Titoli di Stato area Euro Titoli di stato Portogallo - Tendenze ed operatività

[Vespasianus]

Unrelenting demand for fixed income has pushed yields, in Europe at least, to a point where investors no longer distinguish one country's bonds from another's -- potentially storing up trouble for when focus returns to the economic drivers behind borrowing costs.

Individual countries' credit ratings, political risks and fiscal and economic performance have been pushed aside as a global hunt for yield has gathered pace since Britain voted in favour of leaving the European Union in a June referendum. The result darkened Europe's growth outlook and triggered a fresh wave of monetary easing from central banks.

...

A sell-off in Portuguese bonds on Tuesday after ratings agency DBRS said pressures were building on Portugal's country's creditworthiness was also a reminder of just how quickly yields can rise when focus returns to domestic issues.

Potential triggers for a reassessment of the bond market could come from economic data or outside Europe if talk of another U.S. interest rate hike gains ground, analysts said.


Political risk? Banking crisis? Investors buy euro zone debt anyway

 

[Vespasianus]

Portugal’s government bonds fell for a second day amid speculation that ratings company DBRS Ltd. may downgrade the nation’s sovereign debt.

The country’s 10-year bond yield rose to the highest in two weeks. DBRS’s rating of BBB (low) leaves it the only major company to rank Portugal’s debt as investment grade. That’s essential for the securities to remain eligible for the European Central Bank’s asset-purchase program.


Portugal’s Bonds Decline Amid Speculation of Rating Downgrade

 

[Vespasianus]

I risultati dell'asta di ieri.

The IGCP debt agency sold 400 million euros in 3-month T-bills and 900 million euros in 11-month paper, exceeding the upper range of its planned offer amount of 1 billion euros total for both maturities.

The average yield on the 3-month paper fell to minus 0.108 percent from 0.075 percent in the previous auction in June. The longer maturity yielded 0.007 percent, down from 0.038 percent at the previous auction of a similar-dated maturity last month.

Demand for 3-month bills outstripped the amount placed by 1.96 times in the auction, and by 2.31 times for the longer maturity.


(Reuters)

 

[Kim]

19 AUG 2016 4:04 PM EST

Fitch Affirms Portugal at 'BB+'; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings-London-19 August 2016: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Portugal's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB+' with a Stable Outlook. The issue ratings on Portugal's senior unsecured foreign- and local-currency bonds are also affirmed at 'BB+. The Country Ceiling has been affirmed at 'A+' and the Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
Portugal's 'BB+' ratings are constrained by high indebtedness, weak economic growth and legacy problems in the financial system. Government debt, at 129% of GDP at end-2015, is almost three times the 'BB' median. Positively, the ratings are supported by high GDP per capita compared with rated peers, a solid institutional framework and a strong business environment.

Portugal's 'BB+' IDRs reflect the following key rating drivers:

Fiscal figures for 1H16 have been broadly consistent with the government's original expectations. Revenue has been lifted by new levies on indirect taxes such as tobacco and vehicles, while spending has been contained via capital expenditure cuts. Nevertheless, risks to the 2.2% deficit target for 2016 persist, including uncertainty as to the full effect of various fiscal policy measures to be implemented throughout the year and the impact of weaker growth. In this context, Fitch is maintaining its cautious deficit forecast of 2.7% of GDP for this year.

Despite potential political pressures to ease consolidation over the medium-term, we continue to expect a modest narrowing of the deficit in 2017-18. This will help meet some key EU fiscal targets and reduce high public debt. We currently forecast public debt/GDP to fall to 122% by 2020. There are, however, key downside risks to our forecast, reflecting mainly the prospect of further capital injections in state-owned Caixa Geral de Depositos (CGD, Portugal's biggest bank).

Financial institutions continue to suffer from poor asset quality, affected by exposure to weak mortgage credit and rising non-performing loans (credit at risk stood at 12.2% of total loans in 1Q16 according to the Bank of Portugal), particularly on their corporate portfolio. This remains a drag on profitability and has put pressure on the capital position of some institutions such as CGD. The authorities aim to conclude the restructuring of the system by mid-2017 (including the sale of Novo Banco) although delays to this schedule cannot be ruled out.

