Turkey’s central bank has slashed its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point as part of emergency measures aimed at softening the blow of the coronavirus crisis on the country’s $750bn economy. The central bank’s monetary policy committee lowered its main one-week repo rate to 9.75 per cent after holding an emergency meeting on Tuesday. It also announced that it would provide some funding at an even cheaper rate to banks that meet certain lending targets. Other measures taken included reducing the mandatory amount of reserves that commercial banks must hold with the central bank if they meet certain credit growth conditions and extending the maturity of swap mechanisms that allow banks to exchange dollars for lira. Turkey has repeatedly reduced interest rates over the past eight months, even as a recent uptick in inflation pushed real rates into negative territory, as president Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to reboot the economy after a painful 2018 currency crisis followed by a recession. The central bank had said in recent months that its room to further cut rates was limited. But, announcing Tuesday’s fresh reduction, it said that a sharp fall in international commodity prices, weakening global trade and the recent travel restrictions imposed by many countries battling the spread of the coronavirus all increased the likelihood that Turkey’s year-end inflation rate would be lower than expected. It also said that a recent period of economic “rebalancing” had “increased the resilience of the Turkish economy against unfavourable shocks”.
Although Turkey has so far suffered only a limited coronavirus outbreak, with 47 confirmed cases as of Monday night, some analysts said that the central bank’s steps were merited given the risk of a global recession as well as the impact of measures aimed at limiting the virus’s spread. Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, an investment bank, said that Turkey’s stimulus package was “definitely justified” given that Turkish tourism was likely to be “crushed” by the coronavirus. Turkey hosted 52m visitors bringing in $34.5bn in revenue last year, but its tourist industry is braced for a severe hit if stringent travel limitations imposed across Europe remain in place for many months. Europe is also Turkey’s main trading partner, and a slump in demand on the continent would dent the country’s exports. Meanwhile domestic consumption, another key driver of the Turkish economy, is likely to be hurt by government measures aimed at limiting the spread of the virus, including the closure of theatres, cinemas, bars, gyms and certain types of cafés and restaurants. Jason Tuvey, of the consultancy Capital Economics, said that rate cuts and other stimulus measures by central banks across the world had given Turkey the scope to reduce rates. But he warned that the country would have to balance the desire to stimulate the economy with the need to maintain stability in the Turkish lira given the country’s large stock of external debt — $172bn is set to fall due in the next 12 months. “The concern is that, given the country’s external liabilities, it is more vulnerable in a risk-off environment,” he said. “Turkey has a poor eternal position and as financial conditions tighten banks may struggle to roll over their debts. We saw severe strains during the currency crisis in 2018 and the banking sector is in a much worse position than it was then.” The Turkish lira has been caught up in a broader sell-off of emerging market currencies, falling to its lowest level against the dollar since its 2018 crisis.