TBOND-BUND-EUROSTOX-FIBMERD fine del capitalismo(V.M.98anni)

[f4f]

Jim Rogers: Euro will disappear in 15-20 years
Sunday, November 5, 2006

SEOUL - Reuters


The euro will disappear within 20 years because of the inability of member states to stick to the rules underpinning the European Union's single currency, prominent U.S. investor Jim Rogers predicted.

“The euro is not going to survive in my view,” Rogers said in an interview with Reuters in Seoul. “I own the euro, but I don't expect it to be around in 15 to 20 years,” he added.

Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, called the currency used by 12 EU countries a “political” currency, not an economic one. This, he said, would be its undoing.

“Most of the members are not abiding by the terms of the Maastricht Treaty ... Everybody is either changing the rules, or ignoring the rules, or fudging the rules,” he said, referring to the 1992 treaty that led to the creation of the euro.

The U.S. investor, known for his bullish stance on commodities, also pointed to history to back his prediction.

“No currency union has ever survived in history. No free trade pact has survived in history,” he said.

Rogers was in Seoul to give a speech at the Korea Exchange Global Investor Forum.

He stuck to his bearish view on the dollar and even predicted that its days as the world's reserve currency might be numbered.

China's yuan could potentially grow into the world's reserve currency, but only if it becomes freely convertible and if China opens its economy more widely.

“It does have the size and the liquidity and the size of the economy, potentially,” Rogers said, adding that it was the only currency with the chance of supplanting the dollar within 10 to 15 years.

In a wide-ranging interview, Rogers said the United States was headed for a deep recession because of weakness in the housing market and the large debts it has incurred.

“The U.S. is unbelievably leveraged, over-extended financially and economically, so eventually we are bound to have a serious economic setback,” he said.

Rogers urged investors to switch into agricultural products such as wheat or cotton to take advantage of what he sees as the next leg in an unfolding commodities boom. Prices were historically low and supply was failing to catch up with demand.

“If I were looking for new investments in commodities today, I would be looking at agriculture,” he said.

The euro will disappear within 20 years because of the inability of member states to stick to the rules underpinning the European Union's single currency, prominent U.S. investor Jim Rogers predicted.
non sono d'accordo, piacerebbe agli americani ma il futuro non lo conoscono manco loro

“If I were looking for new investments in commodities today, I would be looking at agriculture,”
sono d'accordo

 

[gipa69]

si dicevo in generale
in particolare, lo spread calcolato sul future va sempre aggiornato
funziona lo stesso con l'indice??

Si.

 

[Leo's]

quello dove ho messo i cerchietti rossi non è un indicatore ... è lo spread, l'ho scritto nel grafico: spread= Fib/10-Eurostock
buona è la prima che hai detto, la linea rossa è l'eurostock e la blu è il fib, prima o poi lo spread ( linea grossa marrone) si chiude ( quindi la diffferenza va a zero ) e tu chiudi le posizioni e incassi
insomma si apre sui tra 60 e 100 punti (positivi o negativi) nel grafico e si chiude sullo zero

molto interessante
si, conoscevo già un po' lo spread con vari strumenti (solo per averne letto), ma non avevo mai sentito tra stox e mini..
ok, la linea rossa è lo spread... ma posso chiederti come lo calcoli? cioè, io ad esempio ho disponibili solo i grafici che mi fornisce iwbank "di serie" (aggratis ) oppure prorealtime (con dati EOD soltanto al momento). Sono (molto) inesperto e non riesco a capire cosa impostare per ottenere appunto l'indicazione dello spread
scusa la domanda troppo ignorante

 

[Fernando'S]

no, la linea grossa marrone è lo spread
la rossa e la blu sottile sono i futures

tu dovresti creare un nuovo grafico che sia composto dalla differenza tra i dati EoD dell'eurostock e quelli EoD del fib secondo la formula che ti ho dato
otterrai una nuova serie di dati che plotterai per costruire il grafico dello spread ( fib/10-eurostock)
io lo faccio con il metastock
non so tu come lo potresti fare
ciao

 

[giomf]

......io lo faccio con il metastock
non so tu come lo potresti fare
ciao

Sai se con VisualTrader lo si può fare . . . ?

