Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
Il trentennale ritorna sopra 100 dopo quasi un mese sott'acqua. Il decennale va verso 3,2%.
Nel grafico, il '37 ieri e oggi.
Nel grafico, il '37 ieri e oggi.
Titoli di Stato area Euro Titoli di stato Portogallo - Tendenze ed operatività
- Creatore Discussione fiorino
- Data di Inizio
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
Rendimenti decennali, visibile il miglioramento del portoghese rispetto agli altri.
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
The closer Portugal gets to its crucial rating review, the more relaxed investors appear.
Portugal’s 10-year benchmark bonds rose for a fifth day, paring the extra yield they offer over German securities to about the lowest in a month, as traders awaited DBRS Ltd.’s rating decision on Friday. The Canadian company is the only major agency to grant the nation an investment grade, without which its debt would be ineligible for purchase by the European Central Bank.
“There’s been a little bit of pricing out” of a Portugal downgrade in the bond market, said Lyn Graham-Taylor, a rates strategist at Rabobank International in London. “It’s unlikely they’ll downgrade Portugal when we analyze what the sovereign analysts were saying publicly, and also because DBRS tend to be much more long-term looking. There have also been some positive noises about the 2017 budget.”
Portugal’s 10-year bond yield fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 3.22 percent as of 10 a.m. in London. The 2.875 percent security due in July 2026 rose 0.19, or 1.9 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,099) face amount, to 97.13.
The spread over similar-maturity German debt was at 320 basis points, approaching the lowest since Sept. 13.
DBRS kept Portugal’s rating at BBB (low) -- its lowest investment grade -- at its last review in April. For its bonds to qualify for purchase under the ECB’s quantitative-easing plan, the nation must be rated investment grade by at least one major ratings company.
(Bloomberg)
Portugal’s 10-year benchmark bonds rose for a fifth day, paring the extra yield they offer over German securities to about the lowest in a month, as traders awaited DBRS Ltd.’s rating decision on Friday. The Canadian company is the only major agency to grant the nation an investment grade, without which its debt would be ineligible for purchase by the European Central Bank.
“There’s been a little bit of pricing out” of a Portugal downgrade in the bond market, said Lyn Graham-Taylor, a rates strategist at Rabobank International in London. “It’s unlikely they’ll downgrade Portugal when we analyze what the sovereign analysts were saying publicly, and also because DBRS tend to be much more long-term looking. There have also been some positive noises about the 2017 budget.”
Portugal’s 10-year bond yield fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 3.22 percent as of 10 a.m. in London. The 2.875 percent security due in July 2026 rose 0.19, or 1.9 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,099) face amount, to 97.13.
The spread over similar-maturity German debt was at 320 basis points, approaching the lowest since Sept. 13.
DBRS kept Portugal’s rating at BBB (low) -- its lowest investment grade -- at its last review in April. For its bonds to qualify for purchase under the ECB’s quantitative-easing plan, the nation must be rated investment grade by at least one major ratings company.
(Bloomberg)
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
La tesoreria colloca 1,25 mld di BT a rendimenti negativi leggermente superiori a quelli dell'ultima asta (risalente al mese scorso).
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
Rendimento decennale sotto 3,2% mentre il resto della periferia è quasi immobile.
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
O Banco de Portugal (BdP) vai responder por 29% da redução do défice esperada pelo governo em 2017, ou seja cerca de 432 milhões de euros (0,23% do PIB).
O contributo do supervisor chega pelo aumento dos dividendos que vai distribuir e pela esperada duplicação do IRC que terá de pagar.
O Orçamento do Estado prevê uma melhoria de 1,52 mil milhões de euros no saldo global do próximo ano. Deste valor, 303 milhões devem chegar do aumento dos dividendos pagos pelo BdP face a 2016 – para 450 milhões. Mas para chegar a este nível de dividendos, o banco central deverá registar qualquer coisa como 782 milhões em resultados antes de impostos. Considerando uma taxa efetiva de imposto de 28,1% – idêntica à paga pelo Banco de Portugal pelos resultados de 2015 -, falamos de uma subida de 129 milhões na fatura de IRC, dos 91 milhões deste ano para 220 milhões.
Banco de Portugal financia quase 30% da redução do défice no próximo ano
O contributo do supervisor chega pelo aumento dos dividendos que vai distribuir e pela esperada duplicação do IRC que terá de pagar.
O Orçamento do Estado prevê uma melhoria de 1,52 mil milhões de euros no saldo global do próximo ano. Deste valor, 303 milhões devem chegar do aumento dos dividendos pagos pelo BdP face a 2016 – para 450 milhões. Mas para chegar a este nível de dividendos, o banco central deverá registar qualquer coisa como 782 milhões em resultados antes de impostos. Considerando uma taxa efetiva de imposto de 28,1% – idêntica à paga pelo Banco de Portugal pelos resultados de 2015 -, falamos de uma subida de 129 milhões na fatura de IRC, dos 91 milhões deste ano para 220 milhões.
