Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
Il decennale portoghese sta su livelli che non si vedevano dall'estate 2014.
Titoli di Stato area Euro Titoli di stato Portogallo - Tendenze ed operatività
- Creatore Discussione fiorino
- Data di Inizio
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
As regras europeias são claras e objetivas, razão pela qual não devem sequer existir dúvidas sobre se a recapitalização da Caixa Geral de Depósitos terá impacto ou não no défice público: vai ter. A única dúvida será em quanto, apontou a presidente do Conselho das Finanças Públicas, Teodora Cardoso.
A presidente do CFP encontra-se esta manhã a ser ouvida na Comissão de Orçamento, Finanças e Modernização Administrativa sobre o Orçamento do Estado para 2017, tendo aproveitado para explicar aos deputados as regras do Eurostat que estão em causa. “A Comissão Europeia e a regra do Eurostat é bastante clara mesmo não sendo específica para a CGD. Diz respeito ao facto de que se a necessidade de recapitalização resultar de prejuízos passados que ainda não foram compensados por aumentos de capital, ou seja que já foram ao défice, terão agora que ir ao défice”, começou por esclarecer.
Desta forma, e entre os prejuízos acumulados pelo banco público nos últimos anos, a fatia que não tiver sido compensada por anteriores aumentos de capital – o último foi em 2012 e disponibilizou à CGD o mínimo dos mínimos – terá agora que ser contabilizada no défice. “Se vamos agora descobrir novos prejuízos acumulados que justificam e tornam necessária a recapitalização e ainda não foram ao défice, a regra é a de irem. Estará em causa agora calcular esses prejuízos, se existem, compensar a parte que já foi ao défice – em aumentos de capital anteriores – e se houver remanescente, será levados ao défice. Penso que são claras as regras europeias. Pode só haver dúvidas quanto ao número de que falamos”, explicou Teodora Cardoso.
(DV)
A presidente do CFP encontra-se esta manhã a ser ouvida na Comissão de Orçamento, Finanças e Modernização Administrativa sobre o Orçamento do Estado para 2017, tendo aproveitado para explicar aos deputados as regras do Eurostat que estão em causa. “A Comissão Europeia e a regra do Eurostat é bastante clara mesmo não sendo específica para a CGD. Diz respeito ao facto de que se a necessidade de recapitalização resultar de prejuízos passados que ainda não foram compensados por aumentos de capital, ou seja que já foram ao défice, terão agora que ir ao défice”, começou por esclarecer.
Desta forma, e entre os prejuízos acumulados pelo banco público nos últimos anos, a fatia que não tiver sido compensada por anteriores aumentos de capital – o último foi em 2012 e disponibilizou à CGD o mínimo dos mínimos – terá agora que ser contabilizada no défice. “Se vamos agora descobrir novos prejuízos acumulados que justificam e tornam necessária a recapitalização e ainda não foram ao défice, a regra é a de irem. Estará em causa agora calcular esses prejuízos, se existem, compensar a parte que já foi ao défice – em aumentos de capital anteriores – e se houver remanescente, será levados ao défice. Penso que são claras as regras europeias. Pode só haver dúvidas quanto ao número de que falamos”, explicou Teodora Cardoso.
(DV)
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
O plano de recapitalização da Caixa Geral de Depósitos ainda não foi formalmente entregue à Direção Geral da Concorrência da Comissão Europeia que terá de dar luz verde final à operação, de acordo com informação recolhida pelo Observador.
O ministro das Finanças tinha avançado um calendário indicativo de dois meses para fechar a operação com Bruxelas. As declarações de Mário Centeno foram proferidas em meados de setembro, o que apontaria para a finalização do processo em meados deste mês. No entanto, o impasse sobre o futuro da administração da Caixa Geral de Depósitos pode complicar o desenrolar das discussões e o timing da própria recapitalização que o Executivo queria concluir em 2016.
O cenário de incerteza ganha força em caso de demissão do atual presidente da Caixa por causa da polémica sobre a entrega de declarações de rendimento e património. Isto porque foi António Domingues foi um protagonista essencial na negociação do plano da Caixa em Bruxelas.
O Observador questionou o Ministério das Finanças sobre a demora na definição final do plano, mas não obteve respostas. Já fonte oficial da DG Comp adianta apenas ao Observador que tem estado em contacto com as autoridades portuguesas sobre o assunto.