 

[Fernando'S]

mai coperto !
chiedi a chi lo usa

 

[gipa69]

November 29 – Financial Times (James Mackintosh): “Hedge funds have taken on more than $300bn in the past six months and now manage more than $2,000bn, according to a survey of hedge fund administrators. The rapid growth - matched by a 20 per cent rise in fund-of-hedge-funds assets to $954bn in the same period - comes as wealthy individuals and institutional investors continue pouring cash into hedge funds, in spite of lower average returns than stock markets this year.”

As an analyst of Bubbles, I am today not all too inclined to proffer the imminent end to such a powerful speculative Bubble (and financial mania) thus far demonstrating intense Inflationary Biases. I certainly don’t expect Wall Street to freely throw in the towel.

First of all, I have a difficult time buying into “the economy is about to fall off a cliff” viewpoint. I remain skeptical of the bond and interest-rate markets’ histrionic responses to manufacturing data. After all, the U.S. Bubble economy is chiefly dictated by finance and “services.” Financial conditions remain ultra-loose and, as far as I can tell, the services arena maintains an expansionary bias. Global liquidity conditions are unparalleled. As such, I am more inclined to believe that we are witnessing yet another case of derivative and interest-rate hedging-induced market dislocation. In the past, such circumstances incited a boost in lending and market-based finance. It is worth mentioning that the S&P Homebuilding index is up 30% from July lows. More importantly, however, previous bond market melt-ups pushed those Bubbles and sectors demonstrating the most robust Inflationary Biases to problematic extremes.

With global markets now dominated by leveraged speculation and derivatives trading, abrupt and dramatic market lurches have become the norm. We’ve seen as much this year in global equities, the energy and commodities markets, currencies, and interest-rates. The Law of the Jungle rules; and the marketplace goes out of its way to severely punish those that find themselves on the wrong side of a trade.

What is not at all clear is to what extent this escalating Monetary Disorder is acting as a wrecking ball, chipping away at the leveraged players’ returns and risk tolerance, along with market confidence generally. It would be a major bearish development if interest-rate and dollar market dislocations evolved to the point of inciting heightened risk aversion throughout Global Corporate Finance. There just aren’t as yet indications of this unfolding. Conversely, I can envisage the scenario where the sophisticated market players, freed from the fear of actual Fed and global central bank tightening, see recent market gyrations – and specifically dollar weakness and lower global yields - as constructive for ongoing liquidity and speculative excess. Time to gear up for the speculative blow-off. There are indications…

Thus far, dollar weakness and sinking market yields have been constructive for the global equities and commodities booms. There is thus far no indication that market developments are impinging the global M&A boom. Non-dollar assets – from gold and the metals, to energy, to foreign companies and resources – are being revalued higher. And, importantly, this circumstance is quite constructive for Credit growth and speculative excess from a almighty global financial infrastructure that has now had almost five years to get positioned to play this “trade” for all its worth.

And at risk this evening of sounding hopelessly out of touch, I am not ready to jettison the heightened inflation scenario. If this proves yet another case of the ballooning Financial Sphere dictating the Economic Sphere, the current market dislocation and yield collapse could be setting the stage for a 2007 inflation surprise. On a global basis, the faltering dollar will pressure foreign central bankers to tolerate loose financial conditions, while leaving domestic Credit system free to expand at will. A weaker dollar will make it only more difficult for the Chinese to manage their unwieldy Credit and economic booms. Here at home, we surely haven’t seen the last of energy and import price inflation. The booming export sector will be further stimulated.

But I’ll have to label the Corporate Finance Bubble as The Big Wildcard. Considering the liquidity and speculative backdrop, I’d be willing to bet that sinking market yields foster some extraordinary (inflationary) consequences. And it is my view that heightened compensation pressures are today a major Inflationary Bias, nurtured through years of Credit and liquidity excess. Barring financial crisis or some development that restrains Credit expansion or incites de-leveraging, the combination of ballooning corporate liquidity and the worsening skilled labor shortage would appear poised to manifest in continued Income Inflation. “U.S. hiring activity firmed in November from October amid rising business confidence, and 2007 could see stronger momentum, according to staffing executives. Personnel specialists said employers in many regions are beginning to shed some of the caution that moderated job growth this year. Low unemployment continues to tighten the talent supply, but has led to wage gains only in some arenas. Accounting and finance personnel are scarcest. Information technology staffing is also accelerating, but is nowhere near the chaotic pace of the tech boom years, recruiters said.”

