Tbond Bund (VM69) 2013: Bandits Unchained tra Krug bubbles and balls
- Creatore Discussione MissT
- Data di Inizio
f4f
翠鸟科
Risks are shifting: from stocks to bonds, and from DM to EM
For much of the last five years, investors were able to take shelter from various economic and market tempests in a few axiomatic ‘truths’ – bonds were safer than stocks, EM growth was superior to DM, and liquidity was omnipresent. The last few weeks have seen all of these assumptions tested, and come up wanting.
For much of the last five years, investors were able to take shelter from various economic and market tempests in a few axiomatic ‘truths’ – bonds were safer than stocks, EM growth was superior to DM, and liquidity was omnipresent. The last few weeks have seen all of these assumptions tested, and come up wanting.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
per il momento è solo un test ma importante d'altronde i titoli governativi hanno sottoperformato gli high yield nelle ultime sedute e questo dà da pensare che la pressione ribassista sui bond è più psicologica che reale ma testa la resistenza delle posizioni..Allegati
f4f
翠鸟科
Our China economist, Ting Lu, believes that while there may be some downside risk to Chinese data, the risks of a hard landing are overstated and he sees real Chinese GDP growth of 7.6% in 2013. Nevertheless, in the last few years strong EM demand helped Europe’s main exporting economies (Germany, Sweden, etc) to weather the EU crisis. The result was DAX and OMX trading close to their all time highs, while other EU indices languished as the domestic demand picture remained bleak
f4f
翠鸟科
In our view, the pick up in domestic demand can offset softening EM/China demand for Europe’s key exporting nations as well as providing a broader tailwind for EU equities. We are seeing this pattern begin to show in industrial data with German PMIs moderating just as French and Periphery PMIs rebound (chart 6).
f4f
翠鸟科
Like most developed economies, consumption is the largest component of European GDP. Europe’s share of global consumption is four times that of China, from a population that is only 40% of the size; given the much larger base, a modest pick-up in EU consumption can offset a much more meaningful percentage decline in Chinese growth.
f4f
翠鸟科
As a result a modest improvement in EU consumer sentiment can have an outsized impact on growth expectations, and by extension on EPS and stock prices. Chart 8 shows that even though consumer confidence remains solidly in negative territory, the trend is rebounding strongly, and is led by Italy and Spain.
The forward looking components of PMIs also point to further improvements in coming months (Chart 9)
The forward looking components of PMIs also point to further improvements in coming months (Chart 9)
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Ma in questo test dei trend c'è ne un altro in corso che riguarda i flow sui bond europei con divergenze significative tra i vari asset ed una certa preferenza verso l'Italia significativa...
e alcuni segnali micro mi fanno pensare ad un repentino miglioramento della situazione (non certo un boom ma un cambiamento di trend da negativo a modestamente positivo)
I flussi misurati sui clienti citi...
e alcuni segnali micro mi fanno pensare ad un repentino miglioramento della situazione (non certo un boom ma un cambiamento di trend da negativo a modestamente positivo)
I flussi misurati sui clienti citi...
Allegati
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
