tommy271
Forumer storico
Sarà un pò difficile perdere 7 punti ... comunque, mai dire mai.
Lo spread (ad occhio) dovrebbe portarsi dagli attuali 282 pb. a circa 400 pb.
Titoli di Stato area Euro Titoli di stato Portogallo - Tendenze ed operatività (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione fiorino
- Data di Inizio
Sarà un pò difficile perdere 7 punti ... comunque, mai dire mai.
Lo spread (ad occhio) dovrebbe portarsi dagli attuali 282 pb. a circa 400 pb.
Caront€
Succube a prescindere!
tommy271
Forumer storico
Sempre buongustaio ...
.Ieri pomeriggio avevo chiesto il prezzo, tramite un amico, mi avevano dato OTC 100,40.
Sull'XETRA vedo un 100,00 - 100,50.
drbs315
Forumer storico
Sempre buongustaio ...
Ieri pomeriggio avevo chiesto il prezzo, tramite un amico, mi avevano dato OTC 100,40.
Sull'XETRA vedo un 100,00 - 100,50.
Quando c'è novità un assaggino va sempre bene
Baro
Umile contadino
Mah...dipende da Ltro draghiano e come le banche si posizionano e tanti altri fattori provenienti da oltreoceano...ma 400 mi sembra troppo...
negusneg
New Member
Announcement:
Moody's: Problems at Banco Espirito Santo unlikely to jeopardize Portugal's improving fundamentals
Global Credit Research - 11 Jul 2014
London, 11 July 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the problems detected at the parent company of Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo (BES) and their likely impact on the wider banking system should not have a significant impact on the sovereign's credit metrics and the macroeconomic fundamentals of the country. These developments therefore do not affect Portugal's government bond rating of Ba2, which has been on review for possible upgrade since 9 May 2014.
Moody's decision to downgrade the ratings of both the parent company Espirito Santo Financial Group (ESFG) to Caa2 on 9 July, and the bank itself to B3 (senior debt ratings) on 11 July was in response to specific governance problems at ESFG and a lack of transparency surrounding the ring-fencing of BES against any stresses emerging from ESFG or any other group entity (The rating actions on ESFG and BES can be accessed via the links at the end of this comment). At the same time, the current uncertainty of how the regulator and government will deal with this crisis risks to spill over to other Portuguese banks, reducing their funding flexibility and increasing their sensitivity to market sentiment. While these developments are therefore negative for the wider Portuguese banking sector, they do not affect the Portuguese sovereign's credit fundamentals.
Portugal's fiscal and economic situation has been improving over the past quarters, and Moody's notes that the government currently has cash buffers of at least EUR15 billion at its disposal, including a cushion of EUR6.4 billion that was set aside specifically for bank recapitalisation purposes. Hence, any capital support for BES by the government would not have an impact on Portugal's public debt ratio, which is nevertheless very high at close to 130% of GDP. While Moody's believes that there could potentially be an impact on the budget deficit, it is unclear at this stage whether such public capital support would be required. Portugal's general government deficit stood at 4.9% of GDP at the end of 2013, and Moody's expects that the government will manage to reduce it further to 4% of GDP this year, as agreed with Portugal's official creditors under the just completed support program.
Moody's also notes that the Portuguese economy has started to recover in early 2013, with private consumption and investment contributing positively to growth over the past two quarters. While the growth of these two demand components might slow down temporarily, Moody's points out that Portugal's recovery remains reliant on the performance of exports, which are not affected by the current uncertainties. Overall, Moody's maintains its current growth forecast and continues to expect real GDP to expand at a moderate rate of 1.2% this year (Q1 2014: +1.3% year-over-year).
The key focus of Moody's ongoing review for upgrade of Portugal's Ba2 government bond rating is the prospect of meaningful expenditure-focused fiscal consolidation over the coming years. Moody's will also take into account any further information regarding the need for public capital support for BES.
This announcement does not constitute a rating action on the Portuguese sovereign.
Below are the links to the recent bank rating actions:
- Espirito Santo Financial Group (ESFG): https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_303515
- Banco Espirito Santo: https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_303875
Moody's: Problems at Banco Espirito Santo unlikely to jeopardize Portugal's improving fundamentals
Global Credit Research - 11 Jul 2014
London, 11 July 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the problems detected at the parent company of Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo (BES) and their likely impact on the wider banking system should not have a significant impact on the sovereign's credit metrics and the macroeconomic fundamentals of the country. These developments therefore do not affect Portugal's government bond rating of Ba2, which has been on review for possible upgrade since 9 May 2014.
Moody's decision to downgrade the ratings of both the parent company Espirito Santo Financial Group (ESFG) to Caa2 on 9 July, and the bank itself to B3 (senior debt ratings) on 11 July was in response to specific governance problems at ESFG and a lack of transparency surrounding the ring-fencing of BES against any stresses emerging from ESFG or any other group entity (The rating actions on ESFG and BES can be accessed via the links at the end of this comment). At the same time, the current uncertainty of how the regulator and government will deal with this crisis risks to spill over to other Portuguese banks, reducing their funding flexibility and increasing their sensitivity to market sentiment. While these developments are therefore negative for the wider Portuguese banking sector, they do not affect the Portuguese sovereign's credit fundamentals.
Portugal's fiscal and economic situation has been improving over the past quarters, and Moody's notes that the government currently has cash buffers of at least EUR15 billion at its disposal, including a cushion of EUR6.4 billion that was set aside specifically for bank recapitalisation purposes. Hence, any capital support for BES by the government would not have an impact on Portugal's public debt ratio, which is nevertheless very high at close to 130% of GDP. While Moody's believes that there could potentially be an impact on the budget deficit, it is unclear at this stage whether such public capital support would be required. Portugal's general government deficit stood at 4.9% of GDP at the end of 2013, and Moody's expects that the government will manage to reduce it further to 4% of GDP this year, as agreed with Portugal's official creditors under the just completed support program.
Moody's also notes that the Portuguese economy has started to recover in early 2013, with private consumption and investment contributing positively to growth over the past two quarters. While the growth of these two demand components might slow down temporarily, Moody's points out that Portugal's recovery remains reliant on the performance of exports, which are not affected by the current uncertainties. Overall, Moody's maintains its current growth forecast and continues to expect real GDP to expand at a moderate rate of 1.2% this year (Q1 2014: +1.3% year-over-year).
The key focus of Moody's ongoing review for upgrade of Portugal's Ba2 government bond rating is the prospect of meaningful expenditure-focused fiscal consolidation over the coming years. Moody's will also take into account any further information regarding the need for public capital support for BES.
This announcement does not constitute a rating action on the Portuguese sovereign.
Below are the links to the recent bank rating actions:
- Espirito Santo Financial Group (ESFG): https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_303515
- Banco Espirito Santo: https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_303875
