Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 1 (14 lettori)

[ferdo]

questa me le voglio studiare... vedo un prezzo di 42.25...cedola 8%, vuol dire che a giugno te la ritrovi in carico a 38.3.. ora scarico il prospetto, magari mille euro di scommessa li metto anche io

ma la paga la cedola?!?!

Mi rispondo da solo:
da post di Dante di fine dicembre:

"... In 2008 WestLB posted a net profit. Therefore, WestLB has to pay not only on 30.12.2009 (as known to us), but also on 30.03.2010 and on 30.06.2010. Interest is 8%, payable in quarter annual arrays. So in the next 6 month one gets 10% of 40 (current price) back.

WestLB will probably post a small loss for 2009 and will cancel payments for one year, starting from 01.07.2010 on. This seems to be overly priced in."

Da altro post della notte scorsa:
"More good news from WestLB today. I have indication that the loss in 2009 will be small. German banking stabilisation has inserted 672 million EUR in 2009 to a silent participation (pari passu with hybrids) and will only have to write down <1% of this. Remember that german HGB Gaap is the basis of profit participation and downwriting in case of losses. WestLB can, must and will write up hidden reserves to make up for a loss of up to 600 Million under IFRS. Also, I advice you once again to switch from the 6%-€ hybrids to the 8%-$ hybrids at current prices. $-hybrid XS0216711340 is also much more liquid. This hybrid still is my favorite with good upside potential."

Dante Allemis, is it sure that there will be no payment from 01.07.2010 on, or is it still unclear?

 

[Zorba]

Quale??

Non lo dico, poi non mi dai piu' le quotazioni

 

[Mais78]

Non lo dico, poi non mi dai piu' le quotazioni

Se ti riferisci alle AXA per me possono stare a 70 anche tutta la vita Pagano cedola 7% cumulativa che mi va piu' che bene, anzi meglio cosi', cosi' non cedo alla tentazione di vendere per un 10/20% di gain!

 

[bosmeld]

Banche greche -NATIONAL BANK OF GREEK-

Allora ragazzi questa sera, mi sono visto un pochino le banche greche

anche se effettivamente la situazione che sta attraversando il paese sappiamo tutti che non è delle migliori.

faccio diversi post, per essere più chiaro



INIZIO DA NATIONAL BANK OF GREEK
(che così a occhio mi sembra la migliore)


National Bank of Greek è al momento una banca molto forte in greciea
ha vinto anche il premio Bank of the Year Awards 2009”.


apparte questo, la banca ha un utile MOLTO SOSTANZIOSO


qui ci sono i dati salienti dei primi nove mesi

9‐month 2009
 Net profits in 9m 2009 totalled €1 010 million (‐17%)
 Pre‐provision profits grew to €2 129 million in the first 9 months of 2009,
+15% yoy
 Net profits of €301 million in Q3 2009
 €5 billion net increase in domestic lending yoy, equivalent to +12% credit
expansion
 €2.2 billion new mortgage loans in Greece since the start of the year, 41% of
the total market, and 69% of the total increase in outstandings
 €1.7 billion in lending via the SME Guarantee Fund (TEMPME) program in
2009, equivalent to 1/3 of the total program
 €4 billion in new deposits in Greece ytd, bringing the Group’s loan‐to‐deposit
ratio to 94%
 45% of the Group’s profit in Q3 derives from its international affiliates
 Finansbank: 9 month profits of €332 million, equivalent to 33% of total Group
profits
 SE Europe: profitability in all countries, despite adverse conditions
 €1.5 billion in new liquidity from the first covered bond issue by a Greek bank
 Top‐class capital adequacy ratio: Tier I of 12.2%


Link ai 9 mesi
http://www.nbg.gr/wps/wcm/connect/0...ERES&CACHEID=02218f804069f28eb70cff40d66dc4cf


ci sono inoltre diverse cose molto positivo.

hanno fatto adc a Luglio 2009 per €551,838,075 che ha logicamente rafforzato la patrimonializzazione della banca.

qui info riguardo a Adc

NATIONAL BANK


Un altra cosa molto interessante è che hanno fatto inoltre tra giugno e luglio un opa cash sui loro titoli ibridi.

qui link sui risultati dell'opa

Vedi l'allegato Risultati Opa su ibridi National Bank of Greece.pdf



Qui ci sono invece i titoli perptui di National Bank of Greek
(al momento Moody's da come rating agli Ibridi A2 cmq sono in ONWATCH per possibile Downgrade)

MI SONO LETTO TUTTI I PROSPETTI CON GRANDE RAPIDITA' E SEMBRANO ESSERE TUTTI TITOLI NON CUMULATIVI SENZA LOSS ABSORBTION.

XS0172122904 Euribor 3m+1,75% (cedola trimestrale) call 11/07/2013 poi Euribor 3m+2,75%

XS0203171755 irs10a+0,125% max 8% call 03/11/2014 (cedola semestrale)

XS0203173298 irs10a+0,125% max 8,5% call 03/11/2014 USD (cedola sem)

XS0211489207 6% fino al 16/02/2010 call 16/02/2015 poi 4*(IRS10a - IRS2a) min 3,25% max 10%

XS0272106351 6.2889% call 08/11/2016 poi Libor 3m+2,08% (pound)


a chi interessa inserisco i prospetti nell'apposito thread.


P.s non so se vi siete accorti che hanno pagato nell'opa fatta a luglio 2009 gli irs a 60

 

[ferdo]

Bos: OPA su IRS di NBG:
e l'hanno fatta a 60 anche se erano quotati 30 o 40 ...

 

[Zorba]

Merrill Lynch Places Four Greek Banks In ΄Grey List΄


Merril Lynch placed four Greek Banks in the grey list in terms of fundamental strength, in a report dated 11th January 2010.

The firm sees Alpha as one of the stronger Greek banks especially after its recent rights issue and its track record in terms of profitability and growth is very good. It also believes the Greek bank has reasonably strong protection parameters with the big tail risk event for Alpha, in addition to any further stress emanating from the Greek sovereign, would be problems in Romania.

Eurobank is seen as one of the top domestic Greek banks, strong in retail banking, SMEs and managed savings. ML notes that it is ranked No.2 by assets in Greece, the management generally highly considered while it is historically a very profitable bank. Still, it adds that SE European exposure in particular will remain an area of concern for the foreseeable future.

On NBG, ML highlights the market positioning which is second to none in Greece and the loan-to-deposit ratio, at 104% signifies that the bank remains a repository of the nation’s savings (30% overall deposit market share). SEE expansion has included Turkey, “which is in our view better to have than most of the countries that the Greek banks have expanded into. Turkey now accounts for 10.6% of loans. However, Finansbank is a profitable and well managed bank.”

On the risk side,”budget deficit, at 12.7% of GDP, will inevitably impact the GDP growth negatively however we think it only has limited impact on the current investment case for Greek banks”

Finally, on Piraeus Bank, the firm sees a good domestic position in Greece. “Piraeus Bank reported Tier 1 and total capital ratios of 9.3% (Dec-08: 8%) and 11.2% (Dec-08: 9.9%) respectively.

Still, ML notes that the NPL ratio and it expects provisions to remain high in the coming quarters.

“Though the company is guiding that the NPL deterioration may have peaked, we’d prefer to be cautious on that as we are expecting possible austerity measures to hit all the banks’ loan quality,” it says.

 

[Mais78]

Per me non ha senso andare ad impelagarsi con la grecia...a meno di prezzi super stracciati

 

[Zorba]

UBS Cuts Target Prices For Greek Banks

In a report dated 4th December 2009, UBS cuts its target prices for Greek banks.

This comes after a similar report by Goldman Sachs.

More specifically, the firm retains its “Buy” rating for Eurobank, Alpha Bank and Marfin, cutting the TP to 13.5 euro (from 16.5 euro),12.8 euro (from 14.1 euro) and 3.5 euro (from 4.3 euro).

For NBG it also supports its “Neutral” rating (TP at 23 euro from 31 euro) and its lowers its rating for Piraeus Bank, to “Neutral”.

For ATEBank, it retains its “sell” rating.

UBS says that the Greek banks have underperformed the European sector by c12% during the last month, on fears of: (a) uncertainty over Greece’s fiscal position; (b) the banks’ reliance on the ECB discount window; (c) credibility issues owing to a spill-over effect from consecutive public finance restatements.

The brokerage also seems to think that fiscal consolidation is the main justifiable reason for concern. “The Greek fiscal deficit now stands at 12.7%. The new government is both willing and able to bring this below the 9.1% target in 2010, in our view. However, further reduction will require structural reforms which are very likely to result in higher taxation, lower growth and compromised asset quality,” it notes.

 

[bosmeld]

Banche greche -Efg Hellas-

un altra banca greca è Efg Hellas (NE AVEVAMO GIA PARLATO)

anche lei nei primi 9 mesi dell'anno risulta in attivo, ma non certo ai livelli di National Bank og Greece....



cmq questi i risultati principale dei 9 mesi.

3Q09 net income rises by 26.6% q-o-q to €111m
Pre provision profits increase by 6.4% to a record high of €414m in 3Q09
Operating expenses decline substantially by 6.6% y-o-y, the best performance in the Greek
market
Formation of loans past due (90+) declines substantially
Νet income stands at €280m in 9M09
Capital adequacy is strong and increasing:
o Common equity grows by €880m ytd to €4.5bn
o Total Tier I ratio expands by 1.3% in 3Q09 to 11.5% and CAD ratio strengthens by
1.2% to 12.7%, ratios which are among the highest in the domestic sector
Raised €2.8bn in 2009 by tapping the international markets, without the guarantee of the
Greek State


qui link
http://www.eurobank.gr/Uploads/pdf/EurobankEFG 3Q09ResultsPressRelease.pdf


anche qui, c'è una notizia interessante, nonostante tutto sono riusciti ad emettere un nuovo perpetuals a fine luglio 2009

Vedi l'allegato Nuovo emissione ibrida 2009 Efg.doc



questi sono le loro emissioni perpetuals:

MI SONO RAPIDAMENTE LETTO TUTTI I PROSPETTI E MI SEMBRA SIANO SENZA LOSS ABSORBTION E NON CUMULATIVE

moody's da a questi perpetuals rating A3 sono però ON Watch per possibile Downgrade

DE000A0DZVJ6 irs10a+0,125% max 8% call 18/03/2010

XS0232848399 taglio 50k 4,565% call 02/11/2015 poi euribor 3m+2,22%

XS0234821345 6% call 09/01/2011 poi euribor3m+2,5%


NUOVO P. emesso a luglio 2009 Moody's gli ha dato rating A3

XS0440371903 taglio 50k 8,25% (interessi trimestrali) call 29/10/2014

IL PROSPETTO è UN PO PIU COMPLESSO E SI PARLA DI POSSIBILE CONVERSIONE AZIONARIA, a quest'ora di leggermelo non mi va proprio....


cmq questo è il sunto;

[FONT=&quot]The securities will have an issue date of 29.7.2009 and they are perpetual and callable by the issuer after 29.10.2014, and, subject to certain conditions, exchangeable at the option of the bondholder and the issuer after 29.10.2014 into Eurobank EFG common shares at a 12% discount to the share market price during the period preceding the exchange and are guaranteed by Eurobank EFG. The issue pays a fixed annual coupon of 8.25%ù


[/FONT]peraltro il 26/11 sembrano abbiano emesso ancora 100 milioni di un altro p. che mi sembra uguale a quest'ultimo
[FONT=&quot]


[/FONT]

 

[ferdo]

In attesa che Dante mi risponda, mi sono letto un po' Bondboard:
stesso clima di corsa allo shopping ... forse quella che sembra rimasta un po' indietro è la Fuerstenberg DE000A0EUBN9 (che Bos ha già - a quanto l'hai presa e quando?), con possibilità di salita di qualche punticino ancora (però loro mi sembra che le paghino un po' meno di noi !!!) ...

Considerazione:
se è vero che WestLB stoppa cedole da giugno (ammesso che si verifichi) sarà quello il momento di entrare ...