Plano de recapitalização da Caixa ainda não foi entregue em Bruxelas
O ministro das Finanças tinha avançado um calendário indicativo de dois meses para fechar a operação com Bruxelas. As declarações de Mário Centeno foram proferidas em meados de setembro, o que apontaria para a finalização do processo em meados deste mês. No entanto, o impasse sobre o futuro da administração da Caixa Geral de Depósitos pode complicar o desenrolar das discussões e o timing da própria recapitalização que o Executivo queria concluir em 2016.
O cenário de incerteza ganha força em caso de demissão do atual presidente da Caixa por causa da polémica sobre a entrega de declarações de rendimento e património. Isto porque foi António Domingues foi um protagonista essencial na negociação do plano da Caixa em Bruxelas.
O Observador questionou o Ministério das Finanças sobre a demora na definição final do plano, mas não obteve respostas. Já fonte oficial da DG Comp adianta apenas ao Observador que tem estado em contacto com as autoridades portuguesas sobre o assunto.
Plano de recapitalização da Caixa ainda não foi entregue em Bruxelas
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
Complimenti.
Sarebbe stato molto più grave imho (aumento dei tassi strutturale) se il movimento fosse stato accompagnato da una diminuzione dello spread.
Ultima modifica:
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
Rendimenti decennali
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
I tassi stanno andando su e giù in questi giorni ma non c'è un aumento particolarmente marcato: l'eurirs10y ieri stava 12 pb sopra il livello pre-Trump, come pure il 30y, più o meno dov'erano a fine aprile.
Ma l'aumento dei rendimenti su decennali e lunghi vari è ben più sostanzioso, e nettamente superiore a quanto visto la scorsa primavera.
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
I ventennali
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
Reuters fa il punto della situazione
Euro zone economic growth will hum along at a modest pace over the coming year, according to economists in a Reuters poll whose views have barely changed since the U.S. election and five months after Britain voted to exit the European Union.
Despite what appears to be a strong likelihood for a U.S. interest rate rise next month, the European Central Bank looks set to keep going the other way, announcing an extension to its quantitative easing programme beyond March 2017.
Following the shock from the Brexit vote, which hasn't hit either UK or euro zone growth yet in a material way, it appears that political uncertainty will continue holding back the euro zone from making any more progress on growth.
Italy holds a referendum on constitutional reforms less than a week before the ECB's policy meeting next month and there is a packed calendar next year with national elections scheduled in Germany, France and the Netherlands. (Full Story)
"The recent sequence of anti-establishment votes has brought upcoming political events in the euro area into sharper relief. With this in mind, and with both economic growth and consumer price inflation still tepid, we expect the ECB to delay and pray when it meets next month," Florian Baier, economist at Fathom Financial Consulting, wrote in a note.
Minutes from the ECB's last month meeting released on Thursday showed policymakers suggested that December would be a key month for the future course of policy. There was also evidence of concern about weaker wage growth, suggesting further easing is likely.
Over 80 percent of the economists in the Reuters poll who had a view on what the ECB would probably do in December picked an extension to the QE programme beyond the originally-planned end in March 2017 as the most likely option.
Some of those economists suggested the central bank would need to make technical adjustments to its quantitative easing programme to widen the universe of eligible bonds it can buy.
A few respondents said the ECB could expand its monthly QE amount from the current 80 billion euros or change the composition of assets it buys. Only one forecaster said the ECB would make no further changes to policy.
The continued focus on monetary stimulus runs against growing calls for a fiscal response to economic trouble.
Britain is likely to rely on fiscal policy in the future, according to a separate Reuters poll, which also concluded decisively that the Bank of England won't cut interest rates or increase the size of its asset purchase programme again any time soon.
This week, the European Commission called for modest fiscal easing in the euro zone. But it would be difficult to achieve politically as Germany, which is running a surplus but has committed itself to fiscal austerity, is the only country in a position to make a difference.
The latest poll of over 60 economists showed the currency bloc will maintain its current 0.3 percent quarterly growth pace for the third and fourth quarter this year, after a surprisingly robust start to the year. That is unchanged from the October poll.
But over three-quarters of the respondents who answered an extra question said the risks to their growth forecasts were skewed more to the downside and gave a 15 percent probability of a recession over the coming year, up from a 10 percent chance given last month.
The outlook for inflation remained weak, too. Inflation, likely to average 0.2 percent this year, will only manage 1.3 percent in 2017, well short of the ECB's close to 2 percent target.