Economic growth continues to disappoint, constrained by a weak export performance and a slowdown in investment. GDP growth was only 0.2% q-o-q in 1Q and 2Q, well below the authorities' expectations and the eurozone average. Private consumption remains the most dynamic growth component (although it slowed in 2Q), helped by improving labour conditions.
The unemployment rate stood at 10.8% in 2Q16, the lowest figure in five years. With external headwinds likely to continue in 2H, Fitch now expects GDP to grow only 1.2% in 2016 (compared with 1.6% previously and the 'BB' median of 3.3%), with downside risks.

A pick-up in external demand and rising household income will help the economy gain some momentum from 2017 onwards. Stronger medium-term growth performance, however, will be ultimately determined by progress in tackling the economy's main structural constraints. A major impediment remains high levels of corporate indebtedness, which have fallen but at 143% of GDP (non-consolidated) in March 2016 remain a significant hindrance to investment. Ongoing problems in the financial sector also act as a constraint on investment and consumer confidence.

Portugal's trade balance deteriorated in 1H16, as merchandise exports contracted 2% y-o-y. This is the result of weaker demand from key non-EU markets such as Angola (exports there fell by 42% in 1H16) and one-off effects such as temporary disruptions in key sectors.

However, the impact on the external accounts has been limited, as tourism receipts continue to rise sharply and interest expenditure falls. With domestic demand pressures remaining moderate, we expect the current account to remain in surplus in 2016-18, helping to reduce external indebtedness gradually. According to Fitch's estimates, net external debt stood at 150.9% of GDP in 2015, compared with 16.4% for the 'BB' median.

Portugal ranks well above its similarly rated and 'BBB' peers, in terms of human development and governance, highlighting the strength of its institutions and their resilience during the recent crisis.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) and QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Portugal a score equivalent to a rating of 'A-' on the Long-Term FC IDR scale.

In accordance with its rating criteria, Fitch's sovereign rating committee decided to adjust the rating indicated by the SRM by more than the usual maximum range of +/-3 notches because: in our view the country is recovering from a crisis.

Consequently, the overall adjustment of four notches reflects the following adjustments:-

-Macro: -1 notch, to reflect high corporate indebtedness, low investment, adverse demographic trends and financial sector weakness that constrain the medium-term growth outlook.
- Public Finances: -1 notch, to reflect very high levels of government debt. The SRM is estimated on the basis of a linear approach to government debt/GDP and does not fully capture the higher risk at high debt levels.
- External Finances: -2 notches. The model gives a 2-notch enhancement for reserve currency but one-notch uplift is more appropriate for Portugal given the country's recent crisis and need for an IMF programme. Moreover, net external debt as a percentage of GDP is one of the highest in the world.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
Future developments that could individually or collectively result in negative rating action include:
- Renewed stress in the financial sector requiring further financial support from the state.
- Failure to make progress in reducing the general government debt/GDP ratio or in unwinding external imbalances.
- Weaker economic growth prospects with a negative impact on the banking sector or public finances.

Future developments that could individually or collectively result in positive rating action include:
- Improved fiscal performance consistent with a downward trend in general government debt/GDP levels.
- An improvement in medium-term economic growth prospects.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
In its debt sensitivity analysis Fitch assumes a primary surplus averaging 1.5% of GDP, trend real GDP growth averaging 1.4%, an average effective interest rate of 3.5% and deflator inflation of 1.7%. On the basis of these assumptions, the debt-to-GDP ratio would fall to 117.2% by 2025. Our debt dynamics do not include any government bank asset disposals as the timing and values of such operation remain uncertain.

Press Release

 

[Vespasianus]

Il calendario dei prossimi aggiornamenti del rating portoghese.

02.09.2016
MOODY’S
Fez em Julho dois anos que a Moody’s reviu a notação financeira para Portugal. A agência de "rating" subiu, então, a avaliação de "Ba2" para "Ba1", mantendo a perspectiva de "estável". No entanto, a Moody’s já alertou este ano para a elevada dívida pública, num contexto de crescimento apenas moderado. Factores que não têm melhorado e que, por isso, colocam em destaque a revisão a Portugal que a agência tem agendada para 2 de Setembro.

