings shortfall, citing a weaker-than-expected showing in September. The company said it expects to make 96 cents to $1.02 a share, far shy of the $1.16-a-share Wall Street's estimate.
Legg Mason said revenue fell 1% from second-quarter levels, as the asset mix shifted toward lower revenue-generating fixed income assets. Legg Mason was also hit to the tune of 4 cents a share by what it called "unanticipated mutual fund distribution fee expenses payable by our acquired business to our principal third-party distributor that relate to prior quarters." Legg Mason bought Citigroup's asset management arm in December 2005.
Legg Mason estimates that assets under management as of Sept. 30 were $890 billion (50% fixed income, 35% equity and 15% liquidity). Assets under management at June 30 were $855 billion. The company also confirmed that its integration of the Citigroup business remains on schedule and that it continues to expect to achieve the previously announced cost savings from that integration. Shares were dropping $9.76, or 9.27%, to $95.55.
Navarre (NAVR - commentary - Cramer's Take) retreated after the New Hope, Minn.-based video game publisher said that it would take a charge of about 3 cents a share in the second quarter as a result of Tower Records' Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The Tower Records chain closed after it was bought by the Los Angeles-based Great American Group for $134.3 million. The company plans to liquidate the music retailer. An attorney for Tower Records said the company will be sold for an aggregate of $150 million, including the sale of various leases and properties, the Associated Press reported. Shares fell 25 cents, or about 6%, to $3.95.
Nobility Homes (NOBH - commentary - Cramer's Take) gained after the Ocala, Fla.-based manufactured-homes company said a special committee of its board of directors chose the investment banking firm of Savvian Advisors to assist the committee in exploring strategic alternatives for the company. Savvian Advisors is expected to begin its analysis on Wednesday. Nobility Homes said the board approved the hiring of an investment banking firm to explore available strategic alternatives primarily as a result of the increasing costs related to Sarbanes-Oxley 404 compliance and other costs of being a public company. Shares were trading up $1.16, or 4.3%, to $28.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Media General third-quarter profit $20.6 mln vs. $9.8 mln
Last Update: 7:41 AM ET Oct 11, 2006
Last: 38.00-0.18-0.47%
4:15am 10/11/2006
MEG38.00, -0.18, -0.5%) Wednesday reported third-quarter earnings of $20.6 million, or 87 cents a share, up from a year-ago profit of $9.8 million, or 41 cents a share. The latest results include a gain of $11.8 million, or 50 cents a share, related to the sale of several CBS television stations. Excluding the gain, the Richmond, Va., company, which has newspaper, television and interactive media assets, said it earned $8.8 million, or 37 cents a share, in the latest quarter. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of 44 cents a share in the third quarter. The company said third-quarter results were impacted by lower profit from its publishing division and additional stock option expense of $1.4 million. Revenue rose 14.3% in the latest three months to $241 million from $210.9 million in the same period a year earlier. Looking ahead, the company said it expects revenue growth of 5% to 7% from its publishing division in the fourth quarter. It anticipates an increase of 70% in gross time sales from its broadcast division in the fourth quarter. The stock closed Tuesday at $38, down 18 cents.
Last Update: 7:41 AM ET Oct 11, 2006
Last: 38.00-0.18-0.47%
4:15am 10/11/2006
MEG38.00, -0.18, -0.5%) Wednesday reported third-quarter earnings of $20.6 million, or 87 cents a share, up from a year-ago profit of $9.8 million, or 41 cents a share. The latest results include a gain of $11.8 million, or 50 cents a share, related to the sale of several CBS television stations. Excluding the gain, the Richmond, Va., company, which has newspaper, television and interactive media assets, said it earned $8.8 million, or 37 cents a share, in the latest quarter. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of 44 cents a share in the third quarter. The company said third-quarter results were impacted by lower profit from its publishing division and additional stock option expense of $1.4 million. Revenue rose 14.3% in the latest three months to $241 million from $210.9 million in the same period a year earlier. Looking ahead, the company said it expects revenue growth of 5% to 7% from its publishing division in the fourth quarter. It anticipates an increase of 70% in gross time sales from its broadcast division in the fourth quarter. The stock closed Tuesday at $38, down 18 cents.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
ServiceMaster lowers third-quarter, full year earnings view
Last Update: 7:23 AM ET Oct 11, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) --
4:15am 10/11/2006
SVM11.45, 0.00, 0.0%) Wednesday lowered its earnings outlook for the third quarter and full year, citing the adverse impact of historically warm weather on its business. The Downers Grove, Ill., provider of lawn care and pest control services said it anticipates earnings from continuing operations of 59 to 61 cents per share for the year and 20 to 21 cents per share for the third quarter. Excluding items, it sees earnings for the year of 61 to 63 cents a share. The current average estimates of analysts polled by Thomson First Call are for profits of 66 cents a share for the year and 25 cents a share in the September quarter. The stock closed Tuesday unchanged at $11.45.