In the sample of over 50 respondents, not a single forecaster pegged inflation at 2 percent over the coming year.
Euro zone economic growth will hum along at a modest pace over the coming year, according to economists in a Reuters poll whose views have barely changed since the U.S. election and five months after Britain voted to exit the European Union.
Despite what appears to be a strong likelihood for a U.S. interest rate rise next month, the European Central Bank looks set to keep going the other way, announcing an extension to its quantitative easing programme beyond March 2017.
Following the shock from the Brexit vote, which hasn't hit either UK or euro zone growth yet in a material way, it appears that political uncertainty will continue holding back the euro zone from making any more progress on growth.
Italy holds a referendum on constitutional reforms less than a week before the ECB's policy meeting next month and there is a packed calendar next year with national elections scheduled in Germany, France and the Netherlands. (Full Story)
"The recent sequence of anti-establishment votes has brought upcoming political events in the euro area into sharper relief. With this in mind, and with both economic growth and consumer price inflation still tepid, we expect the ECB to delay and pray when it meets next month," Florian Baier, economist at Fathom Financial Consulting, wrote in a note.
Minutes from the ECB's last month meeting released on Thursday showed policymakers suggested that December would be a key month for the future course of policy. There was also evidence of concern about weaker wage growth, suggesting further easing is likely.
Over 80 percent of the economists in the Reuters poll who had a view on what the ECB would probably do in December picked an extension to the QE programme beyond the originally-planned end in March 2017 as the most likely option.
Some of those economists suggested the central bank would need to make technical adjustments to its quantitative easing programme to widen the universe of eligible bonds it can buy.
A few respondents said the ECB could expand its monthly QE amount from the current 80 billion euros or change the composition of assets it buys. Only one forecaster said the ECB would make no further changes to policy.
The continued focus on monetary stimulus runs against growing calls for a fiscal response to economic trouble.
Britain is likely to rely on fiscal policy in the future, according to a separate Reuters poll, which also concluded decisively that the Bank of England won't cut interest rates or increase the size of its asset purchase programme again any time soon.
This week, the European Commission called for modest fiscal easing in the euro zone. But it would be difficult to achieve politically as Germany, which is running a surplus but has committed itself to fiscal austerity, is the only country in a position to make a difference.
The latest poll of over 60 economists showed the currency bloc will maintain its current 0.3 percent quarterly growth pace for the third and fourth quarter this year, after a surprisingly robust start to the year. That is unchanged from the October poll.
But over three-quarters of the respondents who answered an extra question said the risks to their growth forecasts were skewed more to the downside and gave a 15 percent probability of a recession over the coming year, up from a 10 percent chance given last month.
The outlook for inflation remained weak, too. Inflation, likely to average 0.2 percent this year, will only manage 1.3 percent in 2017, well short of the ECB's close to 2 percent target.
In the sample of over 50 respondents, not a single forecaster pegged inflation at 2 percent over the coming year.
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
Alcuni passaggi del discorso che Draghi terrà oggi alla conferenza bancaria di Francoforte (dal sito Bce).
A second reason to remain alert is that despite the recovery in growth and employment, the persisting output gap is still keeping inflation dynamics weak. The October inflation rate stood at 0.5%. While this marks the highest level recorded in almost two years, it remains far below the ECB’s objective. And while we expect headline inflation to continue rising over the coming months, much of this increase will be driven by statistical factors related to the mechanical unwinding of the extreme oil price declines a year ago. We do not yet see a consistent strengthening of underlying price dynamics.
Our objective is – and will remain – a rate of inflation below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Going forward, our assessment will depend on whether we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation towards that objective. And that means that inflation convergence towards 2% is durable, even with a reduction in monetary accommodation. Inflation dynamics, in other words, need to be self-sustained.
And this brings me to the third factor which calls for prudence over the outlook: the fact that the euro area recovery still relies to a considerable degree on accommodative monetary policy. The recovery in credit is being facilitated by a more resilient banking sector, but the impetus comes from our monetary policy.
Our measures and their effective transmission underpin our outlook for growth and inflation. According to staff estimates, our measures will raise the inflation rate by more than half a percentage point, on average, over 2016 and 2017. And they will contribute to increasing real euro area GDP growth by more than one and a half percentage points cumulatively between 2015 and 2018. In other words, monetary policy remains a key ingredient in the reflation scenario we foresee for the euro area in the coming years.