Banco de Portugal financia quase 30% da redução do défice no próximo ano
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
Rendimenti decennali
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
“Draghi will probably give a rendezvous to December,” said Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Pictet & Cie in Geneva. “A six-month QE extension would make sense. But on balance, it’s too early and he may just say that all options are on the table.”
The central bank will announce its policy decision at 1:45 p.m. Frankfurt time, and Draghi will speak to reporters 45 minutes later. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the ECB will keep interest rates and the pace of monthly asset purchases unchanged. A separate poll showed they also predict QE will eventually be extended.
Inflation -- the benchmark for the ECB’s future course of policy -- is only slowly picking up. While Draghi said this month that price growth, currently at 0.4 percent, will be in line with the central bank’s target by early 2019 at the latest, economists are less convinced. Only two-thirds predict the rate will reach such levels before his term expires in October of that year.
The ECB’s current projections are built on expectations of “additional monetary policy measures,” according to an account of last month’s council meeting. Policy makers may draw on updated forecasts due in December to decide exactly how much more stimulus is needed.
Any extension of QE will probably require a change in the rules governing the program. ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure told officials in September that purchases were leaving an increasing “footprint” in financial markets and some bonds were getting scarce.
While a sell-off in euro-area bonds has eased some of the pressure for the moment, the U.K.’s decision to exit the European Union and troubles at Deutsche Bank AG have shown that spikes in demand for safer assets have the potential to reduce the pool of eligible debt by pushing yields below a self-imposed requirement.
Draghi will probably face questions over reports that some policy makers have started to think about how to slow stimulus when the time comes. The Governing Council hasn’t formally discussed the topic but officials have signaled that QE will eventually be tapered -- a process the majority of economists predicts will start in the second half of 2017 or later.
Other topics that may come up during the press conference include European banks, many of which are struggling with non-performing loans, mounting regulatory hurdles, and low profitability as a result of the ECB’s negative-rate policy. The region’s bank stocks have lost more than 23 percent of their value this year, sparking concern among officials that a drop in equity prices risks hampering lending.
“There’s been a lot of discussion recently among central banks about the impact of negative rates and low yields on bank profitability, which the ECB so far has sold as a success,” said Kristian Toedtmann, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. “If Draghi can go into what some of the negative side effects are and how to avoid them, that could help set the stage for more stimulus in December if it is needed.”
(Bloomberg)
The central bank will announce its policy decision at 1:45 p.m. Frankfurt time, and Draghi will speak to reporters 45 minutes later. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the ECB will keep interest rates and the pace of monthly asset purchases unchanged. A separate poll showed they also predict QE will eventually be extended.
Inflation -- the benchmark for the ECB’s future course of policy -- is only slowly picking up. While Draghi said this month that price growth, currently at 0.4 percent, will be in line with the central bank’s target by early 2019 at the latest, economists are less convinced. Only two-thirds predict the rate will reach such levels before his term expires in October of that year.
The ECB’s current projections are built on expectations of “additional monetary policy measures,” according to an account of last month’s council meeting. Policy makers may draw on updated forecasts due in December to decide exactly how much more stimulus is needed.
Any extension of QE will probably require a change in the rules governing the program. ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure told officials in September that purchases were leaving an increasing “footprint” in financial markets and some bonds were getting scarce.
While a sell-off in euro-area bonds has eased some of the pressure for the moment, the U.K.’s decision to exit the European Union and troubles at Deutsche Bank AG have shown that spikes in demand for safer assets have the potential to reduce the pool of eligible debt by pushing yields below a self-imposed requirement.
Draghi will probably face questions over reports that some policy makers have started to think about how to slow stimulus when the time comes. The Governing Council hasn’t formally discussed the topic but officials have signaled that QE will eventually be tapered -- a process the majority of economists predicts will start in the second half of 2017 or later.
Other topics that may come up during the press conference include European banks, many of which are struggling with non-performing loans, mounting regulatory hurdles, and low profitability as a result of the ECB’s negative-rate policy. The region’s bank stocks have lost more than 23 percent of their value this year, sparking concern among officials that a drop in equity prices risks hampering lending.
“There’s been a lot of discussion recently among central banks about the impact of negative rates and low yields on bank profitability, which the ECB so far has sold as a success,” said Kristian Toedtmann, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. “If Draghi can go into what some of the negative side effects are and how to avoid them, that could help set the stage for more stimulus in December if it is needed.”
(Bloomberg)