Wall Street and the global leveraged speculating community have become incredibly powerful. I don’t expect they’ll be willing to let go of this pot of gold without a hell of a fight

 

[f4f]

mai coperto !
chiedi a chi lo usa

cosa intendi , Fernando?

 

[gipa69]

Market Turns
Short-Term Outlook
Publisher, Jim Curry

S&P 500 CASH (SPX)
In Thursday’s session the 10 and 20 day cycles confirmed their lows for the SPX as the 1377.86 swing bottom from Tuesday’s session, which puts both components now at only 2 trading days along to the upside and thus now seen as bullish.

In terms of price, Thursday’s action confirmed a 10 day cycle upside target to 1417.65 - 1422.18, which is valid until noted otherwise. And, in terms of actual time, about the minimum statistical rallies with the 20 day cycle in this position have taken at least 6 trading days before peaking, which - if seen here - would infer that this cycle should not see it’s peak made before 12/6/06; this is valid above the same 1377.86 level.
Stepping back a bit, for the 45-day cycle the cyclic detrend looks like it could end up turning up under the current swing - which could infer that the 1377 low as also being an extended 45 day down phase.

However, for this to be confirmed it would actually take a push above the 1407.89 swing top (the prior peak for this component). If that were to be seen, then the minimum rallies with this 45-day cycle in this position have been in the range of 3.4% or better - which, if seen here, would infer continued upside towards the 1423 level or higher for the SPX. All said then, we have a 10 day target to the 1417 level or higher, and, additionally, taking out taking out 1407.89 should indicate a continued chop higher for the next week or three, where again we would have to be looking for signs that the larger 120-day (20-26 week) cycle has peaked.

The 120 Day (20-26 week) Cycle
The 120 trading day cycle last bottomed at the 6/14/06 swing low, which puts this component now at 118 trading days along at Thursday‘s close, currently still seen as bearish and thus looking for it’s normal correction off the top in the weeks ahead.

The greater-majority (80%) of the 120 up phases in this position have seen their peaks made on or before the 119 day mark, while the longest time rally from trough to peak lasted 141 days before topping. This, along with the notes on the 45-day cycle from above, would favor a peak with this cycle being made within the next month, at furthest.
Adding to the information from above, the 120-day component has registered the pattern of a ‘lower-low/higher-high’ - which is semi-rare for any cycle; in the past 10 years with this 120-day component this pattern has occurred only five other times. And, of those five, the minimum decline off the top on the following down phase was about 5%. However, of additional inference is that each of these (100%) went on to make a higher high again on their following upward phase, which would tend to indicate that we should not be looking for the four-year cycle to form it’s peak until at least the 120-day up phase that follows the current rotation - or, in other words, at some point in 2007. Thus, with the aforementioned position of the 45 and 120 day cycles, the indexes might have the best ‘look’ for a good correction (5% or better) to take place between now and January of 2007, then to be followed by a higher high on the next 120-day up phase. At that point both the 120 and 360 day cycles re-top, then decline hard (8%-10% or greater) into March/May of next year for their respective lows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NASDAQ 100 CASH (NDX)
Back in late-September the 120-day (20-26 week) cycle confirmed an upside projection to 1795.12 - 1872.80, which has obviously been hit with the recent action. This same range should also be the region where this particular cycle tries to form a peak on this index - which could well have been registered at the 1824.21 swing top from 11/24/06. However, with the SPX calling for higher levels again the assumption has to be that another move to or above the highs is going to be seen before all is said and done here.
Even with the possibility of new highs again being seen on the SPX, I am still leaning towards the mid-term bear side on this index, based upon several key things here. First, the 120-day cycle is still on the extended side and is set to peak in the noted target range; if a peak for this component is not already in place then it should ideally peak before late-December.

Secondly, in going over the COT figures earlier this week, NDX commercials have been increasing their combined shorts on this index, moving up from about 2,000 contracts several weeks ago (where they had originally started selling into the rally) to their new combined position of nearly 14,000 contracts. Lastly, major ‘swing resistance’ on the monthly chart is currently in a range between the 1830-1860 region, which looks like it is going to be hard to get past with all of the above said and noted. Thus, the bottom line with this index is to be looking for a 120-day cycle peak to be made in the days/weeks ahead, if not already in place then ideally into the 1830-1860 ‘swing resistance’ zone. From there, look for a firm correction back down to the 1660-1740 range (a normal percentage correction with this component) at some point on the next down wave.

Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory

 

[gipa69]