16.09.2016
STANDARD & POOR’S
Tal como a Moody’s e a Fitch, a Standard & Poor’s coloca a dívida portuguesa no último nível de "lixo" da sua escala: "BB+". Uma avaliação atribuída desde Setembro de 2015, após a subida de um nível. Desde então, a perspectiva é "estável" e a a próxima revisão será a 16 de Setembro. Na última vez que emitiu um relatório sobre Portugal, a S&P alertou que reduziria o "rating", se o Governo não implementasse reformas para impulsionar o crescimento, ou se a posição orçamental ficasse muito aquém do previsto.

21.10.2016
DBRS
Se há agência de "rating" que tem preocupado o Governo é a DBRS. Sendo a única que coloca a dívida nacional fora de "lixo" – em "BBB (low)" –, mantém Portugal elegível para as compras de activos do BCE. Um factor importante, já que esta ferramenta monetária tem pressionado os juros de Portugal. Por isso, a revisão de 21 de Outubro estará debaixo dos holofotes, apesar de a DBRS ter garantido, recentemente, que está confortável com a avaliação.


(JN)

 

[Vespasianus]

I costi del salvataggio del sistema bancario sulle casse dello Stato portoghese dal 2008 al 2015.

A despesa pública com a banca ascendeu a 20,3 mil milhões de euros entre 2008 e 2015, o equivalente a 11,3% do PIB português, numa soma que cresce a cada ano que passa. As contas à fatura que a banca entregou até ao momento aos contribuintes inclui já o agravar do buraco do Banco Português de Negócios (BPN) registado no ano passado e também o efeito do colapso do Banif, de acordo com os números calculados esta semana pelo Tribunal de Contas.

Mas estes apoios do Estado à banca não trazem apenas custos, resultando também em receitas para os contribuintes, ainda que em muito menor medida. Assim, e seja pela via dos juros pagos pelas obrigações contingentes (CoCos) ou fruto das receitas obtidas com ativos ou com as garantias cedidas aos mesmos bancos, nos últimos anos o Estado encaixou 6 mil milhões de euros com as diversas medidas de apoio cedidas à banca.

Contas feitas, o peso líquido do sector suportado pelos contribuintes entre 2008 e 2015 ronda assim os 14,25 mil milhões (8% do PIB). Nestas contas foram tidos em conta todos os fluxos financeiros, positivos e negativos, entre o Estado e a banca, desde aquisição de participações de capital e de obrigações, à concessão de empréstimos ou a prestação de garantias.


Banca já custou 20,3 mil milhões. E fatura está longe do fim

 

[Vespasianus]

Il saliscendi del ventennale portoghese negli ultimi 3 mesi. Evidenziati, il referendum inglese e le ultime dichiarazioni DBRS sul rating.
L'8 settembre è prevista la prossima riunione di politica monetaria della Bce.

 

[ang41]

Buongiorno
direi che le quotazioni sono tornate interessanti in particolare seguo il 26

 

[Vespasianus]

Buongiorno
direi che le quotazioni sono tornate interessanti in particolare seguo il 26

In effetti è più basso dei lunghi rispetto ai prezzi di inizio aprile, prima della caduta. Io continuo a preferire il 45 e in seconda battuta il ventennale.

 

[Vespasianus]

Os dados foram publicados esta manhã pelo Banco de Portugal e mostram que a dívida das Administrações Públicas continua numa tendência crescente. Entre o primeiro e o segundo trimestre deste ano, passou de 128,9% para 131,6% do PIB. Se a comparação for feita com o mesmo período de 2015, observa-se também um aumento de 3,2 pontos percentuais.

Este valor coincide com aquele que já tinha sido estimado pela Unidade Técnica de Apoio Orçamental (UTAO), que antecipava um valor entre os 131% e os 132% do PIB. "A confirmar-se, regista-se um acréscimo face ao valor provisório da dívida pública no final do primeiro trimestre (128,9% do PIB), sendo este valor superior ao previsto para o final do ano pelo FMI e pela OCDE (128,3% do PIB), pela Comissão Europeia (126% do PIB) e pelo Ministério das Finanças (124,8% do PIB)", escrevia a UTAO no início de Agosto.

Em Junho, a dívida pública superava os 240 mil milhões de euros, acima dos 237,6 mil milhões de Maio e dos 231,3 de Janeiro.


Dívida pública volta a aumentar e já está perto dos 132% do PIB