Conclusion
So even if there are many encouraging trends in the euro area economy, the recovery remains highly reliant on a constellation of financing conditions that, in turn, depend on continued monetary support. The ECB will continue to act, as warranted, by using all the instruments available within our mandate to secure a sustained convergence of inflation towards a level below, but close to 2%.
We also have to recognise that we operate under a still significant degree of uncertainty. Whether the economic recovery becomes more solid, and how quickly inflation dynamics become more self-sustained, depends not just on the current monetary policy stance, but also on other policies, as I have discussed on several other occasions. Restoring a sense of direction – and therefore confidence – would be the simplest and yet most powerful way to deliver economic stimulus.
The state and prospects of the euro area recovery
A second reason to remain alert is that despite the recovery in growth and employment, the persisting output gap is still keeping inflation dynamics weak. The October inflation rate stood at 0.5%. While this marks the highest level recorded in almost two years, it remains far below the ECB’s objective. And while we expect headline inflation to continue rising over the coming months, much of this increase will be driven by statistical factors related to the mechanical unwinding of the extreme oil price declines a year ago. We do not yet see a consistent strengthening of underlying price dynamics.
Our objective is – and will remain – a rate of inflation below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Going forward, our assessment will depend on whether we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation towards that objective. And that means that inflation convergence towards 2% is durable, even with a reduction in monetary accommodation. Inflation dynamics, in other words, need to be self-sustained.
And this brings me to the third factor which calls for prudence over the outlook: the fact that the euro area recovery still relies to a considerable degree on accommodative monetary policy. The recovery in credit is being facilitated by a more resilient banking sector, but the impetus comes from our monetary policy.
Our measures and their effective transmission underpin our outlook for growth and inflation. According to staff estimates, our measures will raise the inflation rate by more than half a percentage point, on average, over 2016 and 2017. And they will contribute to increasing real euro area GDP growth by more than one and a half percentage points cumulatively between 2015 and 2018. In other words, monetary policy remains a key ingredient in the reflation scenario we foresee for the euro area in the coming years.
Conclusion
So even if there are many encouraging trends in the euro area economy, the recovery remains highly reliant on a constellation of financing conditions that, in turn, depend on continued monetary support. The ECB will continue to act, as warranted, by using all the instruments available within our mandate to secure a sustained convergence of inflation towards a level below, but close to 2%.
We also have to recognise that we operate under a still significant degree of uncertainty. Whether the economic recovery becomes more solid, and how quickly inflation dynamics become more self-sustained, depends not just on the current monetary policy stance, but also on other policies, as I have discussed on several other occasions. Restoring a sense of direction – and therefore confidence – would be the simplest and yet most powerful way to deliver economic stimulus.
The state and prospects of the euro area recovery
Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
In visita oggi al parlamento portoghese, Moscovici tira fuori il violino.
“Quero que o otimismo português seja justificado”, disse Pierre Moscovici sobre as previsões de crescimento para a economia realizadas pelo governo. Na audição parlamentar que decorre em Lisboa, o comissário europeu dos assuntos económicos referiu ainda que “Portugal é o melhor aluno” entre os que ainda estão no braço corretivo do Pacto já que o desvio detetado no plano orçamental para 2017 é muito pequeno.
Na audição sobre o pacote de outono do Semestre Europeu (ciclo de 2017), o antigo ministro das Finanças francês fez uma série de elogios ao governo. Constatou que o crescimento previsto para 2017 que está no orçamento é de 1,5%, acima dos 1,2% da Comissão Europeia. “Quero que o futuro prove que o otimismo português é justificado”, comentou.
(DV)
“Quero que o otimismo português seja justificado”, disse Pierre Moscovici sobre as previsões de crescimento para a economia realizadas pelo governo. Na audição parlamentar que decorre em Lisboa, o comissário europeu dos assuntos económicos referiu ainda que “Portugal é o melhor aluno” entre os que ainda estão no braço corretivo do Pacto já que o desvio detetado no plano orçamental para 2017 é muito pequeno.
Na audição sobre o pacote de outono do Semestre Europeu (ciclo de 2017), o antigo ministro das Finanças francês fez uma série de elogios ao governo. Constatou que o crescimento previsto para 2017 que está no orçamento é de 1,5%, acima dos 1,2% da Comissão Europeia. “Quero que o futuro prove que o otimismo português é justificado”, comentou.
(DV)