Last Update: 7:23 AM ET Oct 11, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) --
4:15am 10/11/2006
SVM11.45, 0.00, 0.0%) Wednesday lowered its earnings outlook for the third quarter and full year, citing the adverse impact of historically warm weather on its business. The Downers Grove, Ill., provider of lawn care and pest control services said it anticipates earnings from continuing operations of 59 to 61 cents per share for the year and 20 to 21 cents per share for the third quarter. Excluding items, it sees earnings for the year of 61 to 63 cents a share. The current average estimates of analysts polled by Thomson First Call are for profits of 66 cents a share for the year and 25 cents a share in the September quarter. The stock closed Tuesday unchanged at $11.45.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Reuters
Monsanto posts bigger loss for 4th qtr
Wednesday October 11, 8:18 am ET
KANSAS CITY, Missouri (Reuters)- Monsanto Co. (NYSE:MON - News) said on Wednesday it posted a bigger quarterly per-share loss due to slowed sales of its biotech seed technology.
The St. Louis-based agricultural products company, an industry leader in genetically altering crops to resist pests and tolerate weed-killing treatments, lost 27 cents a share on an as-reported basis in the fourth quarter ended August 31, compared to a loss of 23 cents a share a year earlier.
Monsanto posts bigger loss for 4th qtr
Wednesday October 11, 8:18 am ET
KANSAS CITY, Missouri (Reuters)- Monsanto Co. (NYSE:MON - News) said on Wednesday it posted a bigger quarterly per-share loss due to slowed sales of its biotech seed technology.
The St. Louis-based agricultural products company, an industry leader in genetically altering crops to resist pests and tolerate weed-killing treatments, lost 27 cents a share on an as-reported basis in the fourth quarter ended August 31, compared to a loss of 23 cents a share a year earlier.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Fastenal third-quarter earnings $54.1 mln vs $46 mln
Last Update: 8:00 AM ET Oct 11, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Fastenal Inc. (FAST : Fastenal Company
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 40.46+0.62+1.56%
FAST40.46, +0.62, +1.6%) Wednesday reported third-quarter earnings of $54.1 million, or 36 cents a share, up from a year-ago profit of $46 million, or 30 cents a share. Sales rose 17% in the latest three months to $470.1 million from $402.2 million in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of 35 cents a share on revenue of $470.8 million in the September period. Shares of the Winona, Minn., supplier of fastener products, such as bolts, nuts and screws, closed Tuesday at $40.46, up 1.6%.
Last Update: 8:00 AM ET Oct 11, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Fastenal Inc. (FAST : Fastenal Company
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 40.46+0.62+1.56%
FAST40.46, +0.62, +1.6%) Wednesday reported third-quarter earnings of $54.1 million, or 36 cents a share, up from a year-ago profit of $46 million, or 30 cents a share. Sales rose 17% in the latest three months to $470.1 million from $402.2 million in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of 35 cents a share on revenue of $470.8 million in the September period. Shares of the Winona, Minn., supplier of fastener products, such as bolts, nuts and screws, closed Tuesday at $40.46, up 1.6%.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
nonostante maxi-formattata nada da fà, alla partenza sempre stesso problema , invece di 3giga ne legge 1,25 , dopo un paio di riavvii tutto ok ma nel frattempo mi collassa java o microsoft jv
nessuno riesce a capire il perchè; alpinnnnnnnnnn fai luce :idea:
Adieu
nonostante maxi-formattata nada da fà, alla partenza sempre stesso problema , invece di 3giga ne legge 1,25 , dopo un paio di riavvii tutto ok ma nel frattempo mi collassa java o microsoft jv
nessuno riesce a capire il perchè; alpinnnnnnnnnn fai luce :idea: Adieu
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Fleursdumal ha scritto:Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
nonostante maxi-formattata nada da fà, alla partenza sempre stesso problema , invece di 3giga ne legge 1,25 , dopo un paio di riavvii tutto ok ma nel frattempo mi collassa java o microsoft jv
Adieu
Azzz....