S&P 500 Valutazione dell' indice S&P500 in base ai fondamentali

[alingtonsky]

March 28, 2010

Below are the current year-end S&P 500 price targets for major Wall Street strategists which are polled weekly by Bloomberg. At the start of the year, the average year-end 2010 S&P 500 price target was 1,225. Four of the thirteen strategists have increased their year-end targets, however, and the average now stands at 1,243.

....
As shown, Deutsche Bank has the highest year-end target at 1,325, while Credit Suisse has the lowest at 1,125.

Consensus 2010 S&P 500 Price Target -- Seeking Alpha

 

[alingtonsky]

April 15, 2010, 1:21

Think equity markets have come too far to fast? Think again, says David Bianco, the head of U.S. equity strategy and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
In a note to clients Thursday, Mr. Bianco raised his 12-month target for the S&P 500 to 1350, after revising his earnings forecast higher.
He raised his 2010 earnings expectation to US$80, from US$75 and his 2011 target to US$88 from US$85. In 2012, he expects profits to hit $94, up from $90 previously.

"The most significant part of our revised S&P 500 EPS outlook is the US$3 boost to 2011 EPS," he said in a note to clients.
"This boost reflects higher S&P 500 top-line growth with more margin expansion from lower credit costs and more operating leverage than we previously assumed."
Mr. Bianco said the S&P 500 will reach 1300 late in 2010, but added that his bullish stance rests upon two key outlooks:
First, the S&P EPS recovery has to outpace the US GDP recovery. Second, the Fed stays pat on interest rates until early 2011 and long-term treasury yields stay under 5% through 2011.
First quarter earnings will validate his first key outlook, he said, while the next several months should improve the clarity on outlook two.
"If 10yr treasury yields stay under 4% this summer then the market should grind higher led by mega-cap stocks," he wrote.

Merrill strategist raises S&P 500 target to 1350 - FP Trading Desk


Yahoo! Babel Fish - Traduttore on line | Tradurre testi e pagine web

 

[alingtonsky]

26.04.2010 14:21

UBS has raised its year-end 2010 S&P 500 price target to 1,350 from
1,250 due, citing strong economic and earnings results. 'Over the past several
months, economic activity and earnings results have come in better than
expected. As a result, we are increasing our 2010 and 2011 S&P 500 operating
EPS estimates to $90 and $100, respectively, from $83 and $92,' said Jonathan
Golub, chief strategist at UBS.

=> STOCKS NEWS US-UBS raises year-end S&P 500 target <=


Since the beginning of 2010, the U.S. economy and earnings results have been meaningfully stronger than expected. As a result, the market has rallied sharply, with the S&P 500 up 9% year-to-date, and 15% since its February lows. Moreover, the “junk trade” has re-emerged, with the most economicallysensitive companies and lower quality stocks outpacing the broader market.
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Our upward revision to 1,350 is fueled by an increase in our S&P 500 operating EPS estimates for 2010 and 2011 to $90 and $100, respectively, from $83 and $92.
​

With respect to valuation, we expect multiples to hold their ground in the face of rapidly improving earnings through the remainder of the year. As such, our year-end price target is based upon a forward P/E multiple of 13.5x applied to our 2011 EPS estimate of $100.

FT Alphaville UBS and its 1,350 S&P target


UBS S&amp;P Target 260410
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[alingtonsky]

April 30 -- Barton Biggs, who recommended buying U.S. stocks last year when benchmark indexes sank to the lowest levels since the 1990s, said he anticipates total profit from Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies of $88 to $90 a share this year, and $100 in 2011.
His 2010 forecast compares with the average projection of $78.43 from 12 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Profit at companies in the S&P 500 surged 176 percent during the final three months of 2009, the most in Bloomberg data going back to 1998, and analysts estimate a 44 percent increase for the first quarter of 2010. Earnings estimates among equity analysts for companies in the index rose 10 percent on average in April, the largest monthly increase since at least 2006.
“The earnings are really coming in strong in the U.S.,” Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “I’m still very positive.”
Biggs, whose flagship fund returned 37 percent last year, three times the industry average, said he also expects the biggest stock rally since the 1930s to continue. The S&P 500 has surged 75 percent from a 12-year low in March 2009 after governments around the world spent trillions of dollars to stimulate growth.
“We’re going to have a pretty decent market,” said Biggs, the chief global strategist for New York-based Morgan Stanley until 2003.
He didn’t give a prediction today for how much stocks could rally.
...

Biggs Sees S&P 500 Profit at $88-$90 a Share in 2010 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

 

[alingtonsky]

12/03/10

...
This week we’ve received shiny new S&P 500 targets from equity strategy shops at Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and UBS, to name a few.
And the analysts are — wait for it, cynical Wall Street observers — bullish!
Goldman Sachs slapped a 2011 year-end price target of 1450 on the S&P 500, that’s up some 19% from the broad index’s close of 1221.53 on Thursday. Surveying the 2011 financial and economic landscape — or at least the terrain they think they see — Goldman analysts describe a “superb backdrop” for U.S. stocks in 2011, with real GDP growth forecasted at 2.7% and inflation staying low.

Goldman’s view on stocks is a bit more optimistic than Bank of America Merrill Lynch, where analysts see the S&P 500 ending next year at 1400, or up 15% from Thursday’s close. (Before the new target, published Thursday, BofA previously had a 12-month target of 1350 on the S&P.) That rise would come despite Bank of America’s expectation that unemployment will barely budge, ending 2011 at 9.5%. “In 2010, despite little improvement in the unemployment rate from 2009 end, S&P 500 sales and [earnings per share] climbed strongly back up to pre-recession highs as business conditions improved aided by strong global growth, lower credit costs and even a rebound in consumer spending as those with jobs reopened their wallets,” wrote BofA analysts, by way of explanation.
Meanwhile, over at UBS, analysts pegged their year-end 2011 target for the S&P at 1325, or 8.5% higher than Thursday’s close. UBS didn’t previously have a published S&P target for the end of 2011. “Our forecast assumes solid revenue growth on the back of 2½-3% U.S. real GDP, strong cost controls, and a pickup in buybacks,” wrote UBS stock watchers, in a note out Wednesday.
Of course, as any self-respecting professional prognosticator knows, it’s imperative to leave yourself plenty of wiggle room. And so far analysts have done just that, suggesting any number of reasons their calls might be off the mark.
Goldman analysts opine about the potential for euro-credit “contagion,” as well as freakouts tied to the parlous state of U.S. finances. Likewise, UBS analysts are expecting problems — should they arise — to erupt from the bond markets. “We believe that credit disruptions — whether they emanate from the banking system, the mortgage market, U.S. municipalities, or from abroad — will be the likely culprit should the stock market behave poorly in 2011,” they wrote.

http://www.thetradingreport.com/201...of-america-ubs-here’s-where-stocks-go-in-‘11/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...00-rising-to-1-450-through-december-2011.